Stacking in DFS is a must in almost every sport so in this edition of the DraftKings Milly Maker report I’ll go over some stacking trends from the last couple of years. I’ve previously covered the games to target and how to shrink your quarterback pool. Stacking is what ties everything together for us.
If you’re new to daily fantasy and you keep hearing or seeing “stacking” but don’t quite know what it means, that’s ok. It’s a really easy concept and almost everyone says “Ahhhh” or “Of course” after it sinks in.
With stacking, we’re trying to chain together positive events by using players that have a scoring correlation. In football that’s a quarterback and a pass catcher. In baseball, it would be something like the 1-3-4-5-6 hitters so guys get on base and runs get driven in and you’re scoring for both actions.
The chance of building points and moving up the leaderboard with stacking is better than trying to nail the absolute best nine players on the slate. When I get into the numbers below, you’ll see there were no “naked QBs” (Playing a quarterback without a player from the same team). The closest we came is someone using Lamar Jackson and the Ravens defense to take down a tournament.
Let’s get to the numbers!
In 2018 players used 14 different stack types to win a million bucks. There’s a few ugly builds in here so congrats to those folks for winning but sheesh.
The numbers are a little noisy but you can see what we all should know: You want to at least stack a quarterback and a pass catcher from the same team. Eleven out of the 14 winning lineups paired a QB and at least one receiver.
Six out of the 14 lineups paired the quarterback with a player from the opposing team. As evidence has shown, “Running it back” with an opponent is the next step in correlation.
Right away you’ll notice that fewer stack types were used in 2019 where just 10 different stacks took home the top prize. I think some of that can be attributed to DFS players getting sharper as a whole.
The simple QB+WR stack held the top spot in 2018 and 2019. This leads me to believe that blowouts or games with big spreads aren’t bad, but you probably want to avoid running it back with a player from the underdog in that situation. For instance, if a team wins 34-14 the only value in using an opponent is if that player scored both touchdowns for the loser. Otherwise, you’re going to have an “only if” lineup where you’re saying “I would’ve won big ONLY IF I didn’t use a guy that put up nine points in a blowout loss.”
I mentioned DFS players getting sharper so here’s what I meant by that. In 2018 only six out of 17 Milly winning lineups used at least one opposing player. In 2019 the number jumped to 10 out of 17 weeks. The correlation is real and people AT THE TOP are picking up on that.
Three weeks into the 2020 season the QB+2 WR+OPP WR stack has won the Milly Maker three times. Donuts talked about bigger stacks this week on the Twitch stream and the evidence is backing that up. Yes, it’s a small sample size but the regular season is only 17 weeks so all of the samples are relatively small.
Taking a look at 2018 and 2019 combined the QB+WR stack has taken home seven out of 34 weeks (21%). That’s impressive. We also see that 19 different stack types won over the 34 different contests but keep in mind only 10 different stack types won in 2019.
If we combine 2018, 2019, and 2020 we see the QB+2 WR+OPP WR stack go from two wins to five wins because of the three wins this season. That would account for 14% of the contests in that timeframe.
The main takeaway isn’t groundbreaking. You have to use a QB and a pass catcher from the same team at a minimum. If you’re looking for greater correlation add another pass catcher and a receiver from the opposing team.
No matter what I present here and what we think we “learn” it’s important to remember that nothing is forever in DFS. What works this season might not work next season. Hell, things can change from week to week. What I’m trying to do with this series is to point out a few trends for us to keep our eyes on and HOPEFULLY use to our advantage.
Before I wrap this up I’ll leave you with another example of how much things change in DFS.
Here are the most used stack types from the Week 2 Milly Maker in 2018:
Here are the most used stack types from the Week 2 Milly Maker in 2019:
Here are the most used stack types from the Week 2 Milly Maker in 2020:
The stacks including an opponent increase year after year. And even with that happening those types of lineups still make up a small percentage of the total lineups. Advantage us. Looking forward to seeing you all in the #Winners channel in the Team Rise or Fall Discord.
See you in the green,