NFL DFS Stacks for Week 4
Welcome to the weekly DFS game stacking strategy article. At this point, most DFS regulars understand the concept of stacking, that is rostering multiple players from the same team on your DFS roster. The idea is to take advantage of positive correlation to maximize your potential ceiling. While this has become more commonplace, using point spreads and projected point totals to stack entire games is less prevalent. That’s what this article will focus on each week.
When game stacking, it’s important to look at the outcomes you expect and tell yourself a story about how it gets there. For each game I’m looking to stack below, I’ll include the point spread, the projected over/under point total, and the implied narrative that gets the game to that outcome. From there, I’ll explore the stacking options that would provide the biggest DFS boost if the narratives come to fruition. Let’s dive in!
Chiefs (-6.5) at Eagles
Narrative: Eagles keep pace
The Andy Reid Bowl is shaping up to be the game of the week, and it’s littered with stacking options. The Kansas City trio of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce is as tempting as it is expensive. The three-player combination is more economical on FanDuel than DraftKings this week, so if you want to fit all of them, that’s the place to do it.
Kelce and Hill have essentially the same salary, and if I’m choosing between them, I’d go with Hill, who I highlighted in my Week 4 Yahoo DFS picks article. Over his career, he’s been oddly better when he’s away from Arrowhead Stadium. He’s racked up over 500 more receiving yards and eight more receiving touchdowns in one fewer game on the road than at home.
There are also plenty of run-back options on the Eagles. Devonta Smith, who leads the Philadelphia in both targets and air yards, is probably the best option. Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins both have the big-play ability to pay off their salaries in a single play. Miles Sanders is perfectly viable as well and should come in at a low roster percentage.
You could also start a stack with Jalen Hurts, whose ceiling is just as high as Mahomes thanks to his potential to pile up fantasy points on the ground. Add your choice of Philly receiver with him and run it back with Hill, Kelce, or even Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
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Cardinals at Rams (-4)
Narrative: Back and forth shootout
This NFC West battle is tied for the highest expected point total of the week, so it’s another one we want to attack.
As the quarterback for the favored home team, let’s start with Matthew Stafford. Of course, it would be great to pair him with red hot Cooper Kupp, but it’s going to be an expensive and popular stack. I prefer leveraging the field by stacking Stafford with Robert Woods and hope he breaks out of his early-season slump. Adding Tyler Higbee to the mix is perfect if you believe the Rams end up airing it out.
There aren’t any obvious run-back options for the Cardinals, but if this game hits its expected point total, you’ll want a piece from the Cardinals too. Any of the Arizona wideouts could score, but Christian Kirk and his combination of target share and air yards is my favorite of the bunch. Neither Chase Edmonds nor James Conner makes appealing run-back options.
Stacking this game with Kyler Murray is a little trickier. He has a higher ceiling, given his potential to score on the ground, but the key is to select the right stacking options. I prefer going with DeAndre Hopkins, as he’s the only Cardinal capable of truly dominating a game. A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, or the previously mentioned Kirk should be sprinkled in as well. On the other side, the Rams could get it going on the ground with Darrell Henderson again this week, so he makes a great run-back option for this stack.
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Panthers at Cowboys (-4)
Narrative: Back and forth shootout
Starting this game stack with Dak Prescott may seem like the obvious choice, but I prefer to start it with Sam Darnold. This game might shoot out, and we haven’t seen the Panthers need to keep up with anybody yet. If Darnold has to air it out, you’ll want to start your stack with alpha wideout D.J. Moore, then add in your favorite between Robby Anderson or Terrace Marshall. If you’re feeling bold, you can take a shot on the rookie tight end, Tommy Tremble, now that Dan Arnold was traded away. Whatever combination of Darnold and Panther pass-catchers you choose to roll with, I’d recommend running it back with Ezekiel Elliot.
Of course, I won’t talk you out of a Dak stack if you think the game turns into a true shootout. The possibilities are almost endless for pairing with Dak. At least one of CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper needs to be included, and it isn’t crazy to go with the full triple stack. For less popular options, you can take a shot on Cedric Wilson, Dalton Schultz, or even a super deep dart throw with Blake Jarwin. D.J. Moore is the best run-back option in this scenario, though fill-in running back Chuba Hubbard makes a lot of sense too.
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Football Team (-1.5) at Falcons
Narrative: Bad defenses lead to more points than expected
This game doesn’t have one of the highest expected point totals on the week, but it does have two of the worst defenses in the league. They’ve allowed the third and fourth-most points respectively through three games. You can attack this game from either side.
Let’s start with Matt Ryan, who has been awfully bad so far. He currently has career lows in touchdown percent and quarterback rating. He may not rebound to MVP level numbers, but he’s due for at least some positive regression, and a Washington defense that’s given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks could be just the salve he needs. You can stack him with Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, or both. I wouldn’t, however, go any deeper on the Atlanta roster. Antonio Gibson is the obvious run-back option here.
On the other side of the coin, Taylor Heinicke has been surprisingly good for fantasy since stepping into the starting role. If you take the shot with him, Terry McLaurin becomes a must-stack receiver, while Logan Thomas, Dyami Brown, or the recently activated Curtis Samuel make intriguing add-ins. I wouldn’t bother bringing it back with a running back for Atlanta. Rather, I’d run it back with Calvin Ridley in hopes of a breakout performance from the All-Pro receiver.
Hit me up on Twitter @aalarson to talk DFS and stacking this week!
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