So far in our chase to take down the DraftKings Milly Maker I’ve covered targeting the games with the five highest point totals on the slate, picking on bad defenses, and stack types. Since the quarterback position is the key to our lineup building I wanted to do some digging into the past Milly winning QBs.
Ten different quarterbacks won the 17 Milly Makers in 2018, and 14 different quarterbacks won the 17 Milly Makers in 2019. In the two seasons combined 18 different quarterbacks won first place.
Why would we try to roster every quarterback when less than half won Milly Makers in 2018 and 2019 and barely over half won the last two seasons combined? We absolutely shouldn’t.
These are my quarterback tiers for the 2020 season (So far):
Always use: Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray
Mostly use: Dak Prescott, Cam Newton
Sometimes use: Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff
That’s 11 quarterbacks and if you sprinkle in some “maybes but probably nots” like Drew Brees (Dusty), Phillip Rivers (Dusty), Kirk Cousins (You never know), Carson Wentz (Looks bad), Teddy Bridgewater (Shrug emoji), Baker Mayfield (YOLO) (Four of these guys have won Millys in the last 2 years Brees-Wentz-Bridgewater-Mayfield) now I’m up to 17 quarterbacks.
The numbers I use throughout the series are from Milly Makers in the 17 regular season weeks in 2018 and 2019.
This is the average stat line for the quarterbacks from the first place lineups over 34 weeks: After seeing the averages I think a really easy place to start with QB selection is “Can this guy score 30 DK points?” I understand every quarterback could score 30 but it’s unrealistic for a lot of QBs. If Brett Rypien or Dwayne Haskins goes ham congratulations to them but they won’t be in my lineups.
I’m stating the obvious but I want quarterbacks with high upside AND a high upside for a high upside. I want a lot of upside. So when you’re making your QB pool be honest with yourself and ditch the FOMO… “Can this guy score 30 DK points?”
*The QB scored less than 30 fantasy points 10 out of 34 times (29.4%)
*The QB scored less than 25 fantasy points five out of 34 times (14.7%)
*The QB scored 35 or more fantasy points 11 out of 34 times (32.3%)
*The QB scored 40 or more fantasy points seven out of 34 times (20.5%)
*The QB attempted less than 30 passes five out of 34 times (14.7%)
*The QB attempted 40 or more passes 15 out of 34 times (44.1%)
*The QB attempted 50 or more passes six out of 34 times (17.6%)
*The QB attempted four or fewer rushes 24 out of 34 times (70.5%)
*The QB attempted five or more rushes 10 out of 34 times (29.4%)
*The QB threw 3 interceptions one out of 34 times (2.9%)
*The QB threw 2 interceptions six out of 34 times (17.6%)
*The QB threw 1 interception six out of 34 times (17.6%)
*The QB threw 0 interceptions 21 out of 34 times (61.8%)
Again, some of this is pretty obvious but we want to use quarterbacks that are slinging the football. More throws lead to more opportunities for yards and touchdowns.
Interceptions are kind of random and with that said we want to avoid QBs that are turnover prone. Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick winning Milly Makers are exceptions to the rule and shouldn’t be used as an excuse to roster quarterbacks that constantly give away the ball.
The stats that surprised me the most involved rushing. Only eight out of 34 Milly Maker winning quarterbacks (23.5%) scored a rushing touchdown and only one QB scored two rushing touchdowns. Using high upside mobile quarterbacks is fine (Allen, Murray, Jackson, Trubisky (RIP)). I wouldn’t want to use a guy just because he can run.
The eight quarterbacks that had a rushing touchdown still threw for an average of 2.75 touchdowns which is .63 less than the 3.38 average touchdown passes shown earlier. Fantasy points from a quarterback rushing are the gravy on top of a solid lineup. It enhances what should already be a solid build.
See you in the green,
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