Post Hype Sleepers. I looked up the term on Google Trends and it is not very popular. It is ironic because the players we will talk about today are not popular at all according to their ADPs. The “post hype” portion of the phrase that is thrown around in Fantasy Football simply applies to the perception of the player the year following said hype. We are excited about potential in a player and it is not realized.
Today we are going to try to sift through the fog of recency bias and forget the “what have you done for me lately” mentality. These 2021 Fantasy Football Sleepers offer value that can help you win your leagues.
2020 ADP: 2.10 (WR6)
2021 ADP: 4.10 (WR17)
In 2019 Chris Godwin, with “Guns Blazin'” Jameis Winston at the helm, was the WR2 overall in Fantasy Football. His 16.5 Fantasy points per game were also second.
Last season never really built momentum for Godwin until the NFL playoffs because of multiple injuries. A concussion early on in the season, followed by a hamstring strain, and then finally a broken finger made for a rough season for Godwin Fantasy managers to say the least and that has been the sole proprietor of Godwin’s decline in ADP.
What we should be looking at is Godwin’s 13.2 FPPG in 2021 as he was dealing with nagging injuries and trying to develop chemistry with Tom Brady. Godwin averaged seven targets per game on the season and this did not change with the addition of Antonio Brown. In games he played with Brown (seven) he scored five of his seven touchdowns on the year.
Godwin is a sneaky candidate in 2021 to score 10 touchdowns. Tampa Bay was third in red zone trips per game (four) and first in that category on the road (4.4). This offense likes to pass all over the field, including when they get inside the 20 yard line. The beauty of this for Chris Godwin is in the 12 games he appeared in (some of which were at limited capacity) he saw nine red zone targets, catching eight of them for six of his seven touchdowns on the season. The touchdown upside Godwin possess makes his ADP very tasty and makes him my favorite 2021 fantasy football post hype sleeper.
2020 ADP: 5.12 (WR26)
2021 ADP: 10.08 (WR46)
In his sophomore season, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown improved upon every major statistic. He was targeted more, he caught more passes, had more years, and scored more. So why has Brown dropped significantly in ADP?
One reception for three yards.Two for 14. 0 for 0. These were outcomes for Brown in entire games. It ended up being a tail of two seasons as Hollywood had six touchdowns in his final six games. He also put together two really good playoff games, ensuring the chemistry and trust that Lamar Jackson has with his third year wideout.
The Ravens drafting Rashod Bateman in the first round has many Fantasy Football players scratching their heads. There are only so many pass attempts to go around in Baltimore as they were dead last in pass attempts her game (25). Just as their AFC North counter part Pittsburgh Steelers have made the offseason moves that would suggest they want to run more (29th in rushing attempts per game in 2020) by drafting Najee Harris in the first round, the Ravens offseason moves point to more pass attempts for Baltimore this year.
Along with drafting Bateman, the Ravens added Sammy Watkins to go along with elite pass catching tight end Mark Andrews, and Brown. Despite conventional thinking, this is a good thing for Brown, especially considering his WR46 draft price. I expect Brown to improve again in his third year while the Ravens increase their pass attempts per game. Jackson should have a great year again while being a threat on the ground, but I think his passing ability and increased passing volume will surprise, making Hollywood a sneaky 2021 Fantasy Football post hype sleeper.
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2020 ADP: 2.02 (RB12)
2021 ADP: 3.10 (RB21)
In only 12 games Sanders had more rushing yards than he did in his rookie season when he played 16. Sanders strained his hamstring before the start of 2020 and it really derailed a lot of the ceiling that could have been for Sanders in his first year going in as the clear starter. Carson Wentz being truly bad only limited Sanders 2020 season even further.
Although Jordan Howard still lingers, and Kerryon Johnson is on the roster (for now), Sanders should still be in store for at least 250 touches in 2021. What I really like about Sanders 2021 outlook is what we saw from him WITH Jalen Hurts. In the three games with the rookie quarterback, Sanders saw at least 14 carries and had 13 total targets (at least five in two games).
Perceived volume combined with talent makes the RB21 feel like Sanders’ absolute floor. He often finds himself being drafted in the fourth round (I have seen the fifth round!) which makes him an obvious 2021 Fantasy Football post hype sleeper.
2020 ADP: 8.12 (TE10)
2021 ADP: 12.05 (TE15)
Tyler Higbee had an incredible ending to his 2019 campaign that had folks dubbing him the next Travis Kelce. Because of this, his ADP got to an uncomfortable spot, especially considering Gerald Everett was still there.
My worst fears for Higbee truthers came to fruition as Everett saw identical number of targets, and was not too far behind Higbee in terms of production. Although Higbee did have a three touchdown game, The Rams lackluster offense combined with Everett capping his upside, left a lot to be desired for Higbee managers.
In comes Matthew Stafford, who just provided T.J. Hockenson with the TE5 season. With Everett now gone, and Everett playing for the Seahawks, Higbee possess clear upside and is being drafted as the TE15. This is one of those situations where Higbee was adored by many, proceeded to let those people down, and is now considered an afterthought.
With the recent news of the Cam Akers injury, Stafford and the Rams will be looking to get Higbee even more involved, especially in the red zone where he has seen success. If you miss out on Travis Kelce early on in drafts and decide to punt the position, Tyler Higbee has a lot of upside and comes with no risk in the 12th round making him a post hype sleeper for 2021 Fantasy Football.
Note: ADP According to Fantasy Football Calculator