DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC 272
DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC 272
Monk here. UFC 272, happening March 5th, 2022, is a great card headlined by the Battle of the BFFs, Colby Covington x Jorge Masvidal. The Co-Main Event is now Rafael dos Anjos x Renato Moicano since Rafael Fiziev was forced to withdraw. We also have the undefeated Bryce Mitchell fighting Edson Barboza, Kevin Holland x Alex Oliveira, & we get the grudge match between hated enemies Mariya Agapova x Maryna Moroz. There are a ton of opportunities for some high scores & a few upsets, so do not go cutting out a ton of fighters, although I have no problem leaving a couple of them on the cutting room floor. Much excitement for this card, so find your dogs, play your top picks, & let’s get some takedowns this weekend!
I’m going to give you three value plays & a fade this week, with a bit of what I call salary voodoo thrown in.
Play number one is fairly obvious, but I will have Colby Covington in as many lineups as possible this week. $9400 is the second-highest salary, however, Colby’s’ numbers should be able to cover his price in a win. Scoring 4.52 Raw DKP/m & 121.89 DKP/W, Covington is one of, if not the best scorer in this entire card. I expect a big score from Colby regardless of finish or decision, & I will have as much exposure as I can get here in this fight.
Jorge Masvidal is a bit older than Covington & much more weathered in the fight game. Also averaging over 100 DKP/W, Masvidal scores well in his wins, but I believe that is a slim chance this weekend. Jorge does have a very good TD defense, but does allow 0.53 DKP in takedowns per minute (10th lowest on the card) & is prone to be controlled as well. Classified nowadays as more of a journeyman fighter, Masvidal is extremely tough & durable, but the pace I expect Colby to put on should be too high, wearing down Masvidal by the third or fourth round.
I see Colby Covington being able to land TDs & control Jorge for the majority of this fight, & I plan on rostering Colby in as many lineups as possible.
I will be going with Rafael dos Anjos as my second play of the week. RDA, listed at $7300 against Rafael Fiziev, got a new opponent and kept the old salary. I believe there is a ton of value on that $7300 salary against Renato Moicano, who does average over 98 DKP/L. Rafael scores very well in wins, averaging 101.81 DKP/W. He is also $1,020 less than his average salary, so get in on the value. With tremendous rinse & repeat wrestling, I will be looking for dos Anjos to put up a good score whether he wins inside the distance or the fight goes to decision.
Renato Moicano is tough as nails, but just fought Alexander Hernandez a couple of weeks ago & has not had anything close to a full camp going up against RDA. Moicano has tremendous TD Defense, but I see dos Anjos wearing him down minute after minute, tiring Renato out. Moicano is not the highest scorer in wins & scores over 100 DKP in only 37.50% of his UFC wins.
I like both sides of this fight, but I prefer Rafael dos Anjos for DK. You are getting an absolute steal on him at $7300 & I believe you cannot pass on that opportunity. I will be rostering both fighters with much more weight on the dos Anjos side.
Play number three is going to be Umar Nurmagomedov. Yes, he is the most expensive fighter this week, but I honestly believe he will pay off the price tag. With only one UFC fight, Umar sounds too inexperienced to have this high of a salary thrown at him, but his grappling & submission upside is too great to ignore. Umar scored 4.82 RDKP/m in his first UFC fight, landing five takedowns & controlling 95.68% of all control time.
Brian Kelleher looked ok against Kevin Croom, but I was surprised that he did not get the finish. Brian has an extremely tough fight against Umar, especially when he is sporting just a 60% TD Defense, which Umar should be able to exploit very easily. Kelleher has also been submitted six times in his career, & that is exactly how I see this fight ending.
With a decent amount of dogs in play this week, I will not have a problem paying up for Umar Nurmagomedov. I will be playing him next to the $9400 Covington & finding balance elsewhere.
My fade for UFC 272 will be Dustin Jacoby at $8600. While scoring only 2.58 RDKP/m & only 92.72 per win, Jacoby is not a fighter I will have high exposure to this Saturday. While the $8600 salary is great for Salary Voodoo (making the optimal lineup in 40% of uses), the $7600 salary also has a ton of upside & I like that fighter to win against Jacoby this week.
I believe Michal Oleksiejczuk has a good chance of winning this fight on Saturday. The ever-pressuring fighter that has KO power could walk Jacoby down, eat some shots, & keep coming. The $8600/$7600 salary pair is a great one, with one fighter making the optimal lineup 62.50% of the time, the second-highest rate of all salary pairs.
With Jacoby not scoring well overall & my lean to Michal, I will be well under the field on Dustin Jacoby at $8600.
There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.
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Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.
-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks