The Northern Trust at TPC Boston
Playoffs time!! For the next 3 weeks, we’ll have the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Our 1st stop will be in Boston, Massachusetts where we’ll have 125 players competing for the Northern Trust trophy. This event will have a cut, however, the next 2 events will not be having a cut. Next week the field will have the top 70 players based on FedEx position for the BMW Championship and the following week at the Tour Championship we’ll have the top 30.
Moving forward – defending champion Patrick Reed will be in the field alongside Tiger Woods, Bryson, and Morikawa. Also as a reminder, this is the first time TPC Boston will be hosting The Northern Trust. Please be careful when looking at event history. Also on that note, TPC Boston was also played on Dell Technologies Championship.
This course is 7,342 yards, par 71 designed by Arnold Palmer on Bent greens. It was renovated in the past 5 years by Gil Hanse & Brad Faxon. The easiest holes here are 17, 18, 1, and 2 (easy birdie spree) 32-44% of shots are birdies. Even some opportunity for eagles – 2% chance. The most difficult holes are holes 11 and 14 with an average of 22% chance of a bogey. The fairways are fairly wide and driving accuracy averages about 65% of the time. The rough isn’t too tough to hit out of, so missing fairways here won’t be too detrimental. Alright, let’s get to it fam:
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained Putting – Bent Greens
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Approach Shots From 125-150 Yards
- Justin Thomas ($11300) – Can’t ignore the fact that JT has been on fire. He did lose 3.5 strokes of putting at the PGA Championship, however, he usually doesn’t lose strokes in putting. JT won here in 2017 and in the last 5 events, JT has gained 7.8 strokes T2G, 4.3 on APP, 1.9 ARG, and 1.7 OTT. In my overall model, JT is ranked 1st and ranked 3rd on Bent greens.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($11000) – This course is heavy on ball-striking so on that note – let’s go with one of the best ball strikers in the game. Bryson won at this course in 2018 and he’s only gotten better since. Bryson finished 4th at the PGA Championship gaining over 7 strokes OTT & T2G. And he is loaded with an arsenal of things for this course. Overall ranked 1st OTT, 1st in Putting, 1st in BoB%, and 1st in Par 4 scoring.
- Daniel Berger ($8900) – This is going to be my favorite golfer and I’ll probably be exposed to him way too much. In the last 8 events, Berger has had five top 5 finishes and two top 10 finishes. He won at Charles Schwab and finished 2nd at St. Jude. He’s gained 5.8 strokes T2G, 2.8 on APP, 1.8 OTT, and 1.2 ARG. Ranked 2nd in my overall model –ranked 2nd in BoB% and Par 4 scoring.
- Abraham Ancer ($7700) – This price is ridiculous for how well Abe has been performing. Although he finished 43rd at the PGA Championship I think after the small break he took he’s going to come out on fire. In the last 5 events, Abe has gained 3.2 strokes T2G, 2 on APP, and 1.8 OTT. In my overall model, Abe is ranked 1st in P3: 175-200 yards and 12th
- Jason Day ($9300) – It’s a stretch, but… Jason Day has been teasing us with the Jason Day of 2015-2016. In the last 5 events, Jason has improved drastically on his biggest weakness – his irons. He’s gained 3 strokes on APP! Let alone he’s finished 4th at the PGA Championship, 6th at St. Jude, 4th at Memorial and 7th at WorkDay. He’s obviously fixed his game and is looking for a win.