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NFL Early Week 4 Sneak Peek for DraftKings and FanDuel

Week 4 Early Outlook

It was a rough go for players who were in prime positions in week three. Let’s look over our week three plays and then move into week 4.

QB

Matt Ryan – 12.42 DK points / 12.18 FD points

Carson Wentz – 23.5 DK points / 23.5 FD points

Nick Mullins – 20.72 DK points / 17.72 FD points

RB

Miles Sanders – 14.7 DK points / 12.7 FD points

Jerrick McKinnon – 16.7 DK points / 15.2 FD points

Jonathan Taylor – 13.2 DK points / 12.7 FD points

WR

Dionte Johnson  – .9 DK points / .9 FD points

Ceedee Lamb – 11.6 DK points / 9.1 FD points

Robby Anderson – 10.5 DK points / 8 FD points

TE

Hayden Hurst – 7.1 DK points / 6.6 FD points

Logan Thomas – 7.1 DK points / 5.1 FD points

Jordan Reed – 4.3 DK points / 3.3 FD points

I’ll take my lumps on some of these calls, but I’ll pat myself on the back for a few of these calls as well. I was surprised to see Sanders and Taylor underwhelm in obviously good situations. We also got hit by a few injuries. McKinnon could have had a better day if not for a rib injury that kept him out of the fourth quarter. Dionte Johnson’s injury knocked him out of the Steelers game early. Hopefully, you were in the green as we move forward to next week.

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QB

Russell Wilson $7,800 DK – $9,000 FD

The guy who hasn’t received an MVP in his career is playing at an MVP level so far this season. He torched the Cowboys for another 5 touchdowns. He also possesses a rushing floor you like to see from a quarterback. This week he faces the Dolphins who sport a defense that is in the bottom third in DVOA against the pass.

Deshaun Watson $6,600 DK – $7,800 FD

Deshaun has been plagued by a terrible offensive line to begin the year. He’s been sacked at least 4 times each game this season. The remedy for this is facing a team with a whopping three sacks on the year. The Vikings have given up four passing plays of more than 40 yards, which tells me that they are susceptible to big plays. If the offensive line can get him some time, I can see Deshaun and Will Fuller hooking up on some big plays.

Josh Allen $7,300 DK – $8,600 FD

Josh Allen has been ridiculous to start the season. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in each game to start the season and has rushed for a touchdown in two of three games. He provides a rushing floor, just like the other quarterbacks we’ve looked even vultures short-yardage touchdowns. Playing against the Raiders with an over/under of 52.5, I will have exposure to Allen.

RB

Dalvin Cook $7,600 DK – $8,700 FD

The Texans defense has allowed the most yards on the ground through the first three weeks of the season. Last week was the first time Cook has gone over 20 carries the first time this season and it showed as he went 22/181/1. The Vikings should continue to feed Cook, especially against a team that gives up 5.2 yards per carry.

Kenyan Drake $6,000 DK – $7,000 FD

Lots of folks were burned by Drake in week two. The good – he touched the ball 19 times, 18 carries and one catch. The bad – Kingsbury has shown that he will not shy away from Kyler Murray getting goal-line work and took a 1-yard touchdown away from Drake this past Sunday. I don’t see Carolina being able to keep this one close. If Arizona jumps out to a lead, I’m going to cross my fingers and expect Drake to have the breakout we’ve been waiting for.

Carlos Hyde $5,300 DK – $5,700

This pick is dependent on Chris Carson’s status for next week. The Dolphins defense gives up 4.9 yards per carry and has allowed five rushing touchdowns through three games. I would fully expect Hyde to be chalk if Carson is out.

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WR

Lockett $7,000 DK – $7,500 FD / Metcalf $6,800 DK – $6,900 FD

Sunday’s game against the Cowboys showed the these two are going to pull at least 50% of the team’s targets. A plus matchup with high team total, don’t be afraid to go back to the well here.

Cooper $6,700 DK – $7,100 FD / Gallop $6,200 DK – $5,900 FD / Lamb $5,400 DK – $6,600 FD

The Cowboys are throwing the ball 47 times a game. These guys will continue to be involved in shootouts all season long and I don’t see that changing this week. These guys are being targeted 8+ times a game. Plant your flag on who you think will pop and move forward.

Cupp $6,700 DK – $7,200 FD / Woods $6,300 DK – $6,700 FD

Cupp is showing out two years removed from his ACL tear. While Woods continues to be involved rushing and catching the ball. Both receivers are averaging roughly 7+ targets a game. This week they face a Giants team that gave up nearly 350 yards passing to the 49ers. Although there is a lower team total we know where the targets are going and I wouldn’t shy away from this duo.

TE

Drew Sample $3,500 DK – $4,700 FD

Sample was a dud this weekend, but I think brighter things are on the horizon. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow has been forced to throw nearly 40 times a game. While Tee Higgins did catch two short touchdowns in the red zone I think there will be regression and Sample will be targeted like Uzomah was before he was injured.

O.J. Howard $3,300 DK – $4,800 FD

We know Howard hasn’t lived up the hype coming out of college. Gronk was recently asked about his thought on not producing in the passing game to which he responded that he was brought in to block. While he does have to fight for targets with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, it will not take much for him to pay off his salary.

Dalton Schultz $4,300 DK – $4,900 FD

The same notes that apply to the wide receiver group apply to Schultz. While I think he may be a bit more volatile he’s seen 6 and 10 targets the two games since Blake Jarwin went down.

-Arias

 

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