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Thursday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 10-8

Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. We have a showdown slate to kick off Week 5. Let’s get into it!

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears O/U 44.5 TB -3

Scenario 1: Game Stays Close

In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. This isn’t out of the question with the amount of injuries on the Tampa Bay side and the lack of talent from Foles. For the Tampa Bay side, I’m focusing on Ronald JonesTom BradyMike Evans, and  Rob Gronkowski. For the Chicago side, I’m focusing on David MontgomeryNick FolesAllen Robinson, and Jimmy Graham. I would toss in the kicker of the team that you think wins as well.

For the shootout, think of it as a game of ping pong. Bucs score, Bears score, Bucs score, etc. For roster construction, I’d prefer a 3-3 build on DraftKings and a 3-2 build on FanDuel. Focus on players that you think have a chance to score multiple touchdowns. For the Tampa Bay side, I’m targeting Ronald JonesTom BradyMike Evans, Scotty Miller, and  Rob Gronkowski. In 150 max, I would toss a couple darts at Cameron Brate and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. For the Chicago side, I’m targeting David MontgomeryNick FolesAllen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Darnell Mooney, and Jimmy Graham. For DraftKings, I want a Running Back, Wide Receiver in the Captain spot. For FanDuel, I want a Quarterback or Running Back in the MVP spot.

Scenario 2: Bears Dominate

In this scenario, we’re looking at a potential final score in the 30-3 range in favor of the Bears. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Buccaneer at most. I’d lean towards Mike Evans assuming he plays. If Evans is out, I’d go with Ronald Jones. I’m targeting David MontgomeryNick FolesAllen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Darnell Mooney, and Jimmy Graham. My top plays for this scenario are Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. If the Bears dominate, it will be through the air. Robinson has proven he’s and elite target and Miller has consistently gotten targets. Lock in the Bears Defense and Cairo Santos for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and kicking opportunities for Santos. For Captian on DraftKings, I’d favor Allen Robinson or Anthony Miller. For MVP on FanDuel, I’d roll with Nick Foles.


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Scenario 3: Buccaneers Dominate

In this scenario, the Bucs are going to route Denver to the tune of a final score of around 30-3. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Bear at most. I’d lean towards Allen Robinson due to his high volume of targets and big-play potential. The Bucs could dominate with either the running game or passing game with their balanced attack. I’m targeting Ronald JonesTom BradyMike Evans, Scotty Miller, and  Rob Gronkowski. My top plays in this scenario are Mike Evans and Ronald Jones. Evans is going to be the clear number one target in the passing game with Chris Godwin out and Ronald Jones got 26 total touches last week. Lock in the Buccaneers Defense and Ryan Succop for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and kicking opportunities for Succop. For Captian on DraftKings, I’d favor Mike Evans or Ronald Jones. For MVP on FanDuel, I’d roll with Ronald Jones or Tom Brady.

FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups

For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher just rolled out an update for groups that allows you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests. Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Mike Evans with Tom Brady and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Buccaneers will go pass-heavy and Brady will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.

See ya in discord,
TMay

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