Bottom of the Barrel Week 4 NFL DFS Breakdown
Rarely do I quote authors, doctors, or writers but one idea came to mind ahead of this week’s action. Robert Burns once said, “The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” As we wake up each morning, I’d imagine we all have ideas, appointments, and plans. How often have you had the perfect day? This means, everything from start to finish, has gone according to plan. Every single part of it. Every single moment. How often?
Folks talk like that from time to time, especially on social media. As a man with no wife and no kids, I’d imagine those of you who do may have had a perfect day or two. The day you got married. Day your children were born. In our minds, we map out and create the perfect day but rarely, if at all, does it happen.
The first few weeks of the NFL season are always tight and cramped up. Snooty and stuck-up in a way. Now, as we look ahead to Week 4, some juiciness has opened. Not a very professional term but I thought the best way to explain is in daily fantasy sports terms.
Unfortunately, injuries play a role. So does bad play but that also includes breakouts. In certain cases, like this year’s rookie wide receiver class, certain formats still have not caught up with pricing. I take the responsibility of finding those players and bringing them to you!
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Josh Allen BUF @ BAL(31st)(FD-$8,900)(DK-$8,400)(Y!-$40)
Mr. Josh Allen takes the top spot as the highest-priced quarterback! Won’t waste your time here on a Josh Allen blurb, as we all know his stud prowess. How many of you saw that little clip of your prince, Josh Allen, jerking and stuffing down a Miami Dolphin’s helmet and facemask? That was a tense game, a good game. While Allen also accused Christian Wilkins of grabbing his crotch. Who knows? Do we care? This is daily fantasy sports! Not some TMZ website!
As we look ahead to the quarterback position you will notice a few off-the-wall and outlandish QB’s in Bottom of the Barrel. Well, I never really count the exact number of players per position. We just follow the value and matchups here at B&B! With it being Week 4, keep an eye on it!
Aaron Rodgers GB vs. NE(26th)(FD-$7,400)(DK-$6,300)(Y!-$26)
I had no idea Aaron Rodgers was on with Joe Rogan a few weeks back. Has nothing to do with Week 4 but I still found it interesting. The short clip I did see about the NFL providing narcotics like pain pills was interesting. In terms of this match-up, I see a lot of success in Aaron’s future.
Marcus Mariota ATL vs. CLE(24th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$26)
I couldn’t believe it either! Marcus has a higher price tag than Stafford and Russ! I was going to say the proof is in the pudding, but these websites assign prices based on performances and matchups. Mariota has a rushing touchdown in two of the first three games this year. I am going to say he finds the endzone, again, on the ground at home on Sunday.
Russell Wilson DEN @ LV(28th)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$6,700)(Y!-$30)
Holy smokes. Have you seen that new Russ Subway commercial? Cringe city! I am also certain they let the camera roll as Wilson talked. Subway must’ve said, “Just wing it, Russ!” and after the first minute or two everyone was uncomfortable, and they still posted the clip. Was about being dangerous and eating a spicy sub. Vegas is in a bad way right now while the Bronco’s defense is surging. That’s enough for me to take a shot with Russ. Will probably try the new sub too, to be honest.
Jacoby Brissett CLE @ ATL(21st)(FD-$6,800)(DK-$5,500)(Y!-$20)
Given my propensity for cheap value plays and the games people throw away, I love this game from a DFS perspective! How can you not? I love it so much that I may skip right to the single-game portion of things, just for this one! After the first week of the year against Carolina, Jacoby has had two solid games. Given the fact that the Falcons are not good, and their DST is giving up 27 points a game Brissett isn’t a bad move.
Matt Ryan IND vs. TEN(27th)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$22)
The Matt Ryan era in Indy hasn’t started like we had all hoped but of course, out of nowhere, they beat the Chiefs last week. The Titans DST is quite soft at this moment, take advantage while we can.
Geno Smith SEA @ DET(30th)(FD-$6,600)(DK-$5,400)(Y!-$24)
Without a doubt, Geno is probably my favorite QB player this week. Detroit’s secondary, aside from Jeff Okuda, is non-existent. If the Lions follow the SOL guidebook, then look for DK Metcalf to be locked down tight but Lockett and the tight-ends to have a day. Geno, dare I say, is a must-start in Week 4!
Mitch Trubisky PIT vs. NYJ(22nd)(FD-$6,500)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$20)
Just when I think I can’t get any lower I mention a play like Mitch. As the week progresses watch how many other folks mention Mitch. Based on the opposing team, alone, he is in play. Yet, if Week 4 follows Week 3 then we could see a New York Jet’s blowout. Who knows, let’s follow the lack of defense and dirt-cheap price tag!
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Nick Chubb CLE @ ATL(6th)(FD-$9,200)(DK-$7,900)(Y!-$30)
For the first time this NFL season, we have a new top RB dog in salary on FanDuel. While DraftKings remains the same with JT in their top-priced spot. Believe it or not, CMC is the most expensive back on Yahoo. Seems about right given the weirdness of Week 3.
Bottom of the Barrel has always been about those low-cost and low-owned players. As you scroll through the top end of these running backs you will notice several are more expensive than normal. Just speaks volumes about the state of the position. However, in my B&B notes, I could not stop writing players down. After I was done the amount of RBs mentioned seemed ridiculous. Be on the lookout for my Week 4 B&B notes. A lot of cutting room floor-type stuff.
Melvin Gordon III DEN @ LV(26th)(FD-$6,500)(DK-$5,800)(Y!-$16)
If we’ve learned anything from playing fantasy football it’s to not overreact, right? Javonte, Javonte, and Javonte all spring and summer yet, situationally, last week the Broncos leaned on MG3! We knew it was going to be this way but mapping it out was a risky thing. No one wanted to touch Gordon so people hastily just pumped up Javonte Williams. In DFS formats we get to pick and choose. Choose MG3 on Sunday against a reeling Raiders team. Almost certain this one will be more exciting than Sunday Night was.
Ezekiel Elliot DAL vs. WSH(19th)(FD-$6,400)(DK-$6,100)(Y!-$24)
Sometimes this sports betting, daily fantasy, and seasonal fantasy sports are easy! Case in point Zeke and Pollard can coexist! On Monday night both looked dang good. In another divisional game, with Cooper Rush at QB, expect a heavy dose of Zeke and Tony.
Breece Hall NYJ @ PIT(28th)(FD-$6,300)(DK-$5,400)(Y!-$17)
Hall was busy Sunday in the passing game. That gives me promise heading into Week 4 against the Steelers. As you can see PIT is 28th against running backs but they are also a weak 26th against opposing wide receivers. Looks as if we also get the season debut of Zach Wilson!
Damien Harris NE @ GB(11th)(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,300)(Y!-$15)
Without Mac Jones, this game screams pound the rock and run the ball. Brian Hoyer starting in Green Bay is far from ideal. The entire world knows this, and so does Bill. I have no issue using both Harris/Stevenson in tandem on Sunday.
Tony Pollard DAL vs. WSH(19th)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$6,000)(Y!-$20)
Winner! First same price tag guy of the slate. Not half bad after his Monday Night Football showing! A weird thing just hit me. The idea of two tandem stacks from the same team! Zeke and Pollard is one and reads on for the second one!
Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ GB(11th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,200)(Y!-$20)
Stevenson took on a bigger role in Week 3 and don’t expect it to stop anytime soon. Rhamondre is my biggest, not so under the radar, start in Week 4. Several factors include the idea of a veteran QB, in a tough spot, a running back thriving, and coming up in the passing game. Expect double digits carries with a handful of targets.
J.K. Dobbins BAL @ BUF(5th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,300)(Y!-$15)
This isn’t like me. Look at the match-up, in Buffalo, not good on paper but the excitement I feel for JK is why. The first game back, in Week 3, after a nasty knee injury was nice! Dobbins played 43% of the offensive snaps and carried the ball 7 times for 23 yards. A glum 3.29 YPC but I get the idea of slowly getting him back into game action. Regardless of DvP and Buffalo’s defense, this Ravens team has arguably the best, statistically speaking, quarterback on the planet. That should help his cause.
Michael Carter NYJ @ PIT(28th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,200)(Y!-$16)
We are really on a roll with this tandem stack’s idea! Every week as I sit down to write this article rarely do I have a plan. Few ideas here and there but no real outline. After years of playing daily fantasy sports, successes, and failures I have become comfortable with winging it or trusting my gut. Probably not the best thing to say out loud but it is the truth. Of the several RB, combos mentioned the New York Jets are my favorite just purely based on the opposing defense.
J.D. McKissic WSH @ DAL(14th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$12)
When it comes to DFS and all the football players on earth I am almost certain McKissic has been mentioned most in my work. Rightfully so given his continued ample work in the passing game. Something good is going on with the Eagles right now so there is no blame to place and we look ahead to this week!
Kenneth Walker III SEA @ DET(32nd)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,800)(Y!-$13)
We all know where he played, he played college ball, at Michigan State, but I had to double-check where he was born and raised. Thought I could get away with, “Coming back home as a rookie narrative.” Not the case here Walker III seeing how he was born and raised in Arlington, Tennessee. Regardless, much like JK above, was good to see him on the field. Expect a larger workload from Kenny, in Detroit, this week.
Craig Reynolds DET vs. SEA(24th)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$10)
When I said juiciness at the beginning of the article Craig Reynolds is what I meant. If we were in person, I bet I could convince you of this. However, it is just a simple process of elimination if the Lions give D’Andre Swift the next few weeks off leading up to, and after, their week 6 bye. I mean, Jamaal Williams can shoulder the load for now as Goff has been more than suitable at quarterback too. Kick the tires on Reynolds as this kid is given a chance in Week 4.
Sony Michel LAC @ HOU(31st)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,200)(Y!-$10)
What the heck is going on with the Chargers? Even before Herbert hurt his ribs what is coach Staley doing with Ekeler? Correct, no idea but given the match-up here in Houston we’d be fools to not toss Sony in a few GPP entries. Six or seven carries are on the table but what if he finds the endzone, several times?
Kenny Gainwell PHI vs. JAX(13th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$12)
Come to find out the Philadelphia Eagles are flying high. Also, the Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t as bad as we thought, for now. Who would’ve thought over the summer that the Eagles hosting the Jaguars in Week 4 would be the highlight of it all? The presumed highlight of it all.
Jaylen Warren PIT vs. NYJ(25th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$10)
The Steelers have always been a one-running back type of team. Yet, Pittsburgh has worked Jaylen into some real-life game action! He is a complete dart throw but the idea of 5 to 6 total touches against the Jets is what I am after!
Before we continue, I have one question for you…
Are you ready to dominate?
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Stefon Diggs BUF @ BAL(32nd)(FD-$8,700)(DK-$8,400)(Y!-$34)
I know what you’re going to say, Cooper Kupp’s (FD-$9,400)(DK-$9,900)(Y!-$38) price tag is more but he and the Rams play on Monday Night Football! That puts Stefon Diggs on top for the Main slate on Sunday! Diggs caught 7 passes on 11 targets but did split early for cramping. They were in South Florida. Bills vs. Ravens over/under is currently at 51.5 and the DvP match-up is as good as it gets
Much like the running backs mentioned here in Bottom of the Barrel Week 4, I would like to focus on the cheapest of plays. Several receivers to love in the 6,000-dollar range. However, a few players have set themselves apart while there are some absolute gems to be plucked from the $5,000 range! Let’s dig in, shall we?
Drake London ATL vs. CLE(11th)(FD-$6,300)(DK-$6,100)(Y!-$21)
Looks as though the Falcons have themselves a new red zone monster in rookie wide-out Drake London! With 25 total targets in the first three weeks and some simple math, we’re looking at 8.333333 targets a game. In addition, Brown’s secondary is giving up the ninth most points, per game, to wide receivers. Juicy!
Curtis Samuel WSH @ DAL(17th)(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,700)(Y!-$19)
We all love a feel-good story and Curtis is just that! Curtis has become a ten-target game-type weapon, with three games, and thirty targets. Do I expect that to continue? Heck yes! One way or another the Commanders seem over the moon about getting Samuel targets and touches.
Garrett Wilson NYJ @ PIT(26th)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,400)(Y!-$21)
I almost called Curtis above a “target monster.” Then I came across fellow rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson. In three games he has seen 32 total targets. However, in the past two games 24 total targets! With Wilson back at QB, what can we expect? Another 8+ targets, easily!
Romeo Doubs GB vs. NE(6th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$15)
“Oh, look at Chris taking a risk and going out on a limb for a guy the week right after he has a breakout.” I uncharacteristically sent out a tweet about Aaron Rodgers last Sunday and these odd God-like complex folks have placed on him. Normally, I try and avoid anything religious and political, but it was a moment that Twitter was made for. What I am getting at is the bump placed on a guy if he is trusted and linked to Aaron Rodgers. Which, if I may say, is a real thing. The match-up with New England is tough but Romeo has been targeted around 23% of his routes this season, the highest percentage among the Packer’s regular receivers.
Isaiah McKenzie BUF @ BAL(32nd)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$17)
The ole piece of the pie or the whole damn thing is ideal here. Fun fact, Bills QB Josh Allen connected with 11 different pass catchers last week as he threw for 400 total yards. Every person with Buffalo Bills jersey on is in play this week in Baltimore.
Zay Jones JAX @ PHI(20th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,200)(Y!-$14)
Now we are talking! Remember when the Jaguars went out and spent a ton of cash on basically a bunch of WR2s and threes? Who is laughing now? Kirk has been outstanding and now, two of three weeks so has Zay! In seasonal formats folks may hold off or say, “not yet” or, “give it time” but we don’t have that luxury in DFS formats. Like John Cena has always said, “Your time is up my time is now. You can’t see me my time is now!”
Joshua Palmer LAC @ HOU(15th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$17)
There is always a good news/bad news type of thing when it comes to DFS. On one hand, Keenan Allen is slated to return in Week 4. Thus, relegating Josh back to the team’s WR3. Unfortunately, Jalen Guyton is on the IR after hurting his knee last week so there is this weird purgatory, I find Palmer stuck in. The cheaper price tag makes it easier.
Treylon Burks TEN @ IND(12th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$13)
The talent and cost here don’t add up. In seasonal formats, people are jumping ship but in DFS formats he’s worth a look if you’re in a pinch.
Devin Duvernay BAL vs. BUF(10th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,100)(Y!-$16)
If you were blown away by my Romeo Doubs blurb wait until you get a load of Devin Duvernay spot! Duvernay has been targeted 8 times and caught all 8 of them. He has also caught 3 touchdowns. So, on a per-catch basis, so far, Devin’s likelihood of receiving a touchdown is like 24% per target.
Chase Claypool PIT vs. NYJ(24th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$12)
Big-play Clay isn’t a thing right now given Mitch Trubisky’s lack of accuracy. Do you want to be left in the dust if the Steelers put in Kenny Pickett after halftime and Chase scores twice?
Jahan Dotson WSH @ DAL(17th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,300)(Y!-$16)
Can you believe that Carson Wentz is currently, kind of, supporting three wide receivers?
Noah Brown DAL vs. WSH(31st)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$15)
If Michael Gallup is back in Week 4, which all signs point to, the thrill with Noah is gone. Just keep an eye out on Gallup’s status.
Richie James Jr. NYG vs. CHI(13th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$12)
Such a bummer about Sterling Shepard’s knee injury. However, we need to make other plans. The Bears aren’t exactly a cake match-up, but targets should be there.
Elijah Moore NYJ @ PIT(26th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,800)(Y!-$17)
I just realized that in this article I have mentioned half of the Jet’s offensive roster. Do you know what they say about playing the odds? Promise I will not share any screenshots if any of them score a touchdown in Week 4.
Greg Dortch ARZ @ CAR(9th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$12)
Obligatory, “OMG Greg Dortch has been awesome in the slot this year!” Jokes aside, I would agree with you! Twenty-three total targets in three games and he has caught 20 of them! Rondale Moore who?
Mark Andrews BAL vs. BUF(FD-$8,400)(DK-$7,100)(Y!-$28)
Guess what? It is still cool to punt the tight end position! The drop-off, in price, at the tight end spot this week is shocking! From Mark to Darren Waller(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$23). Let me do the work and comb through depth charts for you. Here are my cheaper options at the tight-end spot in Week 4
David Njoku CLE @ ATL(31st)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$3,700)(Y!-$14)
Do you remember when things were an absolute mess for the Cleveland Browns this summer? Again, jokes aside, for a short time David Njoku pressed the issue about being traded but the Browns finally flipped Baker and paid David. Then, in Week 3, Njoku had nine receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown! Do you see the DvP with the Falcons this weekend?
Tyler Conklin NYJ @ PIT(26th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$3,600)(Y!-$14)
The tight end position is a very delicate thing as of late. You’re better off with literally throwing metal tip darts at a balloon wall.
T.J. Hockenson DET vs. SEA(22nd)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,100)(Y!-$18)
Was nice to see T.J. Hock rebound in Week 3 with Jared Goff. All that extra rep stuff paid off! Currently, Detroit sports radio is all a buzz about the idea you must beat bad teams when you’re playing at home. How much do you think Minnesota radio talked about that last week? Just a simple matter of perspective.
Robert Tonyan GB vs. NE(29th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$3,500)(Y!-$14)
Last week the Patriots got smashed by Ravens tight ends. By Ravens tight ends I mean one, Mark Andrews. He was targeted 13 times! Caught 8 of those for 89 yards and two touchdowns. How weird would it be if Tonyan had an identical stat-line? Would make for one cool tweet!
Albert Okwuegbunam DEN @ LV(27th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$3,300)(Y!-$10)
Let’s keep it simple here, I do believe the Broncos score more than 11 points in Las Vegas on Sunday. Any week now Russ Wilson and this offense is going to take off. What if Subway and the Broncos planned it out this way the entire time? Soon as that weird commercial drops we give Denver the green light to score and go on a run? Crazier things have happened.
Noah Fant SEA @ DET(23rd)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,100)(Y!-$10)
If we can tandem stack running backs, why can’t we do it with tight ends? The Lions have shown no issue with scoring points. Also, no issue with letting other teams score points.
Daniel Bellinger NYG vs. CHI(11th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$2,800)(Y!-$10)
I liked the idea of Bellinger in Monday Night Football single-game DFS formats. If he can stay in that same 4-5 targets a game range, then his tag on DraftKings is a flipping steal. On FanDuel, he becomes a touchdown or bust type play.
Will Dissley SEA @ DET(23rd)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,200)(Y!-$11)
Almost copy and pasted what I wrote here for Noah Fant. The last thing I want to do is challenge your reading comprehension on the last blurb of the article.
That it is! Bottom of the Barrel for Week 4 of the NFL season!
Did I miss a guy? Did I miss your favorite team stack? Let me know!
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