Bottom of the Barrel Week 17 Running Backs NFL DFS Breakdown
Bottom of the Barrel Week 17 Running Backs NFL DFS Breakdown
December 28, 2022
As a kid Christmas felt like this month-long magical event. Multiple parties with friends and family with endless food and presents. As a boy I had to fight to stay awake. As an adult it comes and goes in the blink of an eye. As a man I willingly go to sleep early.
The week after Christmas leading up to the New Year has always been this weird nothing matters and nothing to do time. As a kid it was this endless time to hang out with your friends, play outside, or try out the newest video games! As an adult it’s about dodging calls, laying low, and being left alone.
The more things change the more they stay the same. Deep down we all know if put to the test we could stay up late and hang out with the best of them. That Christmas magic never really goes away, it just takes on a different meaning. Hopefully you had a peaceful and fulfilling holiday! One more to go, the New Year!
Let’s use some of the Christmas cash to boost our daily fantasy sports entries and winnings! All done responsibly, of course! Week 17 is upon us and here are some players and ideas I am rolling with.
I’ll get into all the details after a quick note about our new membership options! 😺
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Christian McCaffrey SF @ LV(26th)(FD-$9,500)(DK-$9,000)(Y!-$35)
Don’t know about you but I find this 49ers team to be extremely dangerous, in a good way. CMC rushed 15 times for 46 yards and a touchdown in Week 16. He also caught both targets for 12 yards. Look, the Commanders have a world class defensive line, so the fact CMC only averaged 3.1 yards per attempt is an anomaly. The coming match against Vegas should have you seeing stars and dollar signs. Not kidding when I say that CMC has a chance at being the overall RB1 this week. The Raiders are giving up around 116.6 rushing yards a game. While San Francisco is running for, on average, 134.7 yards a game. Vegas has also also given up 15 total touchdowns, on the ground, to opposing RBs. Let’s say CMC gains 110 yards on 16 total carries. That would be 6.8 yards per attempt. For some players that would be egregious but for CMC it’s a normal circumstance. Any way we look at this, CMC is a must have this week. CMC should be our anchor and starting point for our DFS lines in Week 17.
Zonovan Knight NYJ @ SEA(31st)(FD-$6,400)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$20)
Zonovan carried the ball six times for minus-2 yards and caught his only target for 15 yards Thursday as the Jets lost 19-3 to the Jaguars. I mean, what? Six carries for negative yards? We have all made fun of Zach Wilson but there is no way he’s so bad that it rubbed off on Knight like this. Jokes aside the Jets are still fighting for a Wild Card spot but have fallen to the fifth spot in that race. Both teams need this game. Their seasons literally depend on it. As of this moment New York is averaging 104.9 rushing yards a game. While Seattle allows 155.53 rushing yards a game. Everything is set up perfectly for Knight to run wild here. I currently have Bam around 15-16 carries, 70 yards, 1-2 reception, and another 8-12 yards. It is now or never for both the Jets and Seahawks. So, let’s use that to our advantage on Sunday.
Isiah Pacheco KC vs. DEN(21st)(FD-$6,300)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$20)
Pacheco carried the ball 14 times for 58 yards and caught one pass for 32 yards last week. Jerick McKinnon and Pacheco have been able to coexist and produce for our respective DFS, and seasonal, teams. These last few games of the regular season can be tricky but also telling in terms of what each playoff team is up to. It looks like McKinnon will handle the passing down work as Pacheco checks in for the running downs. Denver is currently first against defending opposing QBs and WRs. Do not let that fool you as they rank 21st against running backs and 24th against tight ends. Look for the Chiefs to score early and often in this one as Isiah carries the ball 15-16 times, gains 70 yards, and a reception or two for another 10 yards.
Michael Carter NYJ @ SEA(31st)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$18)
If you are an avid Bottom of the Barrel reader, then you’re aware we aren’t afraid to stack up entire backfields. Unless I am way off, I remember when folks despised the idea of running with two guys from the same team at the same position! Last Thursday Carter carried the ball twice for six yards in addition to five receptions for 44 yards. Much like the Kansas City running backs the Jets seemingly have the same plan of attack. Knight will carry the ball 12+ times a game while Carter will see 2, or more, targets a game. The Seahawks are currently allowing around 25.3 points a game which is 29th in the league. While the Jets get Mike White back to help open this offense up! As mentioned in the QB portion the Jets offense has averaged around 421.3 total yards per game with White at the helm. I have Carter with 5-6 carries, 25 yards, 3-4 receptions, and 30 yards.
Jeff Wilson Jr. MIA @ NE(2nd)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$5,400)(Y!-$14)
Raheem Mostert is clearly the Dolphins lead running back but again, he and Wilson Jr. have been able to coexist! Wilson Jr. carried the ball nine times for 37 yards and found the endzone last week. Jeff has now scored a touchdown in three of his last five games. However, Wilson has failed to accumulate 40, or more, rushing yards in four of those five games. The New England Patriots are going to be a tough and stiff test as they are allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. From a statistical standpoint this is bad news for the Miami RBs but what about the human factor? What about the fact the Fins and Pats have been battling for years on end and truly dislike each other? The Patriots have absolutely run rough shot over the AFC East for years on end. Times are changing as the Bills are now atop the East. Miami is 8-7 while the Patriots are 7-8 and both need this game or its all over. I am going to toss out all the match-up stuff as these two teams dig in and go to war. I am expecting 9-10 carries, 45 yards, 2-3 receptions, and another 15 yards for Jeff on Sunday.
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL vs. ARZ(28th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,400)(Y!-$15)
I feel as if stories of Patterson’s short dominance as a running back, wide receiver, and backup safety will live on long after we are gone. Not to mention his kindness to fans off the field. When we get down to business and Week 17 Cordarrelle has given way to Atlanta rookie RB Tyler Allgeier. However, with Arizona coming to town both backs should fill the box score. Opposing RBs against the Cardinals have averaged 4.6 YPC. While Patterson has averaged 4.9 YPC this year. Let’s count on 13-14 carries, 70 yards, 1-2 receptions, and 10 yards.
Royce Freeman HOU vs. JAX(20th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,600)(Y!-$13)
Well, looks as though Royce should be busy rest of the season. The only problem is the results might not match. Last week Freeman carried the ball 16 times for only 32 yards against the Titans. That is an awful 2 yards per carry. Oh well, no harm, and let’s look ahead to Week 17. The Jaguars are by no means a push over, but Freeman is currently being used in the Dameon Pierce role in Houston’s offense. Jacksonville is currently giving up around 114.67 rushing yards a game and have surrendered 14 total rushing touchdowns this year. Maybe I am off my rocker to suggest Royce Freeman this week but it just a feeling I cannot shake.
Antonio Gibson WSH vs. CLE(30th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$17)
It has become clear that Brian Robinson is the now the lead back in Washington. Yet, this Cleveland run defense is soft. Meanwhile, Gibby is still seeing around ten total targets and touches a game. The Commanders are hanging on to their 3rd and final Wild Card spot for dear life! I am almost certain they are aware of the importance of this game. My least favorite saying on earth is the term ‘food for thought’ but just in case you didn’t know, the Browns have allowed the third-most yards per rush to backs. Give me the Washington boys to combine for 135 rushing yards as they pummel the Browns!
Isaiah Spiller LAC vs. LAR(13th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$10)
Too bad the Rams stink this year, or this game could’ve been way more fun with some playoff implications. The Chargers have locked up a playoff spot while the Rams are just looking to be done this year. Baker Mayfield has played well as the Ram’s current starting QB. All spring and summer we listened to folks say how quickly Spiller was going to catch on and get meaningful touches. As of now, Isaiah has 18 total carries all season. Week 17 could be for all the Spiller freaks seeing how the Chargers are finally healthy, at the right time, headed into the postseason. In my mind why would they risk the health of any meaningful players? Give the rock to Spiller 20 times in this one, right?
Justin Jackson DET vs. CHI(25th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$10)
Normally Justin wouldn’t be on anyone’s radar on a weekly basis. Seeing how Jackson is the third string RB behind Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Unfortunately, Jamaal left last weeks game in the third quarter with an apparent leg injury. If there is a chance Justin sees the field as the Lions RB2 then count me in! The Detroit offense is centered around the passing game but the RBs get it done too. The visiting Bears are giving up 151.2 rushing yards a game. Keep an eye on William’s status ahead of Sundays game. I have two sets of projections for Justin. If Swift and Jamaal are active, I have Jackson at 4-5 carries, 20 yards, 1-2 receptions, and 8-10 yards. If Jamaal is out and it’s Swift and Justin then I have him at 9-10 carries, 50 yards, 2-3 receptions, 15-20 yards. Justin Jackson has a shot at being the secret key for Week 17’s DFS slate!
Khalil Herbert CHI @ DET(12th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$14)
Although the Bears season is over there is still pride on the line in Detroit on Sunday. David Montgomery is leading the Chicago backfield, but I would find it shocking if they didn’t get Herbert some run here in a favorable match-up. On paper the DvP says 12 but the Lions got blown up and blown out by the Carolina RB tandem of Foreman and Hubbard last week. I’d imagine the Detroit coaching staff has and will adjust, but the idea is still here. Let’s get ambitious and give Khalil 9-10 carries and 50 yards here. Along with 2-3 receptions for another 20-25 yards. If he finds the endzone then we are rolling!
James Cook BUF @ CIN(9th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$14)
James Cook broke out last week running for 99 total yards! Did you know that was the Bills best RB performance rushing wise in six years? James has 80 total carries this season for 462 yards. After some quick math that is a 5.8 yards per carry average! With Singletary being a free agent when the Bills season is done, I do believe Cook will be their lead back in 2023. However, the game at hand in Cincinnati is interesting and very intriguing from a fantasy perspective and in real life! Cook has also gone over 100 yards from scrimmage or scored a touchdown in three of the past four games played. The Bengal’s are hot. The Bengal’s are 5-0 their last 5 games. The Bills are just as hot. The Bills are also 5-0 their last 5 games. Monday Night Football should be one for the record books and I want as much James Cook as I can handle!
Did you miss this week’s Bottom of the Barrel QB DFS breakdown? No fear just click the link and you will be right there! http://bit.ly/BeastieWK17QB
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