🏈 Yahoo NFL Week 11 DFS Picks
Welcome to the weekly Yahoo DFS picks article. The whole point of this article is to find the best plays to fit in your $200 team budget on the Yahoo main slate each week. Sometimes that means paying up, sometimes it means finding value, and sometimes it means taking some dart throws. Let’s dive in.
Josh Allen vs. IND – $41
Allen is at the top of the salary scale again, but I’m still fine paying all the way up for him. He did just for himself with nearly 22 fantasy points, despite throwing just two touchdowns and putting up his lowest rushing performance of the season. He should get it going on the ground again this week, but I’m more interested in what he might do throw the air against the Colts, who have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league.
Patrick Mahomes vs. DAL – $36
Mahomes finally exploded last week, and while his salary climbed a bit, he’s still just the fourth most expensive QB on the slate. He’s even a dollar cheaper than his counterpart on the other team, Dak Prescott. The matchup in Arrowhead has the potential to turn into the shootout of the year. Mahomes and Dak both stand to benefit, but I prefer the home quarterback that doesn’t have the option of handing the ball off to Zeke.
Aaron Rodgers @ MIN – $33
While the fantasy world is buzzing over AJ Dillon, Aaron Rodgers still runs the Green Bay offense. Getting him into your DFS lineup gives you leverage over everybody rostering Dillon since they aren’t likely to stack Rodgers with the powerful running back. The last time Rodgers played the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium he lit them up for 364 yards and four touchdowns.
Joe Burrow @ LV – $28
Burrow is set to face a Raiders team that just got torched by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The funny thing is, Burrow has a higher TD rate (7.0%) than Mahomes (6.1%) on the season. That’s good enough for third-best in the league. I love the game environment and will be targeting stacks with Burrow and his pass-catchers in tournaments.
Justin Fields vs. BAL – $21
I get that Fields started slow, but this $21 salary is entirely too cheap given his recent play. He’s averaging 57.3 yards on the ground over his last four games and is coming off the best passing performance of his rookie season before the bye. Rostering Fields allows you to pay up elsewhere and take down a tourney if he outperforms his meager salary.
Christian McCaffrey vs. WAS – $40
Even with his sky-high salary, I’m ready to fully trust CMC again. He’s finished with 21 fantasy points last week, even without scoring a touchdown. He’s as safe as it gets in cash games and has the ceiling to take down a tournament if some positive touchdown regression hits.
Dalvin Cook vs. GB – $27
There’s usually at least one egregious misprice on Yahoo, and this week it’s Cook. He’s averaging 22.4 touches/game on the season, which makes him a lock for cash lineups at his relative discount salary. Cook also has a strong history against Green Bay, averaging 1.6 touchdowns/game over his career against the Packers.
D’Ande Swift @ CLE – $24
Last week Swift became just the second player this season to see over 35 touches in a single game, joining Derrick Henry. The Detroit offense runs through Swift, both on the ground and through the air, so he should have no problem paying off his salary against a Cleveland team that’s given up huge fantasy points to Joe Mixon and Rhamondre Stevenson in consecutive weeks.
AJ Dillon @ MIN – $20
Patrick Taylor @ MIN – $10
Dillon is the free space on this week’s slate, and I’m perfectly fine eating the chalk. He finished as the top-scoring fantasy running back last week in a game where he shared the backfield with Aaron Jones for 3+ quarters. He’s set to smash this week with the backfield to himself.
Actually, he won’t have the backfield completely to himself. Dillon won’t get 100% of the backfield touches. Patrick Taylor, who’s been on Green Bay’s practice squad since last season, is set to work as the second-string running back. He’s a tournament-only play, but all it will take is one big play or a fall into the endzone for Taylor to pay off his bare minimum salary.
Jeff Wilson Jr @ JAX – $14
With Elijah Mitchell recovering from finger surgery earlier this week, Wilson could be in line for a bigger role in the valuable San Fransisco backfield. He only put up 28 rushing yards in his season debut last week, but we’ve seen him put up week-winning performances over the previous two seasons. He could put up another one this week if he leads the Niners backfield against Jacksonville.
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Davante Adams @ MIN – $35
Adams is a great cash game play as usual, but I really like the idea of stacking him with Aaron Rodgers in tournaments. He has the highest target share in the league (34%) but has only found the endzone three times this season. That could change against the Vikings this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a patented Rodgers-to-Adams multi-touchdown game.
Ja’Marr Chase @ LV – $29
Tee Higgins @ LV – $15
I mentioned earlier how much I love Burrow as a tournament QB, and a key to success in tournaments is stacking your QB with some pass-catchers. Chase, the fourth-highest scoring fantasy wideout on the season, is the obvious choice and has the most upside. Higgins, however, has seen practically the same adjusted target share and is due for some positive touchdown regression. I love the idea of double-stacking both of them with Burrow in large-field tournaments.
A.J. Brown vs. HOU – $23
Brown had a rough outing against the Saints last week, but he’s in a great bounce-back spot against Houston in Week 11. The Texans don’t have anybody on defense capable of hanging with Brown, so don’t be surprised if he busts free for a few of his signature game-breaking plays.
Jaylen Waddle @ NYJ – $16
Waddle leads Miami, and all rookies, with 86 targets on the season. He’ll continue to see strong target volume with DeVante Parker and Will Fuller still sidelined. Despite all the targets, Waddle has yet to break a big play with his blazing speed. The volume makes him a great play in cash, while his untapped upside gives him potential in tournaments.
Hunter Renfrow vs. CIN – $15
Over the last two weeks, Renfrow has produced practically identical stat lines that included seven targets, nine catches, and a touchdown. Similar production should be in store yet again, as he and the Raiders take on the Bengals in a game with a strong 49.5 point over/under.
Michael Gallup @ KC – $15
After missing the last eight weeks due to injury, Gallup returned to see a 15% target share in Week 10. That carries more weight in the high-powered Cowboys offense, especially with the matchup against Kansas City this week. At just $15, he’s an affordable way to get exposure to the highest projected scoring game of the week.
Travis Kelce vs. DAL – $30
Kelce carries a hefty salary, as usual, but it’s tough to imagine a better matchup for him this week. He’s objectively the best tight end in all of fantasy football and playing in the most fantasy-friendly matchup of the week. Don’t overthink this one if you can find the salary space.
T.J. Hockenson @ CLE – $18
It’s tough to trust Hockenson after his zero-point dud last week, but at just $18, I’m willing to give him a shot in tournaments. It’s easy to forget that he finished as the top-scoring fantasy tight end before Detroit’s bye just three weeks ago. He can easily pay off his mid-range salary against the Browns, who have given up the third-most fantasy points to the position over the last four weeks.
Adam Trautman @ PHI – $10
Let me present Trautman as my dart-throw tight end of the week. He’s averaged a healthy 6.3 targets/game over the last three weeks. He gets a dream matchup with the Eagles, who have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Miami Dolphins @ NYJ – $16
Miami’s defense has been dominant in back-to-back weeks. Now they get to face a Jets team that was worth targeting even before Joe Flacco was named starting quarterback. They’d be worth paying up for this week, but you don’t even have to stretch your budget with their mid-tier salary.
Cleveland Browns vs. DET – $16
The Browns come in at the same salary as Miami with a similarly strong matchup, and they get to play at home. Jared Goff isn’t exactly a stud quarterback, but the Detroit offense gets further downgraded if he isn’t able to suit up on Sunday. Myles Garrett and company could be causing having for the Lions all afternoon.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NO – $11
The Eagles defense has been up and down over the past three weeks, but they should fair just fine at home against New Orleans this week. The Saints are still rolling with some combination of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB, and this game carries the lowest over/under of the week at just 43 points.
Make sure to check out this week’s Bottom of the Barrel article if you’re playing on DraftKings or FanDuel!