Thank you for joining me for another edition of the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. I use this space every week to explore strategies and trends that we can use to attack the DraftKings Milly Makers and other contests in general. You can find links to the other posts in this series at the bottom of this article.
Before I get rolling, I have to mention that the NBA season is fast approaching. If you’re not a Team Rise or Fall member, now is the time to sign up and take advantage of everything we have to offer for the NBA season. Take a look at our NBA Study Hub sample to see the wealth of info we’ll be providing on a daily basis. When you’re finished there swing by our Winners page to see the proof of our product.
On to the DraftKings Milly Maker Report!
(Weeks 11 and 12 had multiple Milly Makers. I’m using the lower cost Milly Maker for the information below. I figure most of us aren’t entering a contest with a $500 fee.)
One of the staples of the Milly Maker report has been that 76% of Milly Maker winning quarterbacks have come from teams in the top five for implied game totals on the slate. The 3rd quarter of the NFL season held to this trend. Weeks 9-11 saw the winning quarterback come from teams within the top five for implied totals on the slate.
The only quarterback not to follow the trend was Baker Mayfield with the Cleveland Browns in Week 12. For the season, 10 out of 12 Milly winning quarterbacks have come in the top five for implied game totals on the slate. That’s a healthy 83.3%!
I’m going to recycle this point because I think it’s super important: Analyzing 34 slates over 2018 and 2019 showed there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker in the 2018 NFL regular season and 14 different quarterbacks in the 2019 regular season.
Through the first half of the season, 63 different quarterbacks took at least a snap but only five different quarterbacks won the Milly Maker. The second half of the season is starting to show a little diversity. We’ve seen Drew Lock, Kyler Murray, Taysom Hill, and Baker Mayfield take first place in a Milly Maker in Weeks 9-12. None of those QBs won a Milly in the first half of the season. That brings the season total to nine different quarterbacks that have won someone a million bucks this season.
Looking at the defensive side here are the teams that allowed a Milly winning quarterback in the first half of the 2020 season:
The 3rd quarter of the 2020 NFL season saw Atlanta, Buffalo, Atlanta, and Jacksonville allow Milly Maker winners. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been playing better lately and they still showed up twice in four weeks. This also gives the Falcons the distinction of allowing the most Milly Maker winners (3) this season.
If you’ve been following the DraftKings Milly Maker report from the beginning you’ve heard parts of this report several times. That’s ok. There are also folks that are just now joining us and I have to make sure everyone is up to speed.
With that said, In 2018, there were 14 different stack types that took down a Milly Maker. In 2019, there were 10 different stack types that took down a Milly Maker. The first half of the 2020 season saw just four stack types take down a million dollars.
Here are the stacks that took down a Milly in Weeks 9-12:
It’s notable that smaller stacks came out of the box swinging in the 3rd quarter of the 2020 season. There were no four-man stacks and we even saw a naked QB take the top spot. I believe this is more a product of the quarterbacks that finished in the top spot than a late-season trend. Drew Lock, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield don’t have a lot of options that you can stack them with, and super cheap Taysom Hill didn’t need anyone else.
One thing I’ve harped on in the Milly Maker report series is that we want to target quarterbacks that throw the ball a lot. So of course the 3rd quarter of the 2020 NFL season decided to seriously buck that trend.
The first half of the 2020 season saw quarterbacks average 46 pass attempts per game. No Milly winning quarterback in the first half of 2020 attempted fewer than 40 passes. The 3rd quarter of 2020 saw three out of four quarterbacks fall below that mark. The fewest passing yards in the first half of the season was 315 from Russell Wilson in Week 3. No quarterback topped that low mark in the 3rd quarter of 2020.
The difference seems to be the rushing of the quarterbacks. You can see the 3rd quarter QBs averaged 40 rushing yards and a touchdown. The quarterbacks in the first half of the season averaged 21 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Does this trend hold up moving forward? I’d say it’s more situational than anything else. I’ll still be looking for quarterbacks that are throwing the ball a lot.
Here’s the ownership from the first half of the 2020 NFL season:
Here’s the ownership for the 3rd quarter of the 2020 NFL season:
I’ll repeat myself here as well: Roster construction is more important than ownership. If you’re targeting a bunch of low owned, low upside players, congratulations. You have a unique lineup that probably won’t cash. If a player is in a great spot and you really believe in them and everyone else does too, you should still play that person. You can find ways to get unique in other spots.
There have only been two times this season where four players with ownership over 20% were in the same lineup. Focus on avoiding the bad chalk (Do your research that leads to this conclusion) but don’t obsess over ownership for the most part.
That’s my time for now. Good luck to everyone this weekend!
See ya in Discord,