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DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC 272

DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC 272

Monk here. UFC 272, happening March 5th, 2022, is a great card headlined by the Battle of the BFFs, Colby Covington x Jorge Masvidal. The Co-Main Event is now Rafael dos Anjos x Renato Moicano since Rafael Fiziev was forced to withdraw. We also have the undefeated Bryce Mitchell fighting Edson Barboza, Kevin Holland x Alex Oliveira, & we get the grudge match between hated enemies Mariya Agapova x Maryna Moroz. There are a ton of opportunities for some high scores & a few upsets, so do not go cutting out a ton of fighters, although I have no problem leaving a couple of them on the cutting room floor. Much excitement for this card, so find your dogs, play your top picks, & let’s get some takedowns this weekend!

I’m going to give you three value plays & a fade this week, with a bit of what I call salary voodoo thrown in.

Play #1

Play number one is fairly obvious, but I will have Colby Covington in as many lineups as possible this week. $9400 is the second-highest salary, however, Colby’s’ numbers should be able to cover his price in a win. Scoring 4.52 Raw DKP/m & 121.89 DKP/W, Covington is one of, if not the best scorer in this entire card. I expect a big score from Colby regardless of finish or decision, & I will have as much exposure as I can get here in this fight.

Jorge Masvidal is a bit older than Covington & much more weathered in the fight game. Also averaging over 100 DKP/W, Masvidal scores well in his wins, but I believe that is a slim chance this weekend. Jorge does have a very good TD defense, but does allow 0.53 DKP in takedowns per minute (10th lowest on the card) & is prone to be controlled as well. Classified nowadays as more of a journeyman fighter, Masvidal is extremely tough & durable, but the pace I expect Colby to put on should be too high, wearing down Masvidal by the third or fourth round.

I see Colby Covington being able to land TDs & control Jorge for the majority of this fight, & I plan on rostering Colby in as many lineups as possible.

Play #2

I will be going with Rafael dos Anjos as my second play of the week. RDA, listed at $7300 against Rafael Fiziev, got a new opponent and kept the old salary. I believe there is a ton of value on that $7300 salary against Renato Moicano, who does average over 98 DKP/L. Rafael scores very well in wins, averaging 101.81 DKP/W. He is also $1,020 less than his average salary, so get in on the value. With tremendous rinse & repeat wrestling, I will be looking for dos Anjos to put up a good score whether he wins inside the distance or the fight goes to decision.

Renato Moicano is tough as nails, but just fought Alexander Hernandez a couple of weeks ago & has not had anything close to a full camp going up against RDA. Moicano has tremendous TD Defense, but I see dos Anjos wearing him down minute after minute, tiring Renato out. Moicano is not the highest scorer in wins & scores over 100 DKP in only 37.50% of his UFC wins.

I like both sides of this fight, but I prefer Rafael dos Anjos for DK. You are getting an absolute steal on him at $7300 & I believe you cannot pass on that opportunity. I will be rostering both fighters with much more weight on the dos Anjos side.

Play #3

Play number three is going to be Umar Nurmagomedov. Yes, he is the most expensive fighter this week, but I honestly believe he will pay off the price tag. With only one UFC fight, Umar sounds too inexperienced to have this high of a salary thrown at him, but his grappling & submission upside is too great to ignore. Umar scored 4.82 RDKP/m in his first UFC fight, landing five takedowns & controlling 95.68% of all control time.

Brian Kelleher looked ok against Kevin Croom, but I was surprised that he did not get the finish. Brian has an extremely tough fight against Umar, especially when he is sporting just a 60% TD Defense, which Umar should be able to exploit very easily. Kelleher has also been submitted six times in his career, & that is exactly how I see this fight ending.

With a decent amount of dogs in play this week, I will not have a problem paying up for Umar Nurmagomedov. I will be playing him next to the $9400 Covington & finding balance elsewhere.

Fade #1

My fade for UFC 272 will be Dustin Jacoby at $8600. While scoring only 2.58 RDKP/m & only 92.72 per win, Jacoby is not a fighter I will have high exposure to this Saturday. While the $8600 salary is great for Salary Voodoo (making the optimal lineup in 40% of uses), the $7600 salary also has a ton of upside & I like that fighter to win against Jacoby this week.

I believe Michal Oleksiejczuk has a good chance of winning this fight on Saturday. The ever-pressuring fighter that has KO power could walk Jacoby down, eat some shots, & keep coming. The $8600/$7600 salary pair is a great one, with one fighter making the optimal lineup 62.50% of the time, the second-highest rate of all salary pairs.

With Jacoby not scoring well overall & my lean to Michal, I will be well under the field on Dustin Jacoby at $8600.

 

There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.

I do a weekly show, Game Theory, over on YouTube where I prep you for UFC 272 with everything you need for MMA DFS. Check it out!

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Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.

-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks