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UFC 251 DFS Picks, Projections, and Fight Metrics

I am so excited to breakdown the UFC 251 PPV with my picks, projections, and our Rise or Fall fight metrics (CLICK HERE). But first, I want to recognize “Rexdagreat” for his incredible $30,000 victory in PGA DFS this past weekend. What sharp member!

UFC 251 Fight Metrics

Alright, our Fight Metrics card has received a makeover. We think it will be glorious to research with and receive our fight picks and player pools.

Jorge Masvidal vs Kamaru Usman

The Nigerian Nightmare is defending his title against Gilbert Burns’ replacement, Gamebred. That’s right. The veteran, Jorge Masvidal gets a title shot on short notice against one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world.

The 2019 award winner, Masvidal, is hungry and dangerous. However, I have cause for concern here as he’s not been preparing for a five round fight. Because of this, I believe he comes out and tries to throw bombs and catch Usman standing up before he can take the fight to the mat.

If you target Masvidal, take the Inside the Distance prop at +340 as well, because he has a low probability of winning in Round 4 or 5 should it go that far. On the flip side, Usman and his -300 odds are likely to win this in the later rounds should he be able to avoid the left hook or flying knee of Masvidal.

Advantage Usman with a win by unanimous decision.

New Ronin Tier!

Of course, in addition to the Fight Metrics, our Legends Tier will receive ownership projections, projections for FanDuel and DraftKings, and my personal Exclusive Cheat Sheet with my MME strategy, fight groups for lineup building, and MME exposures.

The Ronin Tier will receive CeeGee’s Lineup Building Blocks to help you with providing you with suggest half builds, as well as his beautiful Tiered Rankings sheet!

Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway

This is a rematch after a unanimous decision victory for Alexander Volkanovski the last time that these two met. In that fight, a massive 291 strikes were landed in total by the two fighters.

I don’t see this one going the distance. With a match against one another, they know each other now. Someone will catch someone with a bomb and it’ll be lights out. No matter which side you land on, I personally am taking the ITD prop with my fight pick.

They aren’t terrible different when looking at Significant Strikes Landed Per Min, with Volkanovski landing 6.15 SLpM to Holloway’s 6.66 SLpM. But Volkanovski only absorbs 3.14 per minute while Holloway absorbs 4.45. On top of that, Alexander is a much better grappler, with 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes.

No matter how you slice and dice this fight up, I think we see it finished with a knockout of sorts.

Advantage Alexander Volkanovski with a Round 2 TKO/KO

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