Welcome to the NFL Week 9 optimal lineup pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel! I’m going to go over the optimal lineups using the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub projections, 4 man game stack, and potential pivots that have tournament winning upside. Let’s get into it!
The optimal elected to go with a Broncos stack with Julio Jones as the opponent running it back. This is the top value stack in the NFL Top Stacks tool. Per the NFL Study Hub, Atlanta is giving up 25 points per game to opposing quarterbacks and 12 points per game to opposing receivers. I’ll be attacking this spot.
Tyler Lockett: Per the NFL Study Hub, Lockett has a 26% market share and projects as WR3 on the slate. $6,800 is too low of a price to pass up on in a game that has a 54 point implied total. I will have Lockett at volume on Sunday.
Dalvin Cook: Detroit is giving up 27 points per game to opposing running backs and Cook projects as RB1 on the slate. I’ll attack the Detroit run defense with an elite running back.
David Johnson: I’m on the fence here. Jacksonville is giving up 22 points per game to opposing running backs (NFL Study Hub) but, Johnson has yet to eclipse 20 DraftKings points this season. For me, he’s a better MME target than a single entry target.
James Robinson: Robinson is facing a Texans defense that allows 27 points per game to opposing running backs (NFL Study Hub) and should see an increased workload with Jake Luton making his first career start. $7,000 is a great price for Robinson.
Chiefs Stack: Patrick Mahomes with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and running it back with Robby Anderson ranks second in NFL Top Stacks under 4 man game stacks by projection. Kansas City has a 31.25 implied total and Carolina will have to air it out if the Chiefs jump out to a large lead. I’ll have exposure to this stack.
D’Andre Swift: If you roll an expensive stack, you’ll need to spend down at running back. Swift projects for 14-15 touches and we’ve seen him hit a 30 point ceiling just a few weeks ago. This will be a volatile play but, it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
The optimal elected to go with a Bills stack with Tyler Lockett as the run back from Seattle. Seattle is allowing a staggering 36 points per game to opposing wide receivers. I’ll attack Seattle with Buffalo receivers this week. I mentioned stats from the NFL Study Hub earlier that support Lockett as a great play and $7,400 is reasonable price point.
Dalvin Cook: He’s popping on both sites and for good reason. I referenced stats earlier in the article. He’s a stud and I’ll gladly pay up for Cook.
Chase Edmonds: Here’s where it gets interesting. Edmonds projects to get 15 touches against a Miami defense that allows 20 points per game to opposing running back per NFL Study Hub. If you think, Kyler Murray gets more goal line work with Kenyan Drake out, I’d pivot. We’ve seen Edmonds produce very well with limited touches this season. More of a MME target than a single entry target for me.
Seattle Stack: Sticking with the same game but, pivoting to the opposite team. We know that Lockett and Metcalf will get the bulk of the targets for Seattle and Diggs is the only Bills receiver with a market share over 20% coming in at 34%. I’d favor running Wilson with Lockett, Metcalf and running it back with Diggs than the Buffalo stack in the optimal.
Justin Jackson: He’s $5,900 and we’ve seen him get 15 and 17 touches in the last three weeks. Las Vegas allows 22 points per game to opposing running backs. He should smash value if he gets the bulk of the touches. This will be a volatile play.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson comes in at just $100 more than Edmonds and has shown a 35 point ceiling. Minnesota has a 28 point implied total and Jefferson has a 23% market share. I’m not against playing Jefferson and Cook together. Odds are that Cook won’t score all of the touchdowns for Minnesota.
See ya in discord,