What’s up party people and non-party people it’s that time for the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. If this is your first time joining the report, that’s your mistake but welcome anyway. The purpose of the report is to find trends and strategies that we can apply to the Milly Maker and tournaments in general. There are links to every post in the series at the bottom of this post.
One other thing real quick: The NBA season is here! If you’ve enjoyed the success of Team Rise or Fall through the MLB and NFL seasons get ready for more $$$. If you haven’t signed up with us yet now is the time. Make sure to check out our DraftKings and Fanduel NBA Strategy Guide to get you ready for the season.
All of the information below comes via the Fantasy Cruncher Pro Lineup Study feature. It allows you to look back at years worth of information. Lineup Study is a really valuable tool and I wouldn’t be able to write a Milly Maker report without its help.
Now, on to the Milly Maker Report!
One of the most consistent trends I found from analyzing two years’ worth of Milly Makers is that 76% of the milly winning quarterbacks came from games within the top five for implied totals on the slate. Yes, it makes sense that you want guys from high scoring games, but it’s not always guys from the game with the highest implied total.
So as life goes of course Week 13 featured a quarterback outside of the top five but weeks 14 and 15 held to the trend. For the season 12 out of 15 weeks (80%) have seen a quarterback from within the top five for implied totals on the slate take down a Milly Maker. It’s honestly the easiest place to start when building your lineups.
I’m recycling this one more time because I think it’s super important: Analyzing 34 slates over 2018 and 2019 showed there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker in the 2018 NFL regular season and 14 different quarterbacks in the 2019 regular season. What I’m trying to hammer home is that you don’t have to use every QB on the slate. And in fact, you can see less than half of the quarterbacks win a Milly Maker in a given season.
So how’s 2020 going? In the first half of the 2020 season, five different quarterbacks won a Milly Maker (Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Matt Ryan). The second half of the season has seen Drew Lock, Taysom Hill, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, and Jalen Hurts take down the top position. That means for the season 11 different quarterbacks have taken down the top spot. More than 2018 but fewer than 2019 no matter how the rest of the season plays out.
Here are the defenses that allowed a milly winning quarterback in the first half of the 2020 season:
Since the first half of the season Atlanta (2), Arizona, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and the New York Jets have allowed the Milly Maker winning quarterback. Arizona (2), Atlanta (3), Minnesota (2), and the New York Jets (2) are the only teams to allow multiple milly winning quarterbacks.
In 2018, there were 14 different stack types that took down a Milly Maker. In 2019, there were 10 different stack types that took down a Milly Maker. The first half of the 2020 season saw just four stack types take down a million dollars.
Here are the stacks that took down a Milly in Weeks 9-12:
Weeks 13-15 have seen QB+WR, QB+TE, and a naked QB (Jalen Hurts) take down the #1 position. I’m a big fan of three and four man stacks (Using a QB with one or two pass catchers and one opponent) but the second half of the 2020 season has only seen that pay off twice out of seven slates. Something to keep in mind for the last two weeks of the season.
I include this in the Milly Maker reports even though I’m on the record as saying that roster construction is much more important than ownership. If you’re using some of the information above to build lineups the ownership will take care of itself.
The only advice I can give in regards to ownership is very rarely will a chalk filled lineup get you to the top. It’s ok to use chalk but no need to go overboard. There have only been two weeks this season where a milly winning lineup featured four or more 20% owned players, and another three times where a lineup featured two 20% owned players. That’s five out of 15 times (33%). I’d rather roll with the 67%.
That’s all from me for now. I hope everyone has a fun and SAFE holiday weekend. Let’s get this money!
See ya in Discord,