Welcome back to another edition of the Draftkings Milly Maker Report. Word on the street has it that this series is helping people out. The research I’ve done has helped me quite a bit through the first quarter of the 2020 NFL season.
I’ve covered how to use Vegas odds as a starting point for your lineups, some numbers below the surface, what to look for when building stacks, and drilling down on your QB pool. Today, I’ll go over ownership for the last two years (2018 and 2019) of regular season Milly Makers.
The numbers I use are from the first place lineups only. And I know the headline says “DraftKings Milly Maker Report” but the info from this series can be used on DraftKings or FanDuel and in low stake contests as well as the Milly Maker.
All of the information in the DraftKings Milly Maker reports is pulled using the FantasyCruncher Lineup Study feature in the PRO package. “FC” provides years of data that we can sift through to fine-tune our games. Wondering why the same user seems to always be at the top of your contests? Checkout their lineups with Lineup Study. Curious about the most common build in NBA Showdown slates? Look it up with Lineup Study. It’s such a valuable resource.
Ok, that’s enough out of me, let’s get to the numbers!
In 2018 there were no ownership projections in the Lineup Study. What we’ll look at here is the average lineup ownership percentage, the average number of players used from four ownership ranges, and how many players in the lineup were in the top 10 in ownership for the slate.
For 2019 there were projected ownership and actual ownership statistics. What we’ll look at here is the average projected lineup ownership percentage, average lineup ownership percentage, the average number of players used from four ownership ranges, and how many players in the lineup were in the top 10 in projected ownership and actual ownership for the slate.
Since there were no projected ownerships in 2018 I didn’t include stats related to that in the two-year average.
Here are my observations from looking at 34 Milly Maker slates:
*The actual own% is less than 100% 8 out of 34 times (23.5%)
*The actual own% is more than 130% 10 out of 34 times (29.4%)
*The projected own% is less than 100% 8 out of 17 times (47%)
*The projected own% is more than 130% 4 out of 17 times (23.5%)
The projected ownership seems to err on the side of caution and I believe that’s why you see a relatively high percentage coming in below 100% in 2019. When building your lineups in FantasyCruncher it’ll be ok if you like a stack but you’re seeing projected ownership of 70%.
I won’t say you can fade the players with the 10 highest ownership projections but maybe I am saying make a group with those players and limit the group to one or two players.
Let’s get that money.
See you in the green,