DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC London
DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC London
Monk here with another UFC DFS breakdown for TeamRiseorFall.com. UFC London, happening March 19, 2022, is one of the better cards we’ve seen so far this year from top to bottom. Headlined by Alexander Volkov and local heavyweight Tom Aspinall, it promises to be a banger. The co-main event is Arnold Allen, undefeated in the UFC, going up against the ever-exciting Dan Hooker. We also get Jack Shore, Molly McCann, Ilia Topuria, and the return of Gunnar Nelson, so you cannot miss this card! It is taking place in London, so if you are watching in North America be sure you get your lineups in early because the card starts in the late morning/early afternoon.
I’m going to give you three value plays & a fade this week, with a bit of what I call salary voodoo thrown in.
Play number one this week is going to be Gunnar Nelson. Nelson hasn’t fought in about 2 and a half years, but I believe his game matches up perfectly against Takashi Sato, who also hasn’t fought in over a calendar year. Nelson does not score well, averaging only 2.09 raw DraftKings points per minute, but Sato has allowed almost three points per minute in his four UFC fights. The $9200 salary has a win rate of 72.50% since 1/1/2021 and makes the optimal lineup in 34.48% of those wins.
Takashi Sato has not fought for over 470 days, so I see this as the perfect comeback fight for Nelson. Sato gives up 89.30 DraftKings points per loss, but I don’t think this one sees the scorecards. Gunnar has finished 12 fights by way of submission and Takashi has been subbed in two of his four UFC fights.
I see Nelson getting a takedown or two and having his way with Sato on the ground, eventually securing an early rear-naked choke for a submission victory.
Play number two is going to be another high-salary guy in Ilia Topuria. Even at $9300, I am finding it difficult to pass on the high-scoring upside of Topuria against Jai Herbert. Ilia is an undefeated fighter going into the lion’s den for this one, but I’m not too worried about him. Topuria is extremely well-rounded with a fantastic ground and submission game, not to mention the power he holds in his hands can be devastating. Ilia averages 3.58 points per minute while scoring in every single category.
Jai Herbert is coming off a KO/TKO win over Khama Worthy, but he has shown susceptibility to be taken down in his young UFC career. Herbert allows 1.47 points per minute in takedowns alone, not to mention the 0.82 control time points per minute he gives up as well. If Topuria can land even one takedown in the first round of this fight, Jai is in for an extremely long evening.
I believe Ilia Topuria is better in every aspect of MMA (except his cardio which he has hopefully been working on) and will be able to find an early finish against Herbert, most likely by way of submission.
The third fighter I will give you this week will be Paul “Bearjew” Craig. Having two first names may not be enough to get the job done against Nikita Krylov, so it’s a good thing Paul knows a thing or two about jiujitsu. Averaging 2.80 points per minute and 95.16 DraftKings points per victory, Craig is a fighter that I expect will be able to neutralize Krylov’s ground attack, while constantly looking to improve his position. 97.62% of these two fighters’ wins have finished inside the distance, so I highly doubt this one will need the judges.
Krylov puts on a tremendous pace but allows 3.45 points per minute and has given up over 90 DraftKings points in four of his six UFC losses. Craig will need to keep his head on a swivel and not leave his chin up, or Nikita could certainly take advantage with his power. Paul is the fighter with the much better ground game and especially submission game, so I’m hoping he will find an opportunity to lock something up on Krylov, who has been submitted in 3 of his six UFC losses.
Pulling for Craig here will likely be a nail-biting proposition, but again, I like his ground and submission game a lot against a fighter that allows 1.55 points per minute from takedowns and control time, and another 0.25 points against in reversals. Gimme the upside of Paul Craig at $7500 all day.
The Monkmatician’s fade of the week was a tough one to pick, but Arnold Allen, come on down! While I will be glued to my television for Allen x Hooker, I will have zero percent of Arnold Allen in my lineups this week. Scoring only 2.26 points per minute and an incredibly low 66.09 DraftKings points per win, Allen is someone I expect to win on Saturday while putting up a mediocre point total. Allen has yet to score over 90 points, which is an anomaly as far as having eight UFC fights under his belt.
Dan Hooker is dropping down to 145 for this fight, and I expect the defense of Allen to stifle a bit of The Hangman’s offensive output that we are used to seeing. Hooker does tend to give up a fair number of points when he loses, but the toughness from Dan and the low-volume output of Arnold makes Allen almost impossible to roster in his home country.
I see this fight being very exciting, but also going to decision with the winner scoring around 75-85 DraftKings points.
There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.
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Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.
-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks