The NFL Week 2 DFS Review for DraftKings and FanDuel will make you wish you had a DeLorean so you could back in time, change your picks, and win a Milly. Unfortunately, that’s not how life works. We take our bumps, evaluate our process, and move forward. That’s my plan here. Go over my picks, understand how I got there, and try to understand what went right or wrong. As we maneuver through this wild season we want to analyze our process so we can improve our game in the long run. Remember, DFS is a marathon, not a sprint.
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I don’t typically pay up for QBs in tournaments. I always try and work my way to the cheaper options so I can maximize as much upside as I can. But I’m not falling in love with the sub 6k options on Draftkings this week. So I find myself on Josh Allen. 6.7k is a hefty price tag for a QB but I think it’s one worth paying up for with his upside. Despite a couple of hiccups (2 fumbles) last week against the Jets Allen rushed for a team-high 57yds and had his first 300yd passing game. He also tacked on 3 total TDs. That sound you hear is bossman DFSnDounts making his “OH” face. You love to see it. This week he gets a rebuilding Dolphins team that is still #bad. Cam Newton just wrecked this defense on the ground with a 75yd day. That should have Allen and company licking their chops at this tasty matchup. As if you needed more reasons to play Allen the Bills situation-neutral pace ranked 6th in the league for week 1. Meaning even when they jumped ahead their game plan didn’t let up. Don’t overthink this one. Continue riding the Josh Allen money train with glee!
Stacking Options: Allen/Diggs/Brown is a less sexy version of
Ryan/Julio/Ridley but one with similar upside since Allen can do so much more with his legs. Not to mention I don’t see as much talk about Diggs/Brown combining for 19 total targets. BUY.ALL.THE.SHARES.
Well, this might be my best call ever (shout out to me). Granted this is only my second year writing DFS. But boy oh boy did this play hit. And not only that but the stack hit as well. Allen had an amazing game going 24/35, 417yds, and 4TDs (37.48 DKpts). That’s insane in its own right. But the rest of the stack went off as well with Stefon Diggs going 8-153-1 (32.30 DKpts.) and John Brown going 4-82-1 (18.20 DKpts). Through two weeks we’ve seen the Bills with a significant lead (vs the Jets), or in a shootout (vs the Dolphins and produce an ample amount of fantasy goodness. Roster Allen with Diggs and/or Brown with full confidence going forward.
I feel like Hines is the ultimate leverage play this week. Teammate Jonathan Taylor is the talk of the town. He’s been getting all the hype. Marlon Mack is out for the season paving the way for Taylor to be the man, right? Not exactly. Take a step back, breathe, and let’s take a look at the big picture. Ownership at running back will be heavily concentrated on Taylor with his sub-6k price tags on FD and DK. The study hub currently has him projected as the highest owned running back on the slate. Not shocking.
This brings me to Hines. I almost feel like he’s become the lost man in all of this. When Mack went down last week Taylor didn’t end up with all the carries or targets and both backs played the same number of snaps (20) in the second half. Expect that split to continue going forward. Taylor was named the starter this week but Coach Frank Reich also said Hines would still be “a big part of the offense”. Working in both backs’ favor is Phillip Rivers “check-down” tendencies. Don’t forget there were 17 total targets distributed to that Colts backfield, last week, and Taylor isn’t getting all of that. Hines is cheaper (slightly), projected for substantially lower ownership, and is still “a big part of the offense” in a game with a projected total of 48.5. Btw, the Vikings defense is all kinds of bad. This backfield is going to feast and I’m putting my chips on the ultimate leverage play, Nyheim Hines.
Stacking options: Go big or go home with a Hines/Indy DST stack!
Well, I’m not sure where to start here. Oh yea, that’s right. FRANK REICH LIED TO US. Last week after Jonathan Taylor was announced as the starting back for week 2 Reich came out said that Hines would still be “a big part of the offense”. I guess by “a big part of the offense” he meant Hines would be reduced to 1 touch, Taylor WOULD get the majority of the carries, and Jordan FREAKING Wilkins would wind up with nine total touches. You know what, this is totally my fault. I should be able to read Reich’s mind like Professor X and know exactly what he’s going to do. What was I thinking after Hines involvement in the offense the week before? Silly me *rolls eyes*. Looks like this is Taylor’s backfield going forward and Wilkins and Hines will be reduced to EXTREMELY limited roles. Yea, that’s all I got. I’m still ticked about this one.
As of this writing, Kenny Golladay is still sitting out of practice. He sat out during the same time frame last week and ended being scratched. It’s looking unlikely that he plays. Even if he does suit up, um yeah, just don’t. Green Bay won their opening day game but not without some noticeable red flags. Adam Thielen ripped them up to the tune of 6-110-2. Kirk Cousins was “unleashed” for 259yds through the air and even ran for another 34yds. Yea, Kirk Cousins. 2020 is wild y’all. This bodes well for Matt Stafford and company.
Marvin Jones is in a great spot to capitalize on this especially after last Sunday’s rough outing which saw him get 8 targets but only turn them into 4-55. YUCK. Not at all what you were hoping for if you used him. But opportunity is knocking here. The game total opened at 46 ½ and has since gone up to 49 ½. Vegas is expecting points and with the Lions running game playing whack-a-mole it’ll be on the passing game to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Look for a bounce-back game that comes with depressed ownership. According to the study hub, Jones is currently looking at sub 5% ownership. I can see that slowly moving up. But with this being a 13-game slate I’d expect the lower owned Wide Receivers to stay put. Now is your chance to buy!
Stacking Options: I love the idea of going with Stafford/Jones/Cephus and bringing it back with Davante Adams. The Packers star WR will be highly owned but including him in a stack like this makes for a great leverage play in large-field tournaments.
Jones didn’t have a terrible day. It was an improvement from Week 1. But despite Golladay being out again Jones only saw six targets en route to a 4-23-1 (12.30 DKpts) day. BUT we wanted more. Especially in a game where the Packers hung 42pts on the Lions. It’s clear that Jones isn’t a primary option in the passing game in these situations.
“Fool me once…strike one. But fool me twice…strike three” – Michael Scott
While we’ve been displeased with his production thus far there is a bright side. Kenny Golladay is on track to be back this week. This should instantly open up the passing game for the Lions and MIGHT actually open up opportunities for Marvin Jones. I’d take the wait and see approach before slotting him in though. Of course, I do enjoy torture and running back to things that burned me. So I may go back to the well in MME. Not SE though. I’m not that crazy.
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When Hurst came to Atlanta talk revolved around him getting the targets Austin Hooper left behind. In week 1 Matt Ryan distributed 52 total targets. Hurst targets, 5. This was in a shootout game where the Flacons scored 25pts. Not encouraging. In these situations, I like to target (Welcome to PacingPetes drinking game) the down player. Because Hursts role didn’t change. Every time Matt Ryan dropped back Hurst was running a route. EVERY.TIME. I’m kidding. NOT every time. Just 81% of the time (not kidding). That’s a high percentage for a guy who only got five targets. That just tells me that the opportunity wasn’t there in week 1. But it could very well be there in week 2. The Cowboys will be without Leighton Vander Esch this week. This is where opportunity will knock for Hurst. Expect him to make his money over the middle against a struggling defense. This game is currently projected to be the highest-scoring on the slate. Plus both teams play at a high situation-neutral pace ranking top 10. But it wouldn’t shock me if Hurst sees sub-5% ownership. That’s what we want in a game like this where fireworks will be lighting up on both sides. Hursts price is palatable and one you shouldn’t forget when building those winning lineups.
Stacking Options: I’m not going to make this hard. Ryan/Ridley/Hurst and bring it back with Zeke or if you want to go cheaper drop down to Gallup. PRINT.THAT.MONEY.
The Cowboys/Falcons game turned into the shootout we were hoping for. THANK GOD. Hurst was a beneficiary producing a stat line of 5-72-1 (18.20 DK pts) on eight targets. Pretty much what we were looking for in this game. Did we want more? Sure. But in these situations, we’ll take it. It’s a great start for Hayden Hurst and one that shouldn’t drive his price tag wild. He only went up $100 on DK. Which should keep his ownership modest going forward. Don’t expect the Falcons passing game to regress any time soon. Opportunity remains for Hurst who offers slate break potential in this high powered aerial offense.
Remember, “Trust the Process” and we’re on to Week 3!