Welcome to my Week 3 GPP picks for Draftkings and Fanduel! My sole focus here is to help you identify options we can use in large field GPPs as well as Single Entry tournaments. Did you know all Ronin members receive $20 in credit to use at Fantasy Cruncher every month they sub with us? Subscribe HERE! Now, let’s dig in!
Matt Stafford – (Draftkings $6300), (Fanduel $7300)
Vegas sure does see fireworks this weekend. Of the thirteen games on Sunday’s main slate, only four are projected for a game total under 45. Even the Titans/Vikings game has reached 49 ½ (for the record that feels like a total trap game). The highest implied totals on the slate reside in the Seahawks/Cowboys and Lions/Cardinals matchups. These games are going to hold a ton of ownership and for good reason. Three QBs in these games rank in the top 5 of Draftkings QBs, Russell Wilson (2), Dak Prescott (4), and Kyler Murray (5). While attention will be concentrated on these three players I believe that their pricing (Wilson – $7300, Prescott – $7200, and Murray – $6800) will help flatten ownership. I can’t see them exceeding more 20% ownership especially in tournaments and even that is pushing it.
This brings me to Stafford and his generous price coupled with the fact that his first two games of the season have been less than impressive. But I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt considering his start to the season has come without alpha Wide Receiver, Kenny Golladay. Well that ALL changes this week and I for one am excited. Golladay is FINALLY slated to be back and that is great news for this offense in this potential shootout. Worried about Patrick Peterson? Don’t be. Week 1 he faced a depleted Niners WR corps. Week 2, he got torched by Scary Terry McLaurin for a 7-125-1 line. The Cardinals are ranked 16th when it comes to pressure, per PFF and the Lions Offensive line is middling when it comes to not getting Stafford killed with a 5.9% adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders. Little pressure will help open things up for Stafford and with Golladay back the passing game will be able to fully utilize their aerial arsenal.
Stacking Options: The stacks are aplenty in this game and I want ALL the Lions. Okay, maybe not ALL the Lions. But give me a Stafford-Golladay-Hockenson double stack and run that baby back with Hopkins as the Cardinals alpha WR is sure to have a ton of ownership. Did I mention that last year in Hockenson’s rookie debut against the Cardinals he dropped 6-131-1? ALL.IN.
James Conner – (Draftkings $6700), (Fanduel $7100)
Last week I thought Nyheim Hines was the ultimate leverage play. It sure felt like it with so much ownership being concentrated on Jonathan Taylor. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Ok, I’ll stop talking about Hines.
“Repress, replace, move on” – Douglas Fogerty, Single Parents (If you haven’t watched this show I highly recommend it).
For the record, A-A-RON Jones ended up as the ultimate leverage play and kudos if you played him. Taking a queue from last week I’m sticking with the leverage strategy. *stands on soapbox* I LOVE JAMES CONNER THIS WEEK! Seriously, I totally do. Let’s get into it. Back in week 1, we saw Conner play for like a minute, leave cause of injury, come back and then leave again. I don’t know about you guys but I was totally getting Ross and Rachel “will they, won’t they?” flashbacks. Is he hurt? Is he not hurt? All I know is Benny Snell ended the night with 19 carries for 113yds. The “Conner is injury prone” crowd were doing victory laps all over twitter. One week later the Snell honeymoon ended and Conner was back as the lead dog finishing with 16-106-1 and even got a couple of targets. Not only did Snell’s touches go down but he was out-snapped by Conner 77% to 15%. When Conner is healthy he is no doubt the main guy in this Steelers backfield. This should only add confidence to what we already know. The Steelers do not run an RBBC. They stick with a lead guy and don’t look back. Look for that to continue this week when the Steelers face a #bad Houston Texans team that is graded as third-worst against the run AND ninth-worst when it comes to tackling. Don’t forget CEH wrecked this team in his DEBUT, 25-138-1 and then FOUR Ravens backs combined for 13-128. Conner’s current ownership is hovering around 5% in the study hub. This is great news for a lead back who’s team is a home favorite against a team that can’t stop the run and when they try tackling are not very good at it. Do you want this week’s A-A-RON play? James Conner is right there. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!
Stacking Options: I love the bring back option but I’m not loving the options on the Texans this week. So lets just double stack this one. The Texans weakness on the ground doesn’t mean they’re safe through the air. They didn’t exactly hold down Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, granted those guys are from a completely different planet. But stacking a low owned Ben with Conner and alpha WR Diontae Johnson will put you on the right side of leverage.
Allen Robinson – (Draftkings $6200), (Fanduel $6900)
ARob has had an interesting start to the season. His first two games have been nothing to write home about finishing with 12.3 and 6.3 DKpts. At his price tag, you want more especially when the guy is the primary skill player on his team. But his QB is also Mitchell Trubisky, so we can give him a pass? I’m willing to ignore these games and remind myself that ARob is a superior talent at WR and better days are ahead. This Sunday can definitely kick start that. This week the Bears face an EXTREMELY bad Falcons defense. I’m not even talking about their “deer in headlights” moment that cost them last week’s game against the Cowboys (seriously, WTF was that?). Anyway, back to ARob. This Falcons secondary has been torched by enemy WRs. In week 1 Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf combined for 12-187-1 and then Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb dropped 12-206. Also working in Robinson’s favor is that he doesn’t have a Metcalf or Lamb to compete with for catches. You could say that Anthony Miller will stand to benefit as well. But I see this as the ultimate “get-right” spot for ARob. His price hasn’t moved, in fact dropping $300 from his opening day tag ($6500). The study hub currently has him projected to be around 15% owned. But that still feels low. I’m confidently going to roll with this alpha WR against a bad defense in a game where the Bears will most certainly have to play catch-up. Slot him in now, thank yourself later.
Stacking Options: Trubisky will get some run in GPPs and that’s more indicative of his price. I just don’t trust the guy even in large-field tourneys that run 150 LUs. Nah, I’m good. Just give me ARob as a core GPP play in my lineup. But you can add him to a Ryan/Ridley/Hurst stack where ARob is the bring back. I LOVE that option.
Logan Thomas – (Draftkings $3700), (Fanduel $4900)
Thomas is a great bounce-back candidate this week as the Washington Football Team heads to Cleveland as (-7) road underdogs. Thomas was a popular week 2 DFS play after his opening day outing. But was shut down by the Cardinals defense finishing with a stat line of 4-26. It’s an encouraging sign that despite the down game Thomas still finished with nine targets. This week he gets to face a defense that has been lit up by opposing tight ends. Mark Andrews had a fantastic opening day against the Browns going 5-58-2 and last week the Bengals tight ends combined for 11-87-1. With Washington projected to trail in this game opportunity will continue to be there and help Thomas build upon the 17 targets he’s already received to start the season. Fire him up with confidence.
Stacking Options: Another spot where I’m not particularly feeling great about including this pick in a stack. A lot of that has to do with Washington’s team implied total being so low (18 ¾). Thomas is more of a core GPP guy that will save you money for other spots on your roster.
Now let’s go build those lineups and win that money. Good luck everyone!
By: PacingPete (HIT ME UP IN DISCORD!)