The American Express DFS Course Preview for DraftKings & FanDuel for 01/21
We finally finish the short Hawaii PGA swing and make our way to California for The American Express DFS Course Preview for DraftKings and FanDuel. We enter the week with a strong field, again (thank god). This year’s setup is slightly different, only two courses will be used, and amateurs will not play alongside the pros. Anyway, let’s get started with The American Express DFS Course Preview for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week we will be playing in two separate courses. One will be at The Stadium Course, and the other 18 holes will be played at Nicklaus Tournament Course, in which The Stadium Course will become the primary course after Friday’s cut.
Both courses are similar in length, and we will see a ton of birdies (birdie fest, yay!). Nicklaus Course features ten par 4’s in which seven range from 400-450 yards. The easiest holes are par 5’s, which have a birdie rate of 46-58%. And the most challenging holes are holes 6, 17, and 18. All three holes have a bogey rate of 13-15% (not much).
On the other hand, The Stadium Course has three of the four Par 5’s play to the same 500-550 yardage as the Nicklaus course and have relatively the same birdie rate. We’ll be looking at a birdie rate of 30-44%. In contrast, the most challenging holes will be 6, 13, and 15. All three holes have a bogey rate of 17-22%.
The fairways at Nicklaus are easy to hit as it also comes with wide fairways. While the fairways at The Stadium Course are narrow, think Pete Dye. A golfer must be careful here as there are a few bunkers, and they’ll also need to avoid water. Lastly, the greens here are made up of Bermuda grass and should play slow.
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Patrick Cantlay ($11,100) – With the Rahm withdrawal, Cantlay becomes the most expensive golfer on the slate. And although we usually wouldn’t want to pay this price for Cantlay, it’s not a hard pill to swallow. Here are a few things to note: Cantlay only missed the cut once in the 2020 season. Over the last five events, Cantlay has gained 3.8 strokes T2G, 1.4 OTT, and 2.1 ARG. In a bigger sample size – over the previous 20 events, Cantlay has gained 3.8 (again) strokes T2G, 1.3 OTT, 1.4 on APP, and 1.1 ARG. Cantlay is consistent, and that’s what we want in cash. Lastly, on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – he had a 9th place finish in 2019.
- Rusell Henley ($9,000) – If you read my write-up last week, you would know I was leaning heavily on Henley, and the reason I bring him up it’s the same reason I brought him up last week. Last week at Sony his course history was full of miss cuts, this week we see the same thing. Henley is coming to a course with bad course history. The difference is that this is a NEW Henley. In the last 10 events, Henley has had four top 10 finishes, one top 15 finish, and four top 30 finishes.
- Patrick Reed ($10,200) – If you can’t get to Cantlay, I very much like this pivot. On my models, Reed is ranked 4th overall and over on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – In the last ten events, Reed has gained 2.1 strokes T2G, 1.3 OTT, 0.3 on APP, and 0.5 ARG.
- Sam Burns ($8,300) – It’s been a while since we’ve heard of Burns! Feels good to have him back. Before the break, Burns finished 7th at the Houston Open, and he was playing spectacularly. He gained three strokes T2G, 3.1 OTT, and one stroke on APP in the last five events. Also, he gains 0.65 strokes on Bermuda grass.
Dark Horse Play
- Brendan Steele ($7,300) – I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned Brendan in any of my articles. But I very much like how he performed last week at Sony. He ended up gaining 5.2 strokes T2G, 3.1 OTT, one on APP, and 1.3 ARG. Also, on the Study Hub, he has a great history here. In the last ten years, he’s played here; he’s only missed the cut twice. His best finish was 2nd, followed by 6th place. Lastly, he gains 1.52 total strokes.
Thanks for reading, fam catch you on Discord,