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Thursday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 11-5

Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!

Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers O/U 48 GB -7

Scenario 1: Game Stays Close

In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. Given the spread, we should see a one-possession game.

For the San Fransisco side, there’s a lot of moving pieces with the mix of injuries and positive covid-19 tests. I’m focusing on Nick MullensJaMycal HastyJerrick McKinnonJordan ReedRoss Dwelley, and Trent Taylor. Assuming Jordan Reed is active, I expect him to be the go-to target for Mullens. I would anticipate McKinnon and Hasty to split carries as well.  I would not play both running backs together.

For a shootout, add Kevin White to your player pool. He is a MME only target for me.

For the Green Bay Side, I’m focusing on Aaron JonesAaron RodgersDavante AdamsAllen Lazard, and Robert Tonyan. If Aaron Jones is inactive, Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin are in play. Salary will not be a factor with all of the value on the 49ers which allows me to focus on the high volume Green Bay targets.

For a shootout, add Marquez Vales-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown to your player pool. They are MME only targets for me. Neither gets targets at volume and you’re relying on touchdown variance.

If you are predicting a low scoring day, I would roster the defense of the team you think wins and kickers are more in play than other scenarios.

If you are predicting a shootout, I would roster the kicker of the team you predict to win.

Scenario 2: Packers Dominate

According to the NFL Study Hub, the 49ers allow the bulk of fantasy points in the passing game. This is a perfect spot to roster Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. This becomes a clear single entry target stack, for me, if Aaron Jones is inactive. Again, salary is going to be irrelevant with the abundance of value on the 49ers. I’m locking in the Packers Defense for this scenario. I would roll a 5-1 roster construction on DraftKings and 4-1 roster construction on FanDuel for this scenario.

For the 49ers side, I would roll Trent Taylor at $400 on DraftKings and Jordan Reed at $5,000 on FanDuel. Both players should be in line for targets in the passing game. Taylor at $400 allows you to do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup.

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Scenario 3: 49ers Dominate

This is the last likely scenario given the spread and the lack of available talent for the 49ers. However, Green Bay is allowing 29 points per game to opposing running backs, per NFL Study Hub, and I would imagine San Fransisco would lean on the running game in this spot.

I’m focusing on Nick MullensJaMycal HastyJerrick McKinnonJordan ReedRoss Dwelley, and Trent Taylor. I am not against pairing Mullens with either running back but, I would limit my exposure to only one of McKinnon and Hasty. Jordan Reed would be my preferred pass catcher assuming he is active. I’m locking in the 49ers Defense and Robbie Gould for this scenario. If they dominate, the defense will be lockdown and Gould will have plenty of opportunities in the kicking game.

For Green Bay, I would roll Davante Adams because he dominates the Packers’ market share (36.5% via the NFL Study Hub.) He will be the focal point of the Green Bay offense and they would have to pass the ball in this game script.

FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups

For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.

Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Packers will go pass-heavy and Rodgers will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.

See ya in discord,
TMay

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