🏈 NFL DFS Stacks for Week 15
Welcome to the weekly DFS game stacking strategy article. At this point, most DFS regulars understand the concept of stacking, that is rostering multiple players from the same team on your DFS roster. The idea is to take advantage of positive correlation to maximize your potential ceiling. While this has become more commonplace, using point spreads and projected point totals to stack entire games is less prevalent. That’s what this article will focus on each week.
When game stacking, it’s important to look at the outcomes you expect and tell yourself a story about how it gets there. For each game I’m looking to stack below, I’ll include the point spread, the projected over/under point total, and the implied narrative that gets the game to that outcome. From there, I’ll explore the stacking options that would provide the biggest DFS boost if the narratives come to fruition. Let’s dive in!
Cardinals (-12) at Lions
Over/Under: 47.5
Narrative: Arizona onslaught
There aren’t many games on this slate projected to be high-scoring shootouts, but at least we can target the team with the highest team implied total. Kyler Murray always has the ceiling to finish as the top quarterback on the slate, and with the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, you can build a cheap super stack with him this week. Christian Kirk and A.J. Green stand to benefit the most without Hopkins, so I like adding both of them to the stack. Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore each offer some upside as well and can be considered as stacking options. There’s no need to run it back with anybody from Detroit.
However, if you want your lineup to stand out, you can build a game stack around Jared Goff. No, seriously. There’s a chance that Arizona gets out to a huge lead on the back of multiple James Conner rushing touchdowns, allowing Goff to compile plenty of garbage time stats. I don’t think it’s crazy to roster Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Conner for a cheap game stack that you can surround with studs from other games.
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Packers (-7) at Ravens
Over/Under: 43.5
Narrative: Rodgers stays red hot
As I detailed in my Yahoo picks article, Aaron Rodgers has been red hot lately, and the Ravens’ secondary has been obliterated by injuries. A stack with Rodgers and Davante Adams is an obvious target, but adding Allen Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling could add gasoline to the fire. On the other side of the ball, Mark Andrews always has a chance to finish as the top-scoring tight end on the slate; he makes the perfect bring-back option.
Lamar Jackson is looking extremely questionable to play Sunday due to his ankle injury. If he does play, the possibility that the ankle injury limits his mobility will likely suppress the number of people willing to play him in DFS. This gives us a chance to secure Jackson at an unusually low roster percentage. He may have to lean more than usual on his arm, so stacking him with Andrews and Marquise Brown could hit big if they’re all active. This stack would allow you to run it back with Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon on the other side as leverage off Davante Adams.
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Bengals at Broncos (-3)
Over/Under: 44.5
Narrative: Burrow airs it out in Mile High
The Broncos defense is stout, but as road underdogs, Joe Burrow could be forced to air it out in the Mile High City. If he does, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are in play, and both can be added to the stack. Mixing in Tyler Boyd or C.J. Uzomah is a great way to differentiate in large-field tournaments. On the Denver side, you have to choose between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon to run it back with.
I’m not willing to build a stack around Teddy Bridgewater and his receiving weapons, so let’s just move on.
Don’t forget to deep dive the entire slate with this week’s Bottom of the Barrel!
Saints at Buccaneers (-11.5)*
Over/Under: 46.5
Narrative: Division battle hits the over
*There aren’t many great games to stack this week. This game is on Sunday night, so it’s only available on certain slates.
It’s Week 15, so by now you know it’s usually a good idea to stack Tom Brady with his pass-catchers. Chris Godwin has been hyper-targeted lately, Mike Evans is one touchdown behind Cooper Kupp for the league lead, and Rob Gronkowski is tied with Mark Andrews for third-most fantasy points/game at the tight end position. Mix and match as you please. The best part about making this a true game stack is running it back with Alvin Kamara, who had 27 rush attempts and a 24% target share in his return from injury last week.
On the flip side, building a game stack around Taysom Hill is a way to get leverage on the field. He may not pass the ball much, or well, but when he does, it’s likely going to Alvin Kamara. It’s rare to stack a quarterback and running back, but it makes sense here. On the other side, you can run it back with Tampa’s most likely touchdown scorers Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, or Rob Gronkowski.
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