The 2020 NFL season is actually here so I’ve decided to take a look at the DraftKings Milly Maker and previous seasons. There were times when pro football seemed like a long shot, and if you’re like me it took until kickoff on Thursday night for me to let my guard down. Now that we know we’re getting football it’s time to figure out how we can be profitable this year. Which of course means how can we win a life-changing million-dollar prize playing DFS. I took a look at the last two years of DraftKings Milly Makers and Las Vegas lines to see if anything stood out. Here are my findings.
I want to preface what I’ll present with A) I know it’s a small sample size and B) Nothing is forever. Both are true so it’s fine if your research leads you to a quarterback that contradicts what I write here. What I’m hoping to do is to help trim down your player pool and where to start. Looking back at 34 weeks worth of Milly Makers (regular season only) a quarterback from the top five in-game totals took first place 26 out of 34 weeks (76.5%). If you’re looking to cut the fat from your QB pool that’s a very easy place to start. I can hear some people now “Everybody is gonna use players from games with high totals. I don’t want to hold hands at the top with a 1000 people.” Stop saying that. It’s nonsense.
There were no ties for first in any of the 34 weeks that I went through. If that’s not enough for you, a quarterback from the game with the highest total on the slate finished first just five of the 34 weeks (14.7%). Quarterbacks with game totals outside of the top five finished first eight times (23.5%). So if you’re really worried about duplicate lineups fade QBs/Stacks from the game with the highest total of the week and try to identify a player or two that you think is flying under the radar.
Let’s take a glance at the eight QBs/Stacks that won a million dollars but weren’t in the top five for game totals that particular week.
Week 6 – 2018
If Brock Osweiler is in the winning lineup I know I’m not winning that week.
Week 10 – 2018
And if I have to run a Bears onslaught then I’m probably not winning that week either. I wonder what led “Beardown247” to run a lineup like that?
Week 12 – 2018
Quarterback with their defense is definitely unique.
Week 14 – 2018
Week 15 – 2018
Again we see a QB with their defense.
Week 1 – 2019
The Ravens jumped on Miami and crushed them 59-10. A result that caught a lot of people by surprise considering Lamar Jackson’s dismal playoff performance to end the previous season.
Week 11 – 2019
Josh Allen scored 20+ DK points eight times and had 2 games with 19 points so you can see someone using him. Allen also highlights the type of quarterback we’re looking for outside of the highest projected team totals and that’s a guy that can run. The opportunity for rushing yards and more importantly touchdowns is HUGE.
Week 14 – 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo & Emmanuel Sanders
On the other hand, Jimmy G broke 20+ DK points just four times in the 2019 regular season, but he scored 30+ in three of those four games.Two of the 30+ games were against Arizona so I’m not saying Week 14 2019 was a luckbox week for Garoppolo but I’m also not saying that it wasn’t a luckbox week.
The remaining names are Lamar (twice), Dak, and Matt Ryan. Those are guys that you’re gonna talk about using almost every week so the surprise isn’t that they showed up but that their game total was “low.” It’s also an example of something we know: Matchups and factors like that apply less to stud players than they do the average player. A guy is a star because he performs at a high level pretty consistently.
I’ll go ahead and wrap this up. Before I do I want to wish everyone good luck this season. DFS is ever-changing so make sure you’re on top of the latest trends by tuning in to Donuts’ Twitch stream and checking out all of the great content and tools here at Team Rise or Fall.
See you in the green,