Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
We FINALLY get a great primetime game! In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. A defensive battle is unlikely with an implied total of 57 but, it is a scenario that we need to cover in 150 max contests.
For the Arizona side, I’m focusing on Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Kenyan Drake, and Chase Edmonds. Murray and Hopkins is an obvious pairing and should be where you start if you are predicting an Arizona win. I’ll be focusing on wide receivers over running backs due to the timeshare between Edmonds/Drake and Seattle is giving up the most points per game to opposing wide receivers per the NFL Study Hub. If you do roster Drake or Edmonds, I would limit one of them per lineup.
For a shootout, I’m adding Andy Isabella to my pool. This is more of a MME play because he is touchdown-dependent. He is clearly the 4th wide receiver but he’s cheap on both sites.
For the Seattle side, I’m focusing on Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, David Moore, and Greg Olsen. News is going to play a big factor for Seattle. Carson and Lockett have both been limited in practice but, both look to be on track to play in this pivotal division matchup. Assuming everyone is healthy, I would expect Carson, Lockett, and Metcalf to get the bulk of the volume per usual. According to the NFL Study Hub, Arizona gives up 26 points per game to opposing wide receivers. This leads me to favor Metcalf and Lockett but, they’re expensive as they should be. Moore is going to be touchdown dependent but, he fits well into a 3 man stack with Wilson and one of Metcalf/Lockett.
If Lockett is out: I will give David Moore a bump in projections and add Freddie Swain to my pool. Swain would slide into the slot if Lockett is out.
If Carson is out: Deejay Dallas and Alex Collins would take the running back touches. It is worth noting that Collins tallied 11 carries last game and Dallas only had 2. I would anticipate Collins getting the lead running back role but, both are cheap on DraftKings.
As always, lock in the kicker of the team you predict wins the game and fade both defenses for a shootout.
If Arizona dominates, it is likely that Kyler Murray has a ceiling game. Arizona has scored 30 or more points since Week 5 and Murray has eclipsed at least 28 points on DraftKings and 27 on FanDuel in each game. He carries this offense in the air and on the ground. Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins are the obvious pairings for Murray but, they are pricy. If you roster a running back, you’ll have to capitalize on touchdown variance because neither Edmonds nor Drake will get enough volume to rack up 100 yards.
If you want to roster an expensive Seattle option, Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella offer salary relief.
My preferred Seattle runback would be either D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. We know they’ll get plenty of targets and Seattle would be playing from behind in this scenario.
I would lock in Zane Gonzalez for this scenario. He will have plenty of kicking opportunities if Arizona dominates Seattle.
If Seattle dominates this game, Russell Wilson will have a ceiling game. Seattle passes the ball 62% of their plays, per the NFL Study Hub, and their rushing attack could be limited if Carson is out. Obviously, Lockett and Metcalf are the preferred stacking targets for Wilson. The problem with that is they are very expensive to roster. You could either mitigate that by rostering David Moore with one of Lockett/Metcalf or roster a punt in your lineup. I would prefer rostering Moore because Lockett and Metcalf rarely hit their ceilings in the same game. Again, I prefer Alex Collins over Deejay Dallas if Chris Carson is out.
For the Arizona side, I prefer Kyler Murray if you pay up or Larry Fitzgerald if you pay down.
I would lock in Jason Myers for this scenario. He will have plenty of kicking opportunities if Seattle dominates Arizona.
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.
Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Tyler Lockett with Russell Wilson and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Seahawks will go pass-heavy and Wilson will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
See ya in discord,