Last week I took a look at Vegas game totals and million dollar winning lineups over the 2018 and 2019 NFL seasons. I found that 76% of Milly Maker winning quarterbacks came from games within the top five for point totals for the week. Week 1 of the 2020 season held to that trend for the most part.
The highest total of the week featured Seattle at Atlanta coming in at 49.5. Two games carried a total of 48 points, two games carried a total of 47.5 points and then came Green Bay vs. Minnesota at 44.5. So the Green Bay game was technically the sixth game but in the top five due to ties. (You’ll also notice the Week 1 winner has a secondary stack which Donuts touches on here via Twitch.)
Since last week was dedicated to point totals I wanted to see if there was a point total we should be eyeing for the foundation of our lineups. In 2018 the average point total for a game with the million dollar winning quarterback was 49.38. In 2019 the total dipped to 47.02. The two year average is 48.21. Nothing too revealing there but over the two years (34 weeks worth of data) the first place QB had a game total of less than 45 just seven times. That means 79% of the time the game total was 45+. (But remember up above just last week we saw a 44.5 game total in first place.)
Next up I wondered if being home or away made a difference for the first place quarterback. The answer is NO. The first place quarterback/stack was the home team 18 times and the road team 16 times. No edge there. Moving on.
Maybe there’s some info hidden in the point spreads of the games. Let’s take a look:
A few things stand out to me right away. The favorites accounted for 26 of 34 wins BUT 2019 saw the favorites absolutely dominate. Another thing that stood out and makes complete sense is that games in the range of 0-7 points accounted for 23 of the 34 weeks I tracked. I say this makes sense because the average NFL point spread will fall between 0-7 points.
In 2018 10 different signal callers won someone a million dollars. Taking a look at the winning QBs from 2018 there are really only two names that make me say WHOOOAAA. Mitch Trubisky shipped three Millys in 2018 and Brock Osweiler snagged one. I could’ve given you a week and you never would’ve guessed that.
In 2019 14 different QBs won players a million dollars. The top spots featured guys we’d expect in Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan. The other names are a little less shocking in 2019 but seeing Teddy B. and Jimmy G. in first place lineups was a little surprising.
In both seasons less than half of the quarterbacks in the league appeared in the first place lineup. The only quarterbacks to appear multiple times in both seasons are Mahomes and Ryan. Lamar Jackson appears once in both seasons even though it seemed like he was going off every week in 2019. Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, and Jared Goff each appeared at least once in both seasons.
Let’s take a look at the teams these guys were lighting up on the way to winning someone life changing money.
In 2018 Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shipped a Milly twice and the Tampa defense allowed a Milly winning quarterback twice. So four out of 17 weeks Tampa Bay was involved one way or another.
In 2019 the Miami defense allowed nearly 25% of the Milly Maker winners. The Dolphins had a three game streak of allowing the Milly winning QB/stack midseason in 2019. Throw in Tampa Bay and that’s seven out of 17 weeks where you could have targeted a bad defense and been on the right path to first place.
I’ll be using the information I shared here to build my lineups this weekend. I’m targeting the five highest game totals of the week for my stacks. My secondary stacks will also come from the games with the highest totals.
For point spreads I’m giving more shares to QBs/Stacks from games that fall in the 0-7 point range and I’m giving a bump in shares to the favorites.
We’re only a week into the season so we can’t really say who has the worst defense in the league but pay attention to that moving forward. I’m definitely going to want to target the teams that can’t stop anyone. Amazing take right?
As always good luck to everyone this weekend. I hope to see you all tied for 2nd behind me. If that’s not the case then I hope somebody from the Team Rise or Fall family is able to have a life changing weekend. Let’s get it.
See you in the green,