⛳ PGA DFS: Course Preview for The Hero World Challenge 2021
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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We’ve come down to our last two tournaments of the year, but before we get to the last tournament, let’s first head to the Caribbean Islands; The Bahamas. This week we will see a minimal field of 20 golfers competing for one of the most fabulous trophies (it’s a tiger). Highlighting the field are top golfers like Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, and Brooks Koepka.
Albany Golf Club is 7,300 yards; par 72 played on Bermuda Greens. The course has 52 sand bunkers, with five holes where water is in play, and the rough is only sitting at 1.5″. “Changes to the course since last year include a new tee on No. 1, which is 25 yards back; new joint tee on No. 9/17 with No. 9 playing 25 yards longer and 17 playing about the same distance, but angle plays the hole across the water; flowers planted around pro tees.” – GCSAA. This event has been played five times now, with the average winning score sitting at about 20 under par. This should play reasonably easily as the fairways are extremely wide. Still, as you get closer, the greens do become smaller, so I would be eyeing guys that are incredibly accurate in their approach game or a golfer that is incredible around the green.
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Birdies or Better
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Collin Morikawa ($11,500) – As I mentioned above, I’m looking for guys that are dialed in on their irons and are coming in with excellent form. I know we haven’t seen Mori since Zozo, where he finished 7th, but last week Mori took his talents to the Euro Tour in where he won at DP World Tour Championship Dubai. Mori has never played here before, but if you’ve been following him in his career, you know he doesn’t need the experience to dominate.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Viktor Hovland ($9,900) – This is where you want to play Hovland, like my friend DVA would say. Hovland has only played in three events this year and has already secured a win at Mayakoba. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Hovland is ranked 1st in Driving Accuracy, 1st in Birdies, 2nd in Ball Striking, 3rd Off The Tee, and 4th at Approach. This sums up the type of golfer I am looking for in this course.
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Sam Burns (1.15X) – I’m curious as to where his ownership will be, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is Sam Burns’s season. Before I get to the Important Stats Model, Sam has gained 2.12 total strokes per round in his last 24 rounds while topping one win and two top 10 finishes this season. That alone should sell itself. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Burns is ranked 2nd Tee To Green, 3rd in Birdies, 4th in Ball Striking, 5th Off The Tee, 5th at Approach, and 5th in Putting.
PGA Dark Horse Target
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,600FD/$6,600FD) – Fitz hasn’t been playing his best golf, at least in the PGA, that is. But I don’t think that’s anything to worry about after finishing running up at DP World Tour Championship Dubai. Did we also forget the best putter on this surface is *drum roll* yep, Fitzy. I want to bypass the most recent stats on Fitzy and focus on who he was prior to his last two events, which is a strong T2G game followed by an elite Putter and flawless at Around The Green.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, Approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational from left to right and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. For example, cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you with all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.