Welcome to the Milly Maker Report for the second quarter of the 2020 NFL season. I broke down trends from the first four weeks of the season and now it’s time for weeks 5-8.
If this is your first time reading our Milly Maker Report series, what I did was analyze 34 weeks worth of Milly Makers over the 2018 and 2019 seasons to see if there were any trends we could use to our advantage. Links to the entire series can be found at the end of this post.
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The Milly Maker Report on using Vegas implied totals showed that 76% of Milly winning quarterbacks came from games within the top five highest implied totals.
Weeks 5-8 held to this trend 100%, with an asterisk and a half. Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan in weeks five and six were in games in the top five for implied totals. Russell Wilson was in the top five for game totals in Week 7, but he played in the Sunday night game which isn’t normally on the main slate. In Week 8 Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs-Jets game started outside of the top five for implied game totals but weather concerns lowered totals. Chiefs and Jets tied for fifth with the Colts-Lions game at 49 points.
As I mentioned in the First Quarter Report, there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker over 17 weeks in the 2018 NFL regular season. In 2019 the number increased to 14 different quarterbacks for over 17 weeks. The overall point is that less than half of NFL quarterbacks will actually finish 1st in a Milly Maker.
Weeks 5-8 of the 2020 NFL season follows suit as well. We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes take first place over those four weeks. Over the first eight weeks of the 2020 NFL season, we’ve seen five quarterbacks win the Milly Makers. Dak Prescott (2), Patrick Mahomes (2), Russell Wilson (2), Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan.
As far as who the quarterbacks are racking up their points against we saw Las Vegas, Minnesota, Arizona, and the NY Jets as the opposing defense to the first place finishing quarterbacks in weeks 5-8.
In 2018 13 different defenses were on the opposing side of the first place winning quarterback. In 2019 there were 11 different defenses that allowed the Milly winning QB. So far in 2020, we’ve seen seven different defenses allow a Milly winning QB: Minnesota (2), Arizona, Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas, Las Vegas, and the NY Jets.
I’ve talked about how 14 different stack types won the Milly Maker in 2018 and 10 different stack types won the Milly Maker in 2019. The first four weeks of 2020 saw the QB+2 WR+Opp WR win the Milly Maker every week. The second quarter played out a little differently.
If you count wide receivers and tight ends as “pass catchers” then QB+2 Pass Catchers+Opp WR has been the top stack six out of eight weeks. The two exceptions are Mahomes+Tyreke Hill+Travis Kelce (QB+2 Pass Catchers) in Week 5 and Russell Wilson+Tyler Lockett+Deandre Hopkins (QB+Pass Catcher+Opp WR) in Week 7.
Another staple of the Milly Maker Report series is you want quarterbacks that have a lot of pass attempts. In weeks 5-8 the Milly winning QB chucked the ball at least 40 times. In weeks 1-4 the Milly winning QB also threw the ball at least 40 times. If you’ve been rostering guys that get a limited amount of attempts per game you still have the second half of the season to STOP DOING THAT.
Here are the Milly Maker winning quarterback stats for weeks 5-8:
I said this in the 1st Quarter Report and I’ll say it here: Roster construction is more important than ownership even though people talk about ownership way more than they do roster construction. For instance, if you have a lot of low owned players in your lineup with ZERO correlation between the players you’re more than likely not going to do well. On the other hand, you can use four or five players from the most popular game on the slate and you’ll still have four or five chances to build a very unique lineup.
With that said here’s the ownership allocation for the 34 weeks of Milly Makers from 2018 and 2019.
Here are the ownership numbers from weeks 5-8 of the 2020 NFL season:
In the first half of the 2020 NFL season the projected ownership has only been higher than 130% one time, Week 7 at 137.2%. The projected ownership has been below 100% three times with 83.4% in Week 1, 94.4% in Week 3, and 73.9% in Week 6. That leaves four times that the projected ownership fell between 100% and 130%.
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See you in the green,