Bottom of the Barrel Week 10 NFL DFS Breakdown
Bottom of the Barrel Week 10
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie
Superstition is a wild thing! I think it goes hand in hand with my routine. When it comes to Bottom of the Barrel, I have followed the same timeline for years in terms of notes & research. On Tuesdays, the day I publish, I wear the same socks & use the same pen.
On the surface, it would seem a little obsessive-compulsive. I can assure you that it’s not. After all these years, for me, it’s a way to keep the confidence! It is also about repetition. Doing the same thing repeatedly can become mundane and we lose interest. Regardless of if it involves love or passion.
Confidence is key with anything that we do. Also, the drive and inspiration to complete tasks. So any fun silly activity we can do on the side is always a good move!
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Digging deep on a weekly basis has never been more important! I am not an archeologist, but in a way, my DFS content has become just as important!
Josh Allen BUF @ NYJ(14th)(FD-$8,700)(DK-$7,900)(Y!-$40)
Well, the Bills and Josh Allen basically laid an egg in Week 9. Allen completed 31 of 47 passes for 264 yards, zero touchdowns, and threw two interceptions. No harm. No foul. As Buffalo turns their attention to the Jets in what should be a blood bath. Mr. Allen remains atop the food chain in terms of fantasy footballs elite!
Week 10 is upon us and the NFL season has already been confusing, exhausting, and entertaining! Let’s look at some cheap QB’s that can get us over the hump!
Ryan Tannehill TEN v NO(11th)(FD-$7,400)(DK-$6,200)(Y!-$25)
Ryan Tannehill completed 19 of 27 passes for 143 yards and one touchdown in Week 9! While rushing for another touchdown! Folks always talk about football being a team game. It’s a team sport where the sum is greater than the parts. The Titan’s defense was playing out of their minds in Week 9. Pressuring Stafford and creating havoc. In turn, gave Tannehill and the offense a few extra possessions. Tennessee has come alive and they are currently on one heck of a run! Get while the getting’s good! Personally speaking, I have Tanny around 260 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 10.
Matt Ryan ATL @ DAL(26th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,000)(Y!-$25)
Matt Ryan completed 23-of-30 passes for 343 yards and two touchdowns while adding another touchdown on the ground Sunday against the Saints. Ryan has picked up the pace of his play and has settled into a nice run of production. Last week the Cowboys gave up 30 points to the Denver Broncos. You should be salivating at what the Falcons are about to do! I have Ryan around 295 passing yards and several touchdowns passes in this one!
Taysom Hill NO @ TEN(25th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$5,200)(Y!29)
Taysom was a non-factor in Week 9 but that’s fine with me. That kind of performance, or lack thereof, opens an edge window we can take advantage of in Week 10. Coach Sean Payton will have all hands on deck in Nashville on Sunday. Trevor Siemian might be the starting QB, for now, but Taysom Hill will have his hands all over this one on Sunday!
Teddy Bridgewater DEN v PHI(16th)(FD-$7,200)(DK-$5,500)(Y!-$21)
Teddy Bridgewater went 19-of-28 for 249 yards and one touchdown Sunday as they steamrolled the Cowboys. Teddy didn’t do much, but he didn’t have to. The Broncos had their way on the ground against Dallas. Looking ahead to the match-up in Week 10, the Eagles gave up 356 passing yards to Justin Herbert last Sunday. I see a floor of 250 passing yards and two touchdown passes for Bridgewater in this one. Bombs away!
Ben Roethlisberger PIT v DET(18th)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$22)
To be honest I can get a little wordy and drone on from time to time. Except for now with Ben’s blurb. The Steelers are hosting the Detroit Lions Sunday in Week 10 and it’s going to go down exactly how we think it’s going to. On Monday night Ben still had some juice left in that arm! Also, in all honesty, I don’t see a case where Roethlisberger’s ownership percentages get to a chalky point! Realistically, Ben should get to 280 passing yards and at least two passing touchdowns with ease.
Taylor Heinicke WSH v TB(22nd)(FD-$6,900)(DK-$5,400)(Y!-$23)
Plugging in Heinicke to our DFS lines on Sunday is basically playing with fire. He has not been good the last few games. He has thrown six interceptions over his last four games and continues to struggle for the Football Team. So why bother? Rostering Taylor in Week 10 is the absolute opposite of what we have learned to do. This game may get out of hand early on forcing Heinicke to push the ball and attempt 40+ passes. Also known as garbage time! I would be happy with 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. Which is a realistic expectation in Week 10.
Mike White NYJ v BUF(1st)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$24)
Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports the Jets are starting Mike White in Week 10 against the Bills. So, what does this mean for our DFS lines in Week 10? Admittedly a tough ask for Mr. White given the match-up with Buffalo but garbage time points stack up all the same! Realistically, we could see 250 yards with a pair of touchdown passes for Mike in Week 10.
Trevor Lawrence JAX @ IND(30th)(FD-$6,600)(DK-$5,300)(Y!-$25)
Let’s get this out of the way first. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence suffered a low-ankle sprain in Sunday’s Week 9 win over the Bills. All the tests and x-rays came back negative so him playing in Week 10 shouldn’t be an issue. However, last Thursday the Colts gave up 317 passing yards to the Jet’s third-string QB, Josh Johnson. I shudder to think what blue-chip prospect Trevor Lawrence will do on Sunday. I’m going to say 275 passing yards with ease including multiple touchdown passes.
P.J. Walker CAR @ ARZ(5th)(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$20)
With the breaking news, Carolina quarterback Sam Darnold has a fractured scapula the Panthers will turn to P.J. Walker for several weeks. Given the fast-paced match-up in Arizona, this opens up an angle for an outlandish contrarian play. Which is the foundation of Bottom of the Barrel! We all fully expect the Cardinals to dominate at home, but any QB who has Christian McCaffrey at his disposal warrants our attention!
As the season chugs along like a freight train there are more and more interesting ideas, coincidences, and wacky decisions to be made. Each week I mention the most expensive player at each position. It helps to put the B&B players in perspective. This week, we have a tie on Fanduel for the most expensive running back!
Jonathan Taylor IND v JAX(12th)(FD-$9,400)(DK-$8,100)(Y!-$35)
FINALLY! Finally, the Colts are starting to lean on Taylor! His production has been elite, and his skill set is in full bloom! Look for head coach Frank Reich to up the ante with JT Sunday against the Jaguars!
Najee Harris PIT v DET(31st)(FD-$9,400)(DK-$7,900)(Y!-$14)
Talk about a sweet spot or a match made in heaven! The rookie, Najee Harris, is in the top-5 in terms of total targets and touches each week at the position(23.9). The definition of chalk, Harris will be, one of, if not the best plays at running back in Week 10.
Looking through the rest of the reasonably priced RB’s here’s what I have uncovered for Week 10!
Michael Carter NYJ v BUF(1st)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$14)
Do not let the match-up scare you. The Buffalo Bills are ranked first overall in defended opposing RB’s but volume is King! After only scoring six points in Week 9 I’d imagine they will be on some sort of ‘get right’ or ‘pedal to the metal’ type game script. However, they did let Carlos Hyde gain 67 yards on 21 carries. Nothing to write home about but I could see the rookie, Carter, see a similar amount of work at home on Sunday.
Devin Singletary BUF @ NYJ(32nd)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$17)
As the week progresses it will be interesting to see how much steam Devin picks up among the DFS crowd. Fellow Bill’s running back Zack Moss suffered a concussion early on in Week 9. Meaning, now Moss will have to clear a five-step protocol to play on Sunday in New York. Keep a close eye on this situation. Devin Singletary could be in line for a TON of work here in Week 10!
Javonte Williams DEN v PHI(28th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$19)
What a sight to be seen in Week 9 for the rookie running back! First few weeks of the season I mention Javonte over and over again in Bottom of the Barrel, not as a goof, but because his price tag on all DFS formats has not caught up. Yet, in Week 10, here we are! Javonte rushed 17 times for 111 yards on Sunday! J-Will had five rushes of 10 yards or more in this one and we should be setting Javonte in stone this week. At least in our DFS entries!
Nyheim Hines IND v JAX(12th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$16)
Last Thursday night Nyheim Hines rushed six times for 74 yards and a touchdown, catching four of six targets for 34 yards. Jonathan Taylor and Hines can both coexist on a weekly basis. Here’s hoping Thursday night was a wake-up call for the Colts coaching staff and has opened up the playbook for the two. I have Hines around seven carries and four receptions at home in Week 10.
Jordan Howard PHI @ DEN(11th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$15)
I know several people who would be embarrassed to mention Jordan Howard in their written work. While I relish it! It excites me! I live for a play like this. We are not the same! After his third touchdown in two games, it’s time to acknowledge how the Eagles are using him. Which is again perfect for what I’m trying to do with my DFS lines. The match-up in Denver is tough but if he continues to see double-digit touches it’s a good move in Week 10!
Mark Ingram II NO @ TEN(9th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$14)
Straight from Saints practice on Friday, November 12th, Alvin Kamara is still not practicing. Now, back-to-back days without AK41 practicing. Alvin’s status needs to be monitored as the weekend progresses. In the event Kamara is unable to play in Tennessee on Sunday Mark Ingram would get the start in his absence. The Titans are stout against the run but volume is always key!
Rhamondre Stevenson NE v CLE(9th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$16)
Rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushed 10 times for 62 yards and caught both of his targets for 44 yards in Week 9. He also averaged a juicy 6.2 yards a carry! Stevenson also took a nasty shot to his head forcing him out of the game with a concussion. He is now in the NFL’s concussion protocol ahead of Sunday’s game against Cleveland. Obviously, it’s a situation to monitor but at this point, I firmly believe the rookie is now the Patriots RB2 behind Damien Harris.
D’Ernest Johnson CLE @ NE(17th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$13)
Early Tuesday afternoon it was confirmed Cleveland Brown’s running backs, Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton have tested positive for COVID-19. Each player will now need two negative tests 24 hours apart to play. Realistically, Johnson might be, in fact, the only healthy running for Cleveland in Week 10.
AJ Dillon GB v SEA(30th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,800)(Y!-$17)
I have always found it perfectly acceptable to show excitement! The Green Bay Packers are starting to take shape and punish teams with their outstanding running back combo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. There have been several times the last few weeks where people have been visibly upset with Aaron Jones’s usage in favor of Dillon. All that aside AJ’s price tag in all formats has remained mind-numbingly low! In Week 10 the Pack host Seattle and their leaky run defense. I would expect around fifteen total touches in this one. Little ambitious yes, but AJ Dillon is a must-have for DFS formats in Week 10.
Eno Benjamin ARZ v CAR(4th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,400)(Y!-$13)
James Conner was a man possessed in Week 9! Was great to see! Fellow Arizona running back, Chase Edmonds, has confirmed a high ankle sprain and will miss ‘multiple weeks’. In relief of Chase in Week 9 Eno carried the ball nine times for 37 yards and a touchdown. DFS has always been about mitigating risk and there is nothing riskier than playing Eno Benjamin in Week 10. Although, if you could promise me double-digit targets/touches for Eno in Week 10 then he becomes a slam dunk!
Jermar Jefferson DET @ PIT(5th)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,000)(Y-$10)
Big time reach here, I am aware! However, fresh of their bye week, no telling how the Detroit Lions come out here in Pittsburgh. Fully expecting them to lose big but that’s not the point. What I’m alluding to is the health of both Detroit running backs. Jamaal Williams was inactive in Week 8. While Swift has been on and off the injury report season. I am not expecting a massive point total from Jermar but in-game the Lions should be trailing early and often why can’t Jefferson get some run?
Brandon Bolden NE v CLE(9th)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,400)(Y!-$13)
Let’s say rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson is not cleared in Week 10 due to the concussion. Who stands to benefit the most? Aside from Harris, my vote is for Brandon Bolden! When given the ball Bolden has been effective. So, keep this one at the top of your to-do list come Sunday. Double back around and check in on the status of both Stevenson and Harris prior to lock on Sunday.
D’Onta Foreman TEN v NO(3rd)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$11)
Running back by committee. That awful phrase is very much in play with this Titan backfield. So week-to-week with these running backs is like playing the shell game. Obviously, I’d imagine it’s Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson as 1a and 1b which takes away the ownership of D’Onta Foreman. I’ve built my DFS lines on less information so let’s run it!
Giovani Bernard TB @ WSH(18th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,300)(Y!-$13)
Gio is an interesting play here in Week 10. Clearly only a situational player but on a very good team. So, it’s a pick your poison type thing. Situationally speaking, how comfortable would be betting on the Buccaneers to absolutely annihilate Washington on Sunday? If you answered yes then Gio makes for a great play in your DFS lines!
Davante Adams GB v SEA(15th)(FD-$8,700)(DK-$7,900)(Y!-$32)
Adams as the highest-priced player in Week 10 should come as no surprise. Stud talent in a sweet match-up will do that!
There are numerous other studs WR’s, about a dozen, that are high priced and look good! That’s not the idea behind Bottom of the Barrel! So, follow me here, and let’s look at the lesser owned wide receivers!
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DeVonta Smith PHI @ DEN(13th)(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,900)(Y!-$16)
DeVonta Smith caught five of his six targets for 116 yards and a touchdown Sunday. The Eagles rookie played very well against a formidable Chargers secondary. Denver poses another tough test for Smith but should be just fine given the fact he will once again lead the team in targets!
Cole Beasley BUF @ NYJ(7th)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,200)(Y!-$17)
Mentioned in last week’s Bottom of the Barrel Bills Cole Beasley caught eight off 11 targets for 33 yards. You read that right! Eight receptions for only 33 yards. If you do the math, it checks out to 4.12 yards per target. I know running backs with a higher yard per carrying than that! All fun aside Cole has been very reliable for both the Bills and us DFS players. In Week 10 the entire world
Jarvis Landry CLE @ NE(12th)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,200)(Y!-$16)
The last week has been a whirlwind of crap after the Browns released Odell Beckham Jr. Some good but true to social media form most was bad and hateful. Any way you slice it the departure of OBJ has freed up more targets and touches for the Cleveland receivers especially Jarvis Landry. Heading into Week 10 the Browns may be without Nick Chubb and rookie back Demetric Felton. While Kareem Hunt remains on IR. So, by a process of elimination Landry should command double-digit targets, right?
Russell Gage ATL @ DAL(25th)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$17)
Gage caught 7 of 8 targets for 64 yards in Week 9. It was Gage’s busiest day of the season! With fantasy football and DFS volume and opportunity are what we’re looking for! Well, Gage has both!
Marvin Jones Jr. JAX @ IND(27th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,800)(Y!-$16)
Is it weird I have a feeling Marvin Jones Jr. has one of his multi-touchdown performances that no one sees coming? How many though? Two? Three?
Zach Pascal IND v JAX(24th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$14)
Zach Pascal caught four of seven targets for 58 yards as the Colts beat the Jets on Thursday night. Pascal has seen 26 targets over the last three games, and I see no reason why that changes in Week 10.
Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE @ NE(12th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$4,800)(Y!-$15)
Simply put, without Odell Beckham around this Cleveland Brown’s offense should open just a little. DPJ is amid a breakout here and I want in on it! More specifically, on a week-to-week basis!
Kendrick Bourne NE v CLE(19th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,600)(Y!-$13)
Kendrick Bourne grabbed 3-of-4 targets for 34 yards in Week 9 as the Patriots beat the Panthers. Bourne also co-led the Patriots in targets and led the team in catches. However, Mac Jones and the Patriots didn’t have to throw much. In Week 10 though we’re in for a treat! I am fully expecting Mac to throw the ball around 35 times. Let’s see if Kendrick can keep the target hog namesake rolling!
Kalif Raymond DET @ PIT(23rd)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$10)
Bad team in a blowout playing from behind from the start. Oddly enough, Kalif has become a target monster for the Lions. Granted it’s not exactly sunshine and rainbows but the points are there, and the price points are nice. Raymond makes for a great last-minute pivot!
Michael Gallup DAL v ATL(17th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$16)
Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (calf) is expected to return in Week 10 against the Falcons, per Michael Gehlken of The Athletic. Which is music to a lot of fantasy players’ ears. More importantly, those of us playing DFS in Week 10. Here’s how I see it; Dallas fell flat in Week 9. They were embarrassed during their loss to Denver. I am fully expecting the wrath of the Cowboy’s offense here in Week 10. All hands-on deck and weapons are in play. From what I have read Gallup was close to playing in Week 9. Week 10 should be a welcome back type game for him!
Deonte Harris NO @ TEN(32nd)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$17)
Don’t look now but the Saints seem to have a new WR1 and his name is Deonte Harris! Shocking but fantastic! Harris caught 6-of-8 targets for 52 yards in Week 9. Deonte led the team in targets with eight. If he stays on this current pace and opportunity share, he will be an outstanding play in Week 10!
Jamal Agnew JAX @ IND(32nd)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$12)
In Jacksonville’s last four games Laviska Shenault’s target share has been around 13% In those last four games BOTH Marvin Jones Jr. AND Jamal Agnew have seen more targets. This Agnew thing started for me a few weeks back in Bottom of the Barrel and it will continue into Week 10!
Tyler Johnson TB @ WSH(31st)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$3,300)(Y!-$10)
So, it has come to my attention after a recent Q&A with Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians that Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, and now Chris Godwin are all questionable in Week 10. Doesn’t take a lot of digging to see how sweet the DvP match-up is against Washington. Tom Brady should have a field on Sunday and if given extra snaps so will Tyler Johnson!
Scotty Miller TB @ WSH(31st)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,000)(Y!-$10)
Well, as the week progresses so do the depths of my DFS rabbit hole! We are all plugged in on social media, practice reports, and even injury reports. Meaning, there are several Tampa Bay Buccaneer players with questionable tags heading into Week 10. More importantly, Chris Godwin. Which lead me to Tyler Johnson of course! However, the secret is out! So, let’s pivot from a player on this team to another player on the same team! By all accounts, Scotty may be ready to roll in Week 10!
Kene Nwangwa MIN @ LAC(29th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$10)
Let me know when you’re done laughing and I will continue. All set? Thank you. The Vikings have a clear pecking order with their offense. Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and now Tyler Conklin. So why mention Kene? This kid is lightning fast and returned a kickoff for a 98-yard touchdown last Sunday in Baltimore. He also took the ball for 9 yards on a fake punt. That alone tells me the Vikes think enough of this kid to get him, and his speed, involved in any way possible.
Kyle Pitts ATL @ DAL(21st)(FD-$6,900)(DK-$5,800)(Y!-$21)
Once again, the young kid is at the top! Granted, Kelce is not included in the main slate, but I digress! Kyle Pitts is the real deal and I fully expect this game in Dallas to be fireworks.
Follow me as I take you through my collection of cheaper tight ends, I am more than willing to roster in Week 10!
Hunter Henry NE v CLE(13th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,100)(Y!-$15)
Hunter Henry caught 2-of-3 targets for 19 yards and a touchdown Sunday in Carolina. Hunter has now scored five touchdowns in the last six contests. Henry is only averaging 1.75 targets a game and 25 total yards but the touchdowns will continue to flow. What more could you ask for when streaming a tight end?!
Ricky Seals-Jones WSH v TB(23rd)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$3,700)(Y!-$11)
Last I heard Washington tight end Logan Thomas may be available to play in Week 10. That would then relegate Ricky back to obscurity. Keep an eye on Logan’s status Sunday before lock.
Tyler Conklin MIN @ LAC(27th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$3,400)(Y!-$16)
Tyler Conklin caught 5-of-7 targets for 45 yards in Week 9. As wild as it sounds Conklin led the Vikings in receptions and co-led the team in targets! What’s even more shocking is the fact he has emerged as the clear No. 3 pass-catcher in this offense! The Vikings fed him given the Ravens leaky defense against tight ends. Looking ahead to Week 10 the Chargers are just as bad against opposing tight ends.
Dan Arnold JAX @ IND(25th)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$3,500)(Y!-$14)
Danny boy grabbed 4-of-7 targets for 60 yards in Week 9 against the Bills. This is now the second straight week Arnold has led the Jags in catches, receiving yards, and targets. The chemistry between Dan and rookie QB Trevor Lawrence is undeniable. It warrants our attention in Week 10.
Pat Freiermuth PIT v DET(10th)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$3,900)(Y!-$16)
We have a new young stud tight end in our midst! After his two touchdown receptions on Monday night, I’d expect his ownership on Sunday to be sky-high given the match-up. No worries I’ll eat this chalk.
Donald Parham Jr. LAC v MIN(5th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$2,600)(Y!-$11)
While everyone is flocking towards Jared Cook this week do yourself a favor and give Donald Parham Jr. a look instead. Herbert and Parham have been on the same wavelength all season.
David Njoku CLE @ NE(4th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$3,200)(Y!-$11)
Cleveland tight end David Njoku caught an 18-yard touchdown Sunday against the Bengals. While it was his only reception on three targets, I have a feeling the Browns will get creative Sunday in New England. David remains on the field and can be a playmaker. He just needs a little more work! I think comes Sunday!
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That it is! Bottom of the Barrel for Week 10 of the NFL season!
That is, it! Did I miss someone? Any questions or comments?
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