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Monday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 11-9

Let’s dive into my Monday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!

New England Patriots @ New York Jets O/U 41.5 NE -9

Scenario 1: Game Stays Close

In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. Given the lack of production from both quarterbacks and a low total, this is a likely scenario.

For the New England side, I’m focusing on Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd, James White, and Damien Harris. Since coming back from the COVID-19 Injured Reserve, Cam Newton has struggled which has caused New England to lean on the run game but, they’re facing the Jets. Every team looks good against the Jets. Damien Harris and Jakobi Meyers should see the largest volume of market share. According to the NFL Study Hub Range of Outcomes, Cam Newton has the highest ceiling on the slate. I would lock him into all single entry, 3 max, and cash lineups.

For a shootout, I would have more shares of the wide receivers than running backs.

For the New York side, I’m focusing on Joe FlaccoBraxton BerriosJamison CrowderBreshad Perriman, Denzel MimsFrank Gore, and La’Mical Perine. Crowder could be inactive for this one. He is a priority if he is in and Mims will be the beneficiary if he is out. I would not play Perine and Gore together.

For a shootout, add Chris Herndon to your pool. If he does well, he will most likely get a touchdown with limited targets.

If you are predicting a low scoring day, I would roster the defense of the team you think wins and kickers are more in play than other scenarios.

If you are predicting a shootout, I would roster the kicker of the team you predict to win.

Scenario 2: Patriots Dominate

According to the NFL Study Hub, the Jets give up 282 passing yards per game. If Cam Newton is able to be more accurate with his passes, we could see Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd having really good days and possibly a ceiling game. If you’re predicting an aerial assault, a stack of Cam NewtonJakobi Meyers, ad Dameire Byrd makes sense. If I were to pick a New England running back, I would prefer James White due to pricing ($6,200 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel.)

News to Watch: Sony Michel could get activated from Injured Reserve. I would expect him to get goal line and short yardage work if he is back. This would cut into the carries Damien Harris has been getting.

For the Jets’ side, I would roster one of La’Mical Perine or Frank Gore. New England is giving up 140 rushing yards per game (NFL Study Hub) and I would expect the Jets to lean on the running game with Joe Flacco at the helm.

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Scenario 3: Jets Dominate

This is the least likely scenario but, it’s still possible. I would have exposure here in MME only. As I referenced before, New England is giving up 140 rushing yards per game. If the Jets dominate, Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine will be running all over New England.

Going into even more unlikely and volatile scenarios, Joe Flacco has to be a priority target in this scenario. My priority stack would be Joe Flacco with Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman. If Crowder is inactive, Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims are in play. Chris Herndon would be a dart throw that I’d have in 5/150 lineups in MME.

For the New England side, I’d prioritize Cam Newton because he has the highest ceiling in this game according to the NFL Stdy Hub Range of Outcomes.

FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups

For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.

Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Jakobi Meyers with Cam Newton and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Patriots will go pass-heavy and Newton will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.

See ya in discord,
TMay

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