Welcome to another edition of the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker report. This is a series where we look at trends and strategies over the last couple of years to see what we can learn and apply. If this is your first time checking out the Milly Maker Report you can find the previous post at the bottom of this article.
**EDITOR NOTE** All information within this article was found via FantasyCruncher.com Lineup Study!
This week, we’ll be taking a look at two Milly Makers from NFL Week 11. There was a normal $20 Milly Maker with 205,882 entries, and there was a $500 Milly Maker with 5,000 entries. The $500 entry fee is the group I’ll call the Pros and the $20 entry group are the Joes.
Before I move forward I want to remind everyone that the NBA season we’ll be here in less than a month. If you’re not a Team Rise or Fall member already (What are you waiting for??) you can check out our NBA Study Hub Sample to get an idea of the data we provide on a daily basis during the NBA season.
Ok, let’s get to it!
I mentioned above that the Joe’s contest had 205,882 entries while the Pro’s contest had 5,000 entries. If I have to swim from point A to point B through shark-infested waters then 205,881 other people going with me is fine. If I’m trying to win a million bucks I want as little competition as possible.
The $500 entry fee eliminates the average DFS player right from the jump. There’s no way I’m personally entering a $500 entry fee contest because of what it would mean to my bankroll. If you’re a big-time player like ChipotleAddict (The winner of the $500 contest), it’s a no-brainer.
There are quite obvious differences in approach at the two price points. These differences can be seen at lower levels as well. This is why Donuts preaches contest selection. It’s hard enough to take down a tournament as it is. The more entries that are in the contest only reduces the likelihood of your success.
The $20 Milly Maker had five lineups in the top 20 that didn’t stack a quarterback and one of his wide receivers. The $500 contest had three lineups in the top 20 that didn’t stack a quarterback with one of his wide receivers.
I’m a big believer in stacking and having lineups that correlate and I’m not going to change right now, but playing Taysom Hill without a teammate was successful this past weekend.
Here’s the winning lineup in the $20 contest:
When you look at it I know you’re thinking “Well, hell. I COULD’VE done that.” Every play there was on the radar. There’s some secondary correlation with the Minnesota Vikings players and a Dallas Cowboys player, and there’s some negative correlation with Dallas Goedert playing against the Cleveland Browns defense. I wouldn’t have used Goedert against the Browns defense so I guess no Milly for me.
Here’s the winning lineup in the $500 contest:
Here, we have Deshaun Watson stacked with Brandin Cooks, and once again there’s a Dallas-Minnesota stack. What stands out the most is that the $20 entry beat the $500 entry by 18.96 points. In fact, ChipotleAddict’s million-dollar lineup would’ve only been good for 33rd place and $3,500 in the $20 contest.
If you’ve ever binked a low stakes tournament, I know you’ve tortured yourself by checking how you would’ve done at the highest stakes. A lot of times, you’ll find you would’ve won or at least finished near the top. The reason for this is pretty basic: It’s a lot easier to take chances on lineups if you have $5 in play instead of $50. And the higher the stakes go the less likely you’ll be to take huge chances.
Here are the top 20 finishers from the Joes and the Pros. Take a look at the ownership column from both groups.
The lower stakes contest features more lineups below 100% ownership in the top 20 than the higher stakes. Again, evidence that people take more chances at the lower stakes. It also stands out that some of the lower owned plays were solid plays but less recognized at the lower stakes.
For instance, Ezekiel Elliot came in at 8.1% ownership in the $20 Milly but, he carried 10.8% ownership in the $500 Milly. On the flipside, Taysom Hill was 17.7% owned in the $20 Milly while only coming in at 15.5% in the $500 contest.
It’s only one slate so the sample size isn’t great but, it looks like the high-stakes players had a more concentrated running back ownership but ownership at the wide receivers was basically the same as the lower stakes. Do what you can with that.
That’s all for me for now.
Good luck to everyone this weekend. Let’s get this money!
See ya in Discord,