Some things never seem to change in the realm of fantasy football such as breakouts emerging, and players busting. The hardest part of the game is predicting whether a player is a bargain or bust.
At the quarterback position, the trend seems to be at least one player goes undrafted by consensus that finishes inside the top twelve at the position. Typically these players are either rookies or are players entering a make or break year. This year two veterans are entering a make or break year, and are intriguing options for teams drafting multiple late-round QB’s to fill their spot.
Goff finds himself changing teams this offseason after being traded from the Rams to the Lions. By all accounts, the Lions are entering a full rebuild and shouldn’t be too competitive this season. I believe they’ll ruin quite a few pickem leagues this season, but I don’t believe they’ll be in playoff contention.
Typically, this is where we will see a heavy amount of passing as they’ll be trailing most weeks. Also consider Campbells’ time in Miami, as a head coach he ran a 60-40 split in terms of passes to rushes, averaging almost 35 passes per game. This tells us Goff is going to be passing more than we expect this season.
Goff is relatively underrated in terms of passing, throwing for at least 3,800 yards and 20 touchdowns each of the last four seasons, and above 60% completion percentage. While Goff isn’t likely to finish among the top players at the position, he very well will give you weeks with upside finishes inside the top ten. However, not everything is what it seems with Goff.
The flip side of this argument comes down to costly turnovers. Goff has thrown at least 10 or more interceptions each of the last 3 seasons and has thrown a consistent 2.5% of interceptions per attempt. Extrapolated across the coming season that would be 15 interceptions. The only thing more alarming than the interceptions with Goff are his fumbles. Fumbling 10 or more times twice in three seasons, it’s more likely than not he will exceed that number again this season with increased volume.
While Goff is facing a high volume opportunity of passes this season, he seems more than likely to bust this season than be a value. All things considered, Goff was a turnover machine with high-end pass catchers in Los Angeles and is now supposed to fix his woes with a rookie pass-catcher as his best receiver. Goff is currently going undrafted, and that isn’t a problem I look to fix.
Carson Wentz enters the season injured by a fluke accident suffered in training camp. This has made an undesirable target almost un-draftable. The thing I often find myself asking is despite the injury, could you do much worse than Wentz as your QB2 in best ball?
Considering, Wentz was the favorite to win league MVP in 2017, he has shown us he has the talent to be a high-end fantasy producer. While the season didn’t go according to plan, interestingly, in 3 of the last four seasons Wentz has thrown 7 Interceptions and at least 21 touchdown passes.
What’s even more amazing is Wentz threw for over 4,000 yards without a single wide receiver accounting for over 500 yards in 2019. Interestingly, in two of those seasons, Wentz only had one season where he threw the ball over 450 times. In the previous three seasons, Wentz has thrown at or above the league average of touchdowns per attempt. When you factor his touchdown percentages into his below-average passing volume we may be poised for a breakout this season if we use Philip Rivers attempts as the plug.
Last season we saw Rivers throw the ball 543 times with virtually the same offense around him. If Wentz returns to pre-2020 form we could see Wentz throw for 31 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions (based on his previous three seasons).
Wentz is currently going in the back half of the 16th round in twelve-man Underdog drafts. If Wentz can recreate his magic from 2019 and 2018 I see no better value in the 0 QB strategy than Carson Wentz.