BMW Championship at Olympia Fields
This week we enter a trimmed field of 70 players! We’ll be at Olympia Fields, Illinois where we have our 2nd week of playoffs. This even is a no-cut event (think WGC) par 70, 7300 yards on bent greens & poa greens. The most recent events played here was the 2015 US Amateur which was won by Bryson DeChambeau (match play event) and before that was in 2003 for the US Open. I would also like to note that the course hosted the Illini Invitational over the years. In 2018 and 2017 Wolff won over Morikawa (twice) and in 2016 Cameron Champ won. Don’t forget this event was a college event, meaning they only played 3 rounds.
Fairways aren’t exactly super wide, but they aren’t tight either. There’s going to be plenty of trees and bunkers, so it’s important to keep an eye on approach, scrambling and sand saves. Some of the most difficult holes on this course are: hole 17 is a par 3 that is 247 yards with a 30% bogey chance, 12th hole par 4, 458 yards with a 34% bogey chance and the 5th hole that is also a par 4, measuring 440 yards with a 28% bogey chance. The easiest holes on the course are 1, 2, and 6 which have about a 20% to 36% chance of birdie opportunity.
Justin Thomas ($10800) – He had some trouble at Northern Trust with his putter. In round 3 alone he lost nearly 3 strokes in putting. But he still gained 4.5 strokes T2G and 1.9 on APP. JT is ranked 1st in my model (1st on APP & Ball Striking, 3rd in scrambling, 4th in BoB%, and 7th ARG) and in the last 5 events, he’s gained 8.6 strokes T2G, 5.2 strokes on APP, 1.9 ARG and 1.5 OTT.
Daniel Berger ($9700) – I talk Berger up literally every week and there’s no reason you shouldn’t play this elite player. Finished 3rd last week at the Northern Trust. He gained 6 strokes in putting, 5.5 T2G, 3.4 OTT, and 1.9 on APP. Berger is ranked 2nd in my model 2nd in scrambling, 5th BoB%, 6th P4: 450-500, and 9th in putting.
Patrick Cantlay ($8900) – What a discount to play Cantlay at this price. From 8k to 8.9k Cantlay returns value 8x! I know he screwed us last week with that missed cut, but that was only because he lost 3.5 strokes with his putter. In the last 5 events, Cantlay has gained 3 strokes T2G, 1.6 on APP, and 1.5 OTT. At this price, I’m sold.
Adam Scott ($8200) – Ball Striker? Check! Adam can strike the ball 307 yards AND an excellent chipper. Currently ranked 13th on the Tour – Around The Green. Noticed how I said he’s an excellent chipper – if we rewind to last week at The Northern Trust, he lost 1.5 strokes ARG. He hasn’t lost strokes ARG since St. Jude in 2019. Adam is currently ranked 7th in my overall model – ranked 4th on APP and 6th ARG.
Patrick Reed ($8800) – The king of no-cut events! Reed finished 49th last week, but the only round he actually had a problem was in round 2. He lost 1.3 strokes OTT and 1.8 strokes on APP. But on Saturday he scored a 68 and a 70 on Sunday. He had a good week, but nothing compared to the 64’s people were getting. This course is a different animal and it fits him. Reed is ranked 23rd in my overall model – ranked 3rd BoB%, 5th ARG, and 13th in putting.
Thanks for reading fam,