Welcome to the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report for the first half of the 2020 season. You’ll find links to every report in the series at the bottom of this post. What I want to do with this entry is to show what we’ve found through researching the regular season Milly Makers from 2018 and 2019 and how the information applies to the 2020 season.
Hopefully, at least one person finds the info helpful and they wind up in our winners section!
I’ve mentioned this in nearly every Milly Maker report, Donuts has mentioned it during his Twitch stream, and I’ll mention it again. Over 34 slates of Milly Makers, we found that the 1st place quarterback came from a game in the top five for implied totals on the slate.
In the first eight weeks of the 2020 season, SEVEN quarterbacks have come from games in the top five for implied totals on the slate. I want to add that this doesn’t mean you should blindly play any quarterback in the top five. It’s still important to consider gameflow and scoring options. For instance, in Week 8 the Chiefs-Jets game was in the top five for implied totals with a number of 49. That didn’t mean it was a good spot to use the NYJ quarterback because, outside of Showdowns, there’s no reason to use a Jets quarterback this season. More on this as we move forward.
Play good players against bad players/teams. That’s it. That’s the whole section.
Ok so maybe that’s a major oversimplification of the point but it is kind of true. We’re trying to find players that are in the best spots while working within our budget constraints.
In 2018, 13 different defenses were on the opposing side of the first place winning quarterback. In 2019, there were 11 different defenses that allowed the Milly winning QB.
Here are the defenses that were opposite the Milly winning quarterback the first eight weeks of the season:
And here are the quarterbacks that feasted on these defenses:
Let’s have a moment of silence for the fantasy goodness that was Dak Prescott… That was awesome while it lasted.
Fun fact: 63 different quarterbacks have stepped on the game field this season. SIXTY-THREE!! Yes, some were only kneel-downs or a run so if we subtract those guys we’re left with 60 quarterbacks that have attempted a pass this season. That’s pretty nuts. And out of those 60 quarterbacks, only five won a Milly Maker through the first eight weeks of the season. In my opinion, we tend to waste a lot of lineups on quarterbacks that aren’t going to pay off for us.
Once again: Analyzing 34 slates over 2018 and 2019 showed there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker in the 2018 NFL regular season and 14 different quarterbacks in the 2019 regular season. Since the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games aren’t on the main slate there’s a good chance a couple of the top QBs won’t be available. That’s a good thing because it automatically helps you trim down your QB pool.
This is the most interesting section of the Milly Maker report for me.
In 2018, there were 14 different stack types that took down a Milly Maker. In 2019, there were 10 different stack types that took down a Milly Maker. It looks like everybody did a lot of homework between the 2019 and 2020 seasons because in 2020 we’ve only had four different stack types take down a Milly and two of the stack types are basically the same.
I say the top two stack types are the same because it involves stacking a quarterback with two pass-catching options and an opposing wide receiver. That would give us three different stack types over the first eight weeks and would mean we’d need eight different stack types the rest of the season to keep us on pace with 2018 and 2019. I don’t see that happening.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone at all: The quarterbacks that win the Milly Maker score a lot of points. I’ll pause for you to gather yourselves because I’m sure I’ve knocked you out of your seats.
Here’s the average stat line for a Milly Maker winning quarterback in 34 slates from 2018 and 2019:
Here’s the average stat line for a Milly Maker winning quarterback through eight weeks of 2020:
Through eight games, quarterbacks are averaging seven more pass attempts per game than the 2018-19 average. We’re heading to colder, less friendly playing conditions so we’ll see if that changes any. It could also be a product of where the NFL is headed this decade, or maybe this is just a weird pandemic season that will be an outlier when we have more information.
No matter what your takeaway is, we still arrive at the same place: Quarterbacks that throw the ball a lot and preferably a guy that throws the ball a lot without turning it over. Through eight weeks, the fewest amount of pass attempts stands at 40 (Russell Wilson Week 3 and Matt Ryan Week 6). Only three quarterbacks threw interceptions and Russell Wilson’s three picks in Week 7 is the only multiple interception Milly Maker winning performance.
Here’s the ownership breakdown from the 2018 season:
Here’s the ownership breakdown from the 2019 season:
Here’s the combined ownership breakdown from 2018 and 2019:
Here’s the ownership breakdown from the first half of the 2020 season:
In the ownership post I had four takeaways from the 2018 and 2019 seasons:
*The actual own% is less than 100% 8 out of 34 times (23.5%)
*The actual own% is more than 130% 10 out of 34 times (29.4%)
*The projected own% is less than 100% 8 out of 17 times (47%)
*The projected own% is more than 130% 4 out of 17 times (23.5%)
In 2020, we see the projected ownership and actual ownership are below 100% three times. The projected ownership is over 130% one time (Week 7) while the actual ownership went over 130% once in Week 2.
The ownership columns show the majority of ownership falling in the 0-10% range and the 11-19% range. A couple of hints when it comes to ownership: quarterbacks, tight ends, and defenses tend to be below 10%, and stud running backs and wide receivers (Mainly running backs) can carry “high” ownership and still give you a great chance to win. The ownership of your players around them will balance out your lineup.
In the 42 regular season Milly Makers from 2018-2020, only five lineups had four or more players in the 20%+ range. It happened twice in 2018 and 2019 and once so far in 2020. So treat chalk like salt, you can sprinkle a little on your lineups but going overboard is generally a bad idea.
That’s all for the 2020 First Half Milly Maker Report. Good luck to everyone!
See you in the green,