We’re seven weeks into the 2020 NFL season so I wanted to do an audit of the DraftKings Milly Maker Report for the first quarter of the season. Next week I’ll drop a Milly Maker Report for the second quarter of the season and the first half of the season.
If you haven’t been following along I’ve analyzed 34 weeks worth of Milly Makers from 2018 and 2019 to see if there were any trends we could use to our advantage in 2020. Let’s get to it!
From the 34 contests, I checked out I found that 76% of Milly winning quarterbacks came from games with the five highest Vegas game totals on the slate. The first four weeks of the season have seen this trend hold.
If you want to get hyper-specific Week 1 saw game totals of 49, 48, 48, 47.5, 47.5, 44.5, and 44. If you count the 48 and 47.5 game totals individually then Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers don’t make the cut at 44.5. That would still mean that three out of four (75%) quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker came from the top five of games with the highest implied Vegas totals.
In 2018 there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker over 17 weeks. In 2019 the number increased to 14 different quarterbacks over 17 weeks. What I was trying to identify there is that there’s a select group of quarterbacks that can actually get you to the top of tournaments. And it’s less than half of the quarterbacks that take the field every Sunday.
The first four weeks of 2020 have seen Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott lead the Milly winning lineups. Unfortunately, injuries took Dak Prescott from our QB pool, but we still have access to guys like Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, etc.
In 2018 13 different defenses were on the opposing side of the first place winning quarterback. In 2019 there were 11 different defenses that allowed the Milly winning QB. I know this isn’t groundbreaking information but target good players against bad teams. WOW!
The first four weeks of the 2020 NFL season have seen Minnesota, Atlanta, Dallas, and Cleveland allow the top quarterback. Something to keep an eye on the second half of the season.
In 2018 14 different stack types took first place in the Milly Maker.
In 2019 there were 10 different stack types that took first place in the Milly Maker.
The first four weeks of 2020 have seen only one stack type take down the top spot in the Milly Maker: QB+2 WR+OPP WR. There’s not a lot to add here. Stack your quarterbacks with two of his pass-catchers and run it back with one from the other team.
I’ve talked about targeting quarterbacks from the games with the highest totals but let’s take it a step further. Here are a few trends from 34 slates worth of Milly Makers:
*The QB scored less than 30 fantasy points 10 out of 34 times (29.4%)
*The QB scored less than 25 fantasy points five out of 34 times (14.7%)
*The QB scored 35 or more fantasy points 11 out of 34 times (32.3%)
*The QB scored 40 or more fantasy points seven out of 34 times (20.5%)
*The QB attempted less than 30 passes five out of 34 times (14.7%)
*The QB attempted 40 or more passes 15 out of 34 times (44.1%)
*The QB attempted 50 or more passes six out of 34 times (17.6%)
Again nothing here should be shocking. You want guys that throw the ball A LOT. The quarterback also needs weapons that can convert the targets into big points. Sam Darnold throwing the ball 40 times isn’t the same as Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball 40 times. That’s not meant to be a dig at Darnold. It’s just that I’d rather have a guy throwing to Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce vs. Jamison Crowder and Chris Herndon.
Here are the numbers for the Milly Maker winning quarterbacks in 2020.
Russell Wilson is the low man on the list for pass attempts with 40 in Week 3. Again, we want guys that are slinging the pigskin like crazy.
Ownership, ownership, ownership. This is probably the most discussed (And IMO over-emphasized) aspect of DFS. “So and so will be chalk” (Highly owned in contests) “I’m gonna be overweight on this guy and underweight on this guy” and on and on. I believe proper roster construction is much more important than ownership but that’s a conversation for another time.
Let’s look at some ownership trends from 34 Milly Maker slates from 2018 and 2019:
Here are my observations from looking at 34 Milly Maker slates:
*The actual own% is less than 100% 8 out of 34 times (23.5%)
*The actual own% is more than 130% 10 out of 34 times (29.4%)
*The projected own% is less than 100% 8 out of 17 times (47%)
*The projected own% is more than 130% 4 out of 17 times (23.5%)
Here are the ownership numbers for the first four games of 2020:
We can see that the chalk smashed in Week 2. Outside of that, it’s the 0-19% range that makes up the majority of lineups. I’ve done some more research that hasn’t posted yet but QBs and DST are often in the 0-10% range so factor that in when constructing your lineups.
That’s all from me for now.
See you in the green,