AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS Course Preview for DraftKings & FanDuel 2021
We’re back in California! I’m excited to present to you the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS Course Preview for DraftKings & FanDuel 2021. This year at Pebble Beach, there will not be a pro-am portion, but we will still have a stacked field of 156 players with Dustin Johnson’s return and the PGA debut of Kamaiu Johnson.
Course Preview
California swing part 2 begins! We’re back for another event with split courses! Usually, this event is played with three courses, but they eliminated the Monterey Peninsula course this year. So there will be one round at Pebble Beach and one round at Spyglass Hill.
Pebble Beach is a par 72, 7050 yards played on Poa Annua. One of the easiest holes on the course is the 6th hole. The 6th hole gives up a significant chance for eagle opportunities, and it has a 44% birdie rate. The 4th hole is the 2nd easiest hole on the course, coughing up 28% in birdies. Lastly is the famous 18th hole that has a 26% birdie rate. However, this course is not a cakewalk. Holes 2, 8, 9, 10, and 17 have a bogey 25-38% rate.
Spyglass Hil is a par 72, 7040 yards played on Poa Annua. This course is the easiest of the two, so I’ll be eyeing a ton of players here for my showdowns (sadly, we won’t have any shotlink data). The back 9 is where you want to be. Holes 11, 14, 15, 17, and 18 have a birdie rate of 25-45%, with a small chance of an eagle.
According to the GCSAA, the fairways at Pebble average 45 yards in width, and since last year, native grasses have been introduced on holes 2, 4, 11 & 15, so there’s another kind of hazard the players will need to navigate. The greens at Pebble are small (3500 sq feet) and slow. While on contrast, the fairways and greens are much wider and larger at Spyglass Hill, and it’s more of a bomber’s course. Anyway, let’s get to the picks!
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: T2G
- Strokes Gained: Putting (poa)
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Cash Play
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- Dustin Johnson ($12,000) – There should be no reason as to why you don’t play DJ unless, of course, you’re playing a GPP. Over on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – In the last 12 events he’s played, he’s won five times! and finished runner up three times. Now he comes to a familiar course where he’s finished 2nd and 3rd, followed by his favorite surface; DJ gains 0.3 putting strokes on Poa Annua greens. In the last 10 events, DJ has gained 7.1 strokes T2G, 4.1 on APP, 1.9 OTT, 1.7 Putting, and 1.1 ARG.
- Daniel Berger ($10,100) – Berger crushed many dreams last week with his miss cut at Waste Management (including mine). But I took a deep dive and noticed that he lost 1.9 total strokes in the 2nd round, making the 5th highest lost total strokes he’s had in the last 3 years. More recently, the last time he lost that many strokes was at the Tour Championship in September. Berger has only played here twice but placed 5th last year. Lastly, he gains 0.31 putting strokes on Poa, and in the last 5 events, he’s gained 2 strokes Putting, 1.8 T2G, 1.5 OTT, and 1 stroke on APP.
GPP Play
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- Will Zalatoris ($9,900) – Last week, Will finished 17th at Waste Management, and I’m glad I played him in my OAD, but now I almost wish I played him this week. Two weeks ago, he placed 7th at Farmers, but his stats were much better at Waste Management. If we look at the Rise or Fall Study Hub – last week, he gained 6.1 strokes T2G and 4.6 on APP. But over at Farmers, he gained 5.3 strokes T2G and 2.3 on APP. The kid is just getting better and better. Heading to Pebble Beach, he’s leading the field in T2G (1.79) and on APP (1.09). And yea, leading the field. So, he’s even playing better than DJ (small sample size)
- Brendan Steele ($8,400) – I mentioned Brendan a few weeks ago for the American Express, and he’s still playing remarkably. He managed to have a 30th place finish last week even after losing 5 strokes putting. But still gained 8.4 strokes T2G, 5 strokes OTT, and 2.7 ARG. The plus side is that he actually gains strokes on Poa compared to all other surfaces where he loses strokes on the putter. Did I also mention he’s a terrific Ball Striker? He’s ranked 10th on the PGA Tour.
Dark Horse Play
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- Chez Reavie ($7500) – Chez is actually one of those guys who excel in small greens (WGC, Memorial, Travelers, Workday, etc.). At WGC St. Jude, he placed 6th (2020), 22nd at Memorial (2020), 46th at Travelers (2020), and 17th at Workday (2020). So he not only has great course history at Pebble Beach, he plays superbly when he’s facing smaller greens.
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