Week 4 DFS Risers & Fallers
Week 4 DFS Risers & Fallers
Welcome to Week 4 DFS! It’s spooky season now that October is officially here! There have been many strange things that have taken place through the first three weeks, so let’s try and sift through the plays so your weekend isn’t too scary.
As we dive into some of the Risers and fallers for Week 4 DFS, it is important to remember to be consistent in your lineup building but to also play the contrarian. The “fallers” in this piece should not be zero percent rostered, but there are reasons for concern. These pieces will have lower exposure rate because of a poor matchup, a bad recent game, or a bad beat.
Now, let’s get into the players that should be in your lineups for Week 4 DFS. Happy Friday!
Week 4 DFS Risers
D’Andre Swift @ Bears
D’Andre Swift has been great through three weeks in terms of receiving opportunities. He has seen at least five targets in each game while splitting running back duties with Jamaal Williams.
Head Coach Dan Campbell has come out and vocally stated that Swift is going to get more touches. Whether that is true or not remains to be determined, but regardless Swift’s current volume in the passing games gives him a solid foundation.
The Bears were just exposed through the air to the running back position last week versus Kareem Hunt and the Browns. Chicago gave up eight receptions for 87 yards to running backs last week and have allowed 18 fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
With the floor Swift gives you combined with his slate-breaking upside, he is mispriced for Week 4 DFS.
Michael Pittman Jr. @ Dolphins
Michael Pittman Jr. is being priced as if he hasn’t been targeted 12 times in each of the last two weeks. In fact, after his breakout game (eight receptions for 123 yards) he was only $5,500 on DraftKings. He followed that performance up with a respectable sic for 68 (again still 12 targets), but now you can get him $100 cheaper.
The Dolphins have allowed 23 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, including at least one touchdown per game. Pittman Jr. While Xavien Howard can present trouble, Pittman Jr. should be able to see enough volume to provide a safe floor. Pittman has four red-zone targets through three games, which adds to his touchdowns potential for Week 4 DFS.
Pittman Jr.’s 25.2 percent target share is 12th in the NFL through three weeks. The sophomore breakout is upon us and we should see his price increase steadily in DFS throughout the season. Take advantage of the discount on Michael Pittman Jr. for Week 4 DFS.
Zach Moss Vs. Texans
After being inactive in Week 1, things looked grim for third-year running back Zach Moss. It seems that must have been injury-related, as Moss just logged 56 percent of offensive snaps last week. He was able to put together a 16 touch performance resulting in 91 total yards and a touchdown.
The Bills offense is such a powerhouse that all skill players are viable on a weekly basis, especially if they continue to run the ball well. Since Buffalo only runs the ball on 40 percent of their offensive snaps – efficiency is important for Moss’s success. He is averaging over four yards a carry and has two rushing touchdowns. Moss has also added a score through the air.
This matchup against Houston is likely to be a positive game script, so we can expect double-digit carries for Moss. The Texans are allowing over 100 yards per game on the ground and have given up three scores. Moss presents a cheap option that allows you to spend up at other positions for Week 4 DFS
Week 4 DFS Fallers
Marquise Brown @ Broncos
It was a tough week for Marquise Brown against the Lions. He dropped three passes, one of which should have been a score. Things are not going to get any easier this week, as he will be facing the Broncos who are allowing the third-least passing yards per game (162.3).
Brown can be viewed as a sneaky play, as his exposure rate is bound to be lower with the bad matchup (and the poor performance in Week 3). I would not fade him completely, as he is one of those players that only need one play to make it a good week.
Rashod Bateman could make his debut this week. If he does, this would be reason to further temper expectations this week. The first-round draft pick will surely cut into Brown’s 7.6 targets per game. In the event that Bateman does play, he could be one of the sneakiest min-priced players for Week 4 DFS.
Daniel Jones @ Saints
Jones started the season hot, thanks in part two a rushing touchdown in each of the first two weeks. He failed to reach paydirt last week, which resulted in a mediocre output for fantasy.
He steps into this matchup with a banged-up wide receiver corps as Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard have not practiced as of Thursday, making their status for Sunday bleak. Unfortunately for Jones, he plays the Saints who have generated seven turnovers on the season (tied for second).
The Saints are only allowing 243 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game, which is not going to get it done for Wek 4 DFS. If Jones has a big day on the ground, he could salvage a mediocre passing performance, but his upside will be capped regardless if he can’t exceed 250 yards passing.