Howdy to all my DFS loving friends and welcome to another Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. This week I’m going to take a look at the $20 Milly Maker and the $555 Milly Maker for what I’ve dubbed “Pros vs. Joes.” A completely original idea that I made up all on my own.
If you’re new to the Milly Maker series, there are links to the previous 11 reports at the bottom of this article. Today’s Milly Maker Report will be viewed through the lens of the strategies from the earlier reports.
Before I get rolling I have to mention that the NBA season starts in less than two weeks. Team Rise or Fall is a BEAST when it comes to NBA DFS, so if you’re not a member it’s a great time to sign up. Check out our NBA Study Hub Sample for a peek at all of the fantasy goodness we deliver during the NBA season.
Ok, let’s get to the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report!
On the left, we have the winning lineup from the $20 Week 13 Milly Maker, and on the right is the winning lineup from the $555 contest.
The number one strategy from the previous Milly Maker reports is using a quarterback from a game in the top five for implied totals on the slate. Research showed that 76% of Milly winners have fallen into that category. Well, the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Jets were NOT in the top five for implied game totals. Since we understand odds and probabilities we know that the 24% has to hit sometimes, and Week 13 was one of those times.
Another trend that got bucked in Week 13 is “Don’t Use a Tight End in the Flex Position.” I know someone is thinking “Well if everybody else ISN’T using a tight end in flex then I can be unique!” And look, it worked out. But the research of previous Milly Makers showed that the “tight end in the flex position” strategy took down one Milly Maker out of the 43 I analyzed. And now we see that strategy work in lower stakes and high stakes. In the same week! 2020 man.
One other important note about these two lineups. The $20 lineup technically used bad roster construction. You want to have your flex player in the games with the later start time. That way if you have to late swap you have the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions to choose from. With JGii”s lineup, he can only sub a tight end for Robert Tonyan which would limit the upside. The better construction would have been Darren Waller in the tight end spot and Tonyan in the flex.
Both Milly winners used a similar stacking style: Derek Carr with Darren Waller and no New York Jets player on the other side. The $555 winner, Allinfinn, used a secondary stack of Corey Davis and Jarvis Landry. JGii used Corey Davis but didn’t run it back with a Cleveland Browns player. He instead went with Justin Jefferson and ran it back with Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson. As they say, there’s more than one way to skin a cat although I have to wonder why are we skinning cats?!?!?
We also see that just like in the Pros vs. Joes Part I that the lower stake winner outscored the higher stakes winner by a significant amount. I’ll explain this again by pointing out that there are 205,882 entries in the $20 contest while there are only 5,005 entries in the $500 contest. More entries and more people means more lineup combinations and a better chance at a high score. And, as the stakes get higher the risk tolerance gets lower.
I’ve said this in a few Milly Maker Reports and I’ll go ahead and say it again here: Roster construction is more important than ownership. You would have to really go out of your way (And construct a bad lineup in the process) to build a lineup where ownership affected you. There are so many players and options that you should be able to build viable unique lineups.
In the $20 contest, we see Robert Woods 23.2% and Robert Tonyan 21% as the highest owned players in the lineup. In the $555 lineup there wasn’t a player above 15% owned. That doesn’t say a lot to me other than try to build the best lineups possible and things will fall into place. If you’re filling your lineups with guys with the highest projected ownership on the week, you’re more than likely doing it wrong. Yes, there have been a few weeks when the chalk smashes, and even then you can still get unique in four to five positions.
That’s my time for now. Good luck to everyone this weekend!
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