Bottom of the Barrel Week 18 Running Backs NFL DFS Breakdown
Bottom of the Barrel Week 18 Running Backs NFL DFS Breakdown
January 4, 2023
Keeping with the trust and honesty of our relationship I put this article off a day because I had no idea what to do. Bottom of the Barrel has always been a light and fun idea filled with jokes and other nonsense. If you felt like me then we were forced to face our own mortality on Monday night, which is scary. Without our health we really have nothing.
We can only handle so much stress. We can only handle the burdens of a twenty-four-hour period. Any more than that and our backs would break. I have always been a big proponent on that, “things will happen how they’re supposed to.” rationale. However, a little work in between mixed with some positive behavior couldn’t hurt.
Let’s talk about some running backs for Week 18!
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We are in a very strange spot with running backs in Week 18. Will we see the starters and studs from the good teams with already locked playoff spots for a limited time like CMC and Ekeler? Some of the other high-priced studs will play for the teams still looking to lock in their playoff seeding or grab the last few spots like Ken Walker III and Travis Etienne Jr. What about the teams going nowhere who may want to give their guys some extra reps? The likes of Jaylen Warren, Jordan Mason, and Joshua Kelley? It’s going to be good and it’s going to be fun!
Christian McCaffrey SF vs. ARZ(29th)(FD-$10,000)(DK-$9,300)(Y!-$37)
Seeing how this is Week 18 of the NFL season I feel as if we can talk in absolutes. CMC is a stone-cold stud. He is the RB1 and his move to San Francisco has made him even more dangerous. No secret that the 49ers should hang 35+ points against the Cardinals. At what point in this game is CMC pulled and sent to the showers? I’d say after he’s handled 20 total targets and touches and accumulates 120, or more, all-purpose yards.
James Cook BUF vs. NE(4th)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$12)
After Monday Night Football and the positive updates from the hospital regarding Damar Hamlin I’d be willing to bet the Bills are amped up. That is putting it mildly after what we witnessed on Monday Night. When we lock back into football the Bills are 12-3 and should fall right into that #2 seed seeing how Kansas City plays the lowly Raiders on Saturday. If by chance Vegas beats KC, then Buffalos full wrath may fall on the Patriots seeing how the Bills beat Kansas City in Week 6. Meaning that #1 seed is there’s with a win. The Chiefs will pummel Vegas and the Bills may elect to play it cool Sunday. With Singletary being the guy, for now, what would it hurt to cut loose Cook? New England still has a shot at the playoffs so these two won’t be playing paddy cake. Give me Cook to see 9-10 carries, 45-50 yards, 2-3 targets, and another 15 yards.
Damien Harris NE @ BUF(7th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,300)(Y!-$16)
Same game as James Cook in the blurb above. I would not want to step foot into Highmark Stadium on Sunday as the opposing team. All that energy, love, and power from both the fans and players is going to be tough sledding on the opposing Patriots. However, was good to see Harris back in with that burst and elite movement as he made his cuts. Was also promising to see him rotated into the game while the Pats were in the red zone. All of this seems promising as New England needs this win, very bad. For that reason, I love his prospects in Buffalo on Sunday. I have Harris around 9-10 carries, 40-45 yards, 2-3 targets, and another 15 yards.
Gus Edwards BAL @ CIN(8th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$17)
Most reports I have read leading up to this game are all bad news for both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. With D.J. Reader lining up opposite of each guy that is bad news but on the off chance this offensive front of the Ravens get wear down the Bengals front seven we may have a game. I won’t lie to you here to push my narrative. I have the Bengals winning 24-17 but who wins and who loses never matters to me and my DFS entries. Where are the points coming from? If Gus can punch one in here on his 10-11 carries, I’d be a happy man. Let’s also expect 60 yards on the ground. I’d say that is a successful day for our running back spot.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn TB @ ATL(17th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$14)
What are the chances the Bucs treat this as a third preseason game? Starters play the first quarter and maybe into the second then it’s all a job well done boys release the second and third teams? If that is the case, then Tampa might as well cut Ke’Shawn loose. This kid has always had gusto. Remember way back when he was drafted how nuts social media went in his favor? That kind of talent doesn’t just get up and walk away. A lot of speculation on my part but the process is sound!
Royce Freeman HOU @ IND(25th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$4,400)(Y!-$14)
Freeman carried the ball seven times for 19 yards and caught three of five targets for 20 yards. Royce did lead all the other Texans backs in snaps (30) but as you can see was not very productive. If that holds true, this week against the Colts, I could picture him having a much better day statistically! Yet, Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead will steal some looks. If you trust me then let’s take this ride together! I have Royce around 13-14 carries, 50 yards, 2-3 targets, and another 15 yards.
Jaylen Warren PIT vs. CLE(27th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,400)(Y!-$15)
Jaylen carried the ball 12 times for 76 yards and caught all three of his targets for 22 yards last week. Was a nice stat line for the undrafted rookie back as he set season-highs in rushing yards and touches! This offense will always go through Najee Harris but as the Steelers are still clinging to a playoff spot it would benefit them to explore all options on offense against the Browns. This Cleveland defense has tightened around opposing quarterbacks(2nd) and opposing wide receivers(6th). So realistically the best way to attack this team is through the running backs! The one-two punch of Harris and Warren makes a lot of sense here in Week 18. I have Jaylen around 7-8 carries, 40 yards, and 1-2 receptions for 15 yards.
Chase Edmonds DEN vs. LAC(26th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$14)
Chased rushed seven times for 34 yards and caught all three of his targets for 39 yards last week against the Chiefs. When it comes to snap counts and playing time Edmonds played 41 of Denver’s 70 offensive snaps. While Latavius Murray played only one more snap than Chase. We both know that Denver’s season is done, and it’s been an embarrassment but why would they ride Murray in this one when they can get an extended looked at the younger back who was recently acquired? Just makes too much sense. I have Chase around 11-12 carries, 60 yards, and a reception or two for about 5 yards. All signs are pointing up for Edmonds in this one, at least.
Joshua Kelley LAC @ DEN(24th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$16)
Not to sound egotistical or even overzealous but I find Kelley to be a layup this week! I mean nothing is a sure thing, but no way does the Chargers risk any injury to Austin Ekeler against a nasty Denver front. The Chargers have ten wins and have locked up a playoff spot. They are in no way catching the Chiefs so we might be dealing with this delicate balance of playing time for all Chargers players in Denver. With that being the case, we make some educated guesses and unnecessary risks. This is a shot I am more than happy to make! This kid can get up and mix that with some elusiveness and voila! We get Josh! I am going to shoot for the moon and project 11-12 carries, 55-60 yards, 2-3 receptions, and another 15-20 yards. All aboard!
Jordan Mason SF vs. ARZ(29th)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$5,000)(Y-$13)
Believe it or not the 49ers still have a shot at the #1 seed in the NFC Playoffs. Fortunately for them they host the Cardinals. While Philly hosts the Giants, and the Vikings play in Chicago. Regardless of the 2023 playoff picture the 49ers should have their way with Arizona. By have their way I mean 35+ points. I could see a scenario where Mason gets the entire 4th quarter to himself in the backfield. Given the current state of the Cardinals defense I’d say that is a good thing. Also, after taking a beating for three straight quarters I like Mason’s chances at eating up yardage. Something along the line of 10-11 carries, 50 yards, 1-2 receptions, and another 10 yards.
Khalil Herbert CHI vs. MIN(20th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$4,600)(Y!-$15)
Khalil has received 13 rushing attempts in the last two weeks since returning from injury. Also, the Chicago Bears have officially shut down their quarterback Justin Fields for the season. Nathan Peterman will start at QB for the Bears on Sunday. Been trying to think if this helps or hurts Khalil’s stock ahead of this contest. Personally, as a glass half kind of man, I think this gives Herbert a little boost. Chicago may opt to lean on the running game and let the clock tik away on their season. Give me Herbert at 9-10 carries, 45-50 yards, 1-2 receptions, and another 10-15 yards.
If you missed this week’s Bottom of the Barrel NFL DFS quarterback breakdown look no further! It is right here! Just click the link! http://bit.ly/BeastieWK18QB
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