Welcome to the NFL Week 9 optimal lineup pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel! I’m going to go over the optimal lineups using the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub projections, 4 man game stack, and potential pivots that have tournament winning upside.
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Let’s get into it!
Note: DraftKings requires two players to be locked to produce an optimal lineup. In this case, those players were our top-ranked stack of Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen.
The optimal elected to go with a Chargers/Jets game stack. This stack makes a lot of sense. The Chargers have an implied total of 27.5 and the Jets defense has been brutal. I expect Herbert to have a great day but, this may not be my preferred stack.
Dalvin Cook– Dalvin Cook against Dallas is about as good as it gets. Cook has gotten 30 carries in two out of his last 3 games. That is absurd volume and he’s going against a Dallas defense that allows 27 points per game per the NFL Study Hub. Cook is the safest play at running back this week.
Duke Johnson– This is a good bounce-back spot for Jonson. New England allows 167 rushing yards per game and Johnson should see the majority of the work at running back. There are potential pivots but, I like the play.
Justin Jefferson– As I mentioned earlier, Dallas allows 27 points per game. Along with that, they are allowing 30 points per game to opposing wide receivers and Jefferson has a 27% market share according to the NFL Study Hub. There will be plenty of touchdown opportunities to go around for Minnesota.
Chargers Stack– I’ll keep the Chargers stack but, I’d pivot to the top projected stack in the NFL Top DK Stacks tool; Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and a Jamison Crowder run back. This allows you to get exposure to the Chargers offense but, you get exposure to three receivers that should get targets at volume.
J.D. McKissic– In about two games with Alex Smith at the helm, McKissic has racked up 29 targets. I don’t expect that insanely high volume to continue but, he should smash value if he gets 7 or 8 targets. Cincinnati gives up 265 passing yards per game, per NFL Study Hub, and Alex Smith has proven that he will prioritize McKissic.
Diontae Johnson– According to the NFL Study Hub, Johnson has a 22% target share and Pittsburgh has an implied total of 28. Ben Roethlisberger has attempted over 40 passes in three out of his last four games which should give Johnson plenty of opportunities to hit value.
The optimal elected to go with a Houston/New England stack. This stack comes in as the top value stack in the NFL Top FD Stacks tool. Cooks and Fuller have market shares of 27% and 19% according to the NFL Study Hub. Jakobi Myers is my priority run back due to his 38% market share.
Taysom Hill– Really the most obvious play on the slate. He’s starting at quarterback and is tight end eligible. Hill is TE1 by a margin of 4 points in the NFL Study Hub projections. Don’t overthink this one. Lock in Taysom Hill.
Dalvin Cook– As on DraftKings, Cook is the safest play at running back this week. He should get as many touches as he can handle and Dallas gives up 27 points per game.
Adrian Peterson– Peterson looks like a great play with D’Andre Swift inactive. Carolina gives up 22 points per game to opposing running backs and Peterson should see the majority of the carries in this spot. If he finds the end zone, Peterson will smash value.
Justin Jefferson– I already touched on how good of a matchup Jefferson has against Dallas. In the NFL Study Hub projections, Jefferson ranks as the top value at wide receiver and WR5 overall.
Terry McLaurin– McLaurin comes in as WR4 in the NFL Study Hub projections and Cincinnati gives up 27 points per game to opposing wide receivers. The fewest amount of targets McLaurin has seen this season is 7. I’m expecting a big day from him on Sunday.
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