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Monday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 9-28

Let’s dive into my Monday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. We have a showdown slate to wrap up Week 3. Let’s get into it!

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Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens O/U 54 BAL-3

Scenario 1: Game Stays Close

In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. I would favor Baltimore in this scenario. Baltimore currently ranks 2nd and 3rd in defensive efficiency against the run and pass while KC ranks 17th and 26th. For this scenario to work, I would roster the Baltimore Defense. In this theory, the Baltimore defense would be getting multiple turnovers and locking the Kansas City offense in a box. I would go with a 5-1 on DraftKings or 4-1 on FanDuel for roster construction. For the Baltimore side, I’d focus on Lamar JacksonMark AndrewsMarquise BrownMark Ingram, and Justin Tucker. for the Kansas City side, I’d focus on Patrick MahomesTyreek HillTravis KelceClyde Edwards-Helaire, and Harrison Butker. Be sure to roster the defense and the kicker from the team yo think wins the game in this scenario.

For the shootout, think of it as a game of ping pong. Chiefs score, Ravens score, Chiefs score, etc. This is the more likely scenario due to the high game total and close spread. For roster construction, I’d prefer a 3-3 build on DraftKings and a 3-2 build on FanDuel. Focus on players that you think have a chance to score multiple touchdowns. For Kansas City, I’m targeting Patrick MahomesTyreek HillTravis Kelce, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I’d include Demarcus Robinson in this group if Sammy Watkins is out. For Baltimore, I’m targeting Lamar JacksonMark Andrews, and Marquise Brown. For DraftKings, I want a Running Back, Wide Reciever, or Lamar Jackson in the Captain spot. For FanDuel, I want a Quarterback or Running Back in the MVP spot.

Scenario 2: Kansas City Dominates

In this scenario, we’re looking at a potential final score in the 30-3 range in favor of the Chiefs. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Raven at most. I’d lean towards Lamar Jackson due to the rushing upside. For Kansas City, I’m targeting Patrick MahomesTyreek HillTravis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Key in who you think will break this game wide open. I’m leaning more towards the passing game than the running game. If the Chiefs score often, it’ll be due to the big plays in the passing game. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman are my top plays in this scenario. They both have the ability to create big plays with their speed and could do so at any time. Lock in Harrison Butker and the Chiefs Defense in this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and kicking opportunities for Butker. For Captian on DraftKings, I’d favor Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce. For MVP on FanDuel, I’d roll with Patrick Mahomes.

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Scenario 3: Baltimore Dominates

In this scenario, Baltimore is going to route Kansas City to the tune of a final score of around 30-3. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Chief at most. I’d lean towards Travis Kelce because he sees a large volume of targets in every game. If Baltimore dominates, the running game will be cooking. We’re talking 100+ yards for Lamar Jackson, 100+ yards for Mark Ingram, and sprinkle in some love for J.K. Dobbins. For the Baltimore side, focus on Lamar JacksonMark IngramMark Andrews, and J.K. Dobbins. Lock in Justin Tucker and the Baltimore Defense in this scenario as you would the Chiefs’ side in scenario 2. Lamar Jackson is in play for both Captain and MVP spots due to his rushing upside.

FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups

For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. For groups, focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Tyreek Hill with Patrick Mahomes and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Chiefs will go pass-heavy and Mahomes will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.

See ya in discord,
TMay

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