Bottom of the Barrel Week 13 NFL DFS Breakdown
Bottom of the Barrel Week 13 NFL DFS Breakdown
Bottom of the Barrel Week 13
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie
Human beings are always being pushed to their limits. Whether it is self-induced or by others. Lots of self-help books and motivational speakers preach testing your limits and boundaries daily. What exactly does that mean? To be honest, it is different for everyone. Let’s briefly explore!
There are lots of ways to test yourself and push yourself. Some of the most popular come from physical exertion, feats of strength, but also emotionally. They say pushing one’s limits physically goes hand-in-hand with our mental stimulation. No matter which way you get your kicks it comes down to one simple question. What are you able to live with?
With every decision we make comes a fast action right or wrong response in our brain. The old angel and devil on each shoulder adage. What will your conscience allow you to get away with? We are wired differently. The idea of mind over matter is what I am getting at. Each move we make on a daily basis can either add to our emotional well-being or drain it. Choose carefully!
As we turn our attention to Week 13 of the NFL season what can you live with? Both physically and emotionally? Choosing to roster Jonathan Taylor will no doubt bring positive stimulation. While choosing to select Baltimore running back Devonta Freeman may result in emotional distress. How far are you willing to go in Week 13?
Go check out all the premium DFS packages Rise or Fall has to offer! https://teamriseorfall.com/subscribe-now/
Lamar Jackson BAL @ PIT(16th)(FD-$8,500)(DK-$7,800)(Y!-$38)
I want to be honest with you here, I never really looked at Lamar as this bigger-than-life fantasy football stud. Well, I was wrong. After catching a quick clip of him on the field with Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett I must say, this kid is fantastic. I am aware this has nothing to do with fantasy sports, but it has everything to do with likeability. Sometimes this thing we’re doing is more important than fantasy.
As we turn out attention to the quarterbacks in Week 13 one thing is clear, I will be attacking the slate with cheap quarterbacks. Let’s dig in!
Derek Carr LV v WSH(32nd)(FD-$7,500)(DK-$6,000)(Y!-$31)
What a performance from the Raiders and Carr on Thanksgiving! Derek completed 24 of 39 passes Thursday, racking up 373 passing yards and one touchdown. Fun fact, which I am sure you have heard, but The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr throws for at least 300 yards, and 0-5 when he doesn’t. So it’s pretty clear the success of this team runs directly through Derek. In Week 13 the match-up couldn’t get any sweeter! On Monday night the entire field was there for the taking. Russ Wilson and the Seahawks could not capitalize. Almost certain Carr and the Raiders will not make that same mistake.
Carson Wentz IND @ HOU(22nd)(FD-$7,500)(DK-$7,500)(Y!-$23)
In Week 12 Carson Wentz was 27-for-44 with 306 yards passing along with while three touchdown passes. Carson and Colts were involved in a very competitive game with Tampa Bay. They fell short 38-31 but it was another nice fantasy performance for Carson. In Week 13 the Colts and Wentz have another outstanding match-up. Carson should be on our radar this week.
Joe Burrow CIN v LAC(6th)(FD-$7,400)(DK-$6,300)(Y!-$27)
Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow completed 20-of-24 passes for 190 yards, a passing touchdown, and another one on the ground. The Bengals trucked Pittsburgh! Granted on the strength of Joe Mixon but you know what they say? A strong running game opens it all up for the passing game. Yes, this match-up is tough against an active Chargers secondary but I believe the casual DFS players will glance right over Burrow. Do not make that mistake.
Russell Wilson SEA v SF(20th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,400)(Y!-$25)
Wow! The Seattle Seahawks looked awful for most of the game on Monday Night. That last possession was Wilson’s saving grace in the box score and ending with a touchdown pass. Truth be told I added Russell to my notes late Sunday night before Seattle played on Monday. Upon further review, I am leaving him here. There’s just no way Pete Carroll and the Seattle offense stay down two weeks in a row. After all this time Wilson still carries a floor of 240 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13.
Taylor Heinicke WSH @ LV(18th)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$26)
Heinicke is no stranger to adversity. He is also no stranger to being overlooked. On Monday night Taylor completed 27-of-35 passes for 223 yards while throwing one touchdown. What I love most about Heinicke on a weekly basis is his motor. He goes all out every play. Meaning, the on-field production just continues to roll. The fact Washington is still on the hunt for a Wildcard spot tells me everything I need to know. Pedal to the metal for Washington and Taylor Heinicke!
Tyrod Taylor HOU v IND(26th)(FD-$7,000)(DK-$5,300)(Y!-$26)
Tyrod only completed 17 passes for 158 yards in Week 12. Taylor did throw two touchdown passes and added 30 yards on the ground but struggled to get going for most of the game. On a lighter note, the Colts were destroyed on the ground by Tampa Bay running back Leonard Fournette. We both know Tyrod, in a way, is also the Texans running back. I am willing to take a chance on Mr. Taylor in Week 13. Who’s to say he can’t find the endzone twice, on the ground, Sunday?
Tua Tagovailoa MIA v NYG(14th)(FD-$6,900)(DK-$5,500)(Y!-$26)
After all this time the masses are still overlooking Tua. Large groups of folks have already given up on him! While his completion rates the last two weeks have been around 80% and he has been incredibly accurate! The connection between him and Jaylen Waddle has been off the charts! Almost everything we do is a matter of perspective. Some people see Tua as a bust while I see him as an outstanding play in DFS formats week-to-week.
Jonathan Taylor IND @ HOU(25th)(FD-$10,500)(DK-$9,200)(Y!-$41)
After an insane stat line in Week 11, he failed to live up to those expectations in Week 12. Obviously, I am kidding! JT’s performance in Week 12 was fantastic given the fact he kept his, now eight, game touchdown streak alive. If you’re still hanging with NFL DFS this far into the season, then you know how insanely high-owned Taylor will be in Week 13. Can you blame the masses? Certified stud status.
Joe Mixon CIN v LAC(29th)(FD-$9,400)(DK-$8,100)(Y!-$34)
You might have just asked yourself why Joe Mixon is mentioned here. Only because I wanted to give him a quick shoutout. Mixon has been phenomenal this season. All the naysayers and other folks who buried him and refused to rank him appropriately were wrong. Fantasy football isn’t always doom and gloom! It can be exciting and exhilarating too!
The state of running backs in Week 13 is yet again grim. The top tier of the cheapest backs is as good as it gets. When we crack the slate open and dive in, we need to be perfect with our running back selections. He is on my list for Week 13!
Antonio Gibson WSH @ LV(28th)(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,700)(Y!-$21)
On Monday night Antonio Gibson carried the ball 29 times for 111 yards while also catching seven passes for 35 yards. Was an outstanding performance for Gibby. While I know some of you are still sour given the fact J.D. McKissic vulture two touchdowns, but the needle is pointed up for Antonio. McKissic was carted off with an apparent head/neck injury meaning Gibson could be in line for even more work in Las Vegas.
Devonta Freeman BAL @ PIT(22nd)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,500)(Y!-$18)
Don’t look now but Freeman has been heavily involved in this Ravens offense as of late! Devonta rushed 16 times for 52 yards and added an eight-yard catch. As shocking as it sounds Freeman is now the Ravens lead back while Latavius Murray is sprinkled in. With back-to-back AFC North tussles, I would expect John Harbaugh to feed Murray the ball.
J.D. McKissic WSH @ LV(28th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$13)
As I’ve mentioned before my notes are done Sunday night and into Monday afternoon. Well, Monday night McKissic was carted off with a head/neck injury. By all accounts and from local Washington beat writers, J.D. was seemingly fine and in the locker room after the game. Let’s keep an eye on his status this week of practice. If the team doctors do not clear him to play in Week 13, we can pivot to Jaret Patterson. We wish J.D. the best here at Team Rise or Fall.
DeeJay Dallas SEA v SF(17th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$10)
Well, once again I have good news and bad news. Which one shall I share first? If you’re like me you’d prefer the bad first, then finish up with the good. So, the Seahawks have a brutal defensive match-up in Week 13. The 49ers, on both sides, have come alive recently. Not good news for a Seattle team already struggling on offense. However, the offensive coaching staff has actively been getting DeeJay involved. That’s it, that’s the good news. The hopeful volume is what I am after with Mr. Dallas in Week 13.
Jermar Jefferson DET v MIN(24th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,600)(Y!-$11)
When it comes to daily fantasy football and more importantly, Bottom of the Barrel, an opportunity is key. D’Andre Swift hurt his shoulder on Thanksgiving leaving Jamaal Williams to carry the load. In that same game, Jermar’s snap percentage was only 10% but I firmly believe Jefferson will see a larger bump Sunday against an all-green match-up against the Vikings.
Jaret Patterson WSH @ LV(28th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$10)
As I was collecting some information on Gibson and McKissic it hit me! Jaret Patterson is worth a mention this week based on the status of J.D. McKissic. The rookie has seen a little run as of late including seven total carries on Monday night. This game kicks off at 4:05p EST and if the Football Team is without J.D. I do believe Jaret handles a double-digit type of workload. The kid is smart and instinctive and could make a splash.
Kenyan Drake LV v WSH(19th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,400)(Y!-$13)
Seems as if I mention Drake each week in Bottom of the Barrel. Week-to-week he’s hit or miss. Such is the life of a DFS player. Last week he stunk. Kenyan only saw four carries and two receptions Sunday night for only 31 total yards. Yuck! I am hoping and praying for a better result Sunday in the desert.
Phillip Lindsay MIA v NYG(27th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,200)(Y!-$12)
The turnaround here is outstanding! Days after the Dolphins grabbed Phil they gave him 12 carries! Miami ran away with this one early but it was still nice to see them feed Lindsay! Do we think Phil has leap-frogged Salvon Ahmed on the depth chart? Regardless, Phillip has great field vision and could be a great move for our DFS lines this week.
Jeff Wilson Jr. SF @ SEA(31st)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,800)(Y!-$17)
In a weird way, this isn’t so much about Jeff but about the match-up. The Seahawks were absolutely gashed on Monday night by Washington’s running backs. I shudder to think what the 49er’s backs can do!
Kene Nwangwu MIN @ DET(30th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,300)(Y!-$12)
Anytime we’re able to plug in a kid with blazing speed in a terrific situation I’d say that’s newsworthy. With Dalvin Cook set to miss the next few weeks, we may have a little opening to use Kene. Yes, I am aware Alexander Mattison will literally see 20ish attempts but who’s to say he doesn’t soften up Lion’s defense for Nwangwu to make a house call?
Ty Johnson NYJ v PHI(23rd)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,600)(Y!-$12)
This season has been wild. Hard to get a handle on, up and down. Not kidding when I say I thought Ty Johnson was a sure thing in Week 12. However, I can take solace in the fact I was not alone. Let’s let vanishing sleeping dogs lie and look ahead to Week 13. The state of competent RB’s is diminishing day by day. Given the match-up, dammit, I am in again!
Nyheim Hines IND @ HOU(25th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$15)
With so much attention going to JT, rightfully so, we can plug and play Hines with little to no downside. Also, little to no ownership percentage. It could be a Hines week! Well, after Taylor gets his.
Ronald Jones II TB @ ATL(26th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$13)
Something something attention. Something something Leonard Fournette. Folks love to poke fun at the Rojo truthers. I get it, I’m a fun guy! Fournette’s dominant performance aside, Ronald found his way into the endzone. Looking ahead to this match-up who on earth doesn’t see the Buccaneers just completely wailing on the Falcons?
Godwin Igwebuike DET v MIN(24th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$10)
Another long shot but these NFL GPP’s are getting harder and harder to hit! Just a flyer based on the fact D’Andre Swift will be inactive for the next few weeks. Targets and touches will start with Jamaal Williams and trickle down to Jermar and Godwin.
Cooper Kupp LAR v JAX(22nd)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$9,000)(Y!-$38)
Coop only caught seven passes for 96 yards Sunday afternoon. How dare he does not score multiple times and surpass 150 total yards! Jokes aside, Kupp is literally a must-start in Week 13. Almost certain he makes it right Sunday afternoon.
The beauty of not only DFS but the 2021 season is the fact that the wide receiver pool is so deep. The last few weeks I have been pulled in the direction of rostering cheap RB’s and spending up at the wide receiver spot. No change in that motto in Week 13.
DeVonta Smith PHI @ NYJ(19th)(FD-$6,300)(DK-$6,100)(Y!-$18)
GET THIS KID THE FOOTBALL!
Elijah Moore NYJ v PHI(3rd)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,500)(Y!-$18)
On paper, this match-up does not look good. However, all it takes is one ball with this kid! With the return of Zach Wilson in Week 12, the two struggled to find a groove. Understandable but no long-term issue. Would not be shocked to see the Jets press the issue.
Odell Beckham Jr. LAR v JAX(22nd)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$5,500)(Y!-$19)
Odell Beckham Jr. snagged five passes for 81 receiving yards and a touchdown at Lambeau Sunday. I have been open and honest with you so why hold back now. I am sure you know what I am about to say. Odell is off, he looks hurt. I should say sore and in pain. Nothing to worry about yet, but one wrong move and he’s on the sideline. Buyer beware!
Kenny Golladay NYG @ MIA(29th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$17)
Kenny G only nabbed three of his seven targets for 50 yards on Sunday. On a lighter note, Golladay’s role in this offense should not be in question. As Kenny heats up it’ll be a sight to be seen. He works best in a rhythm with downfield looks. I am fully expecting fireworks in Miami on Sunday. The fun starts at 1:00p EST!
Van Jefferson Jr. LAR v JAX(22nd)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,300)(Y!-$14)
Van Jr. has slowly started to emerge as a nice complimentary piece to not only our seasonal fantasy teams but a fantastic GPP dart each week. Cool and calculated has always been my move when it comes to large prize pools. Jefferson Jr. is an outstanding play in Week 13.
Rondale Moore ARZ @ CHI(27th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$16)
Fresh off their bye week I think the number one question here is the availability of Kyler Murray. Mr. Murray is ‘hopeful’ to play in Week 13. Any way you slice it, given the match-up, Rondale has to have our attention.
Rashod Bateman BAL @ PIT(24th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$18)
Bateman caught all four of his targets for 31 yards in Week 12. Not saying the targets have dried up but has he fallen back into the spot we assumed he would? Third in the pecking order behind Hollywood and Mark Andrews? Look, not saying that’s a bad spot to be but we should temper our expectations on a weekly basis. With a tough divisional match-up ahead let’s see how Baltimore attacks this one. Willing to bet it’s through the air!
Darius Slayton NYG @ MIA(29th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,600)(Y!-$16)
As Kenny G comes alive so will the other receivers! In seasonal formats, he’s a desperation play. In DFS formats he’s a punt play with upside. See the difference? Honestly, I just made it up, but it made sense. It’s the match-up that’s appetizing here.
Zay Jones LV v WSH(30th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$3,200)(Y!-$13)
As Derek Carr goes so do the Raiders. On Thanksgiving Jones grabbed five of his seven targets for 59 yards. Zay saw a season-high seven targets in the win. As we push ahead the Football Team is riding a high as are the Raiders. This one could go nuclear! Strap in!
Josh Reynolds DET v MIN(31st)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$3,400)(Y!-$13)
As awful as it sounds there is a clear connection between Josh and Jared. At least that’s to go on here. Reynolds caught three of five targets for 70 yards and one touchdown last Thursday. Again, that’s a little something. To be fair, it’s enough to hang my hat on in Week 13.
Mark Andrews BAL @ PIT(12th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,000)(Y!-$22)
Mark caught 4-of-10 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. The receptions per target numbers here aren’t the greatest but we now know where Andrews stands in this offense.
When I got ahead of Week 13 with my notes the awful nature of the tight end position just hit me like a ton of bricks. There are literally two maybe three tight ends I would be cool paying up for. Yes, it’s that bad. I am aware of how much I have expressed my disdain for spending on tight ends. So, I promise I am not giving you false information to further my agenda.
Tyler Higbee LAR v JAX(24th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$3,800)(Y!-$15)
My note on Tyler reads as follows, “I can’t quit you!” For those of you keeping track at home that quote is from Broke Back Mountain. I do not know what it is about Tyler but dammit this guy is always in and around my DFS notes and plans. Telling you right now I hate it but hey, the Rams are playing the Jaguars.
Evan Engram NYG @ MIA(18th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$3,500)(Y!-$13)
Dammit! Just get over mentioning Tyler Higbee and now we’re onto Evan Engram. I really don’t know which player I despise more. However, Evan caught three of his six targets for 37 yards. The six targets were nice to see! I said it earlier, but it seems as though there have been more targets going around this Giants offense than usual.
C.J. Uzomah CIN v LAC(30th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$3,200)(Y!-$16)
Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah caught all three of his targets for nine yards against the Steelers in Week 12. The Charger’s defense is a little hot and cold. For example, they are 29th vs. RB’s, 30th vs. TEs but 2nd vs. WR’s, and 6th vs. QBs. So as easily as that DvP information is found I am sure the Cincinnati coaching staff is aware. Just makes sense that they would attack at the most vulnerable positions.
Tyler Conklin MIN @ DET(11th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$3,700)(Y!-$14)
Another scenario where it’s more about the match-up rather than the player. As this one plays out the Vikes will obviously lean on Mattiston but Jefferson and Adam will see plenty of looks. I have said this before but there is a clear pecking order in this Minnesota offense. Maybe the absence of Cook affords a few extra looks to Tyler Conklin.
That it is! Bottom of the Barrel for Week 13 of the NFL season!
That is, it! Did I miss someone? Any questions or comments?
Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie
Or at Team Rise or Fall! https://twitter.com/TeamRiseorFall