DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC 274
DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC 274
Monk here with a UFC 274 DFS breakdown for TeamRiseorFall.com. We are in for a treat this weekend, with several fights slated to finish inside the distance and, more importantly, TWO title fights that promise to be fantastic. Charles Oliveira x Justin Gaethje is even more dramatic with Oliveira missing weight and being stripped of the Lightweight title hours before the defense of his belt. We also get the rematch between Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza, which could be a fight with an unexpected outcome. OSP, Shogun, Cowboy & Lauzon round out the main card with Michael Chandler x Tony Ferguson smack dab in the middle. I told you, this is one you cannot miss!
I’m going to give you three value plays & a fade this week, so let’s get right into it.
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Play #1 – Andre Fialho ($9500)
The first play I will give you for UFC 274 is Andre Fialho at $9500. Now, $9500 is the second-highest salary on the card, but for good reason. The salary has been used 21 times and has made the optimal lineup 11 times for a 52.38% rate, the highest of all DraftKings salaries. $9500 has a win rate of 80.95% and it makes the optimal lineup 64.71% of the time it wins.
Andre Fialho has not shown the best offensive acing so far into his young UFC career, scoring only 2.18 raw DraftKings points per minute, but in his recent first-round win over Miguel Baeza, Fialho scored 112.89 DraftKings points. I feel that Andre has shown good skills and has proven why he should be competing at this level, and it seems the UFC has rewarded him with a lower-level fighter in his third fight.
Cameron VanCamp is a UFC debutante with the worst salary numbers available. The opposite of the $9500 salary, $6700 is easily the worst salary to play, historically. Making the optimal lineup only once out of 22 uses (thanks, Dean Barry) and carrying a 9.09% win rate, this is a salary I tend to avoid at all costs and instead throw everything at its $9500 counterpart. I expect to be very heavy on the Fialho side on GPP games this week.
Play #2 – Justin Gaethje ($7700)
The second play of the night will be Justin Gaethje at the underdog salary of $7700. Gaethje has a tremendous scoring upside, averaging 3.56 raw DraftKings points per minute and over 105 when he wins. He also carries an average value of 10.28 and is coming in $300 under his average salary. Justin has insane power in his hands and could easily find Oliveira’s chin, as it has been found several times in the recent past, easily paying off his salary in a win and making the optimal lineup.
In a shocking turn of events, Charles Oliveira was stripped of the UFC Lightweight Championship today after failing on numerous occasions to make weight. Unfortunately for Oliveira, he will be unable to win the belt even in the event of him winning the fight. All that said, I’m sure Charles is back up to a healthy fighting weight by now and will be looking to retain that belt. However, as I mentioned above, his chin has been checked, most recently in his last fight, and Gaethje hits harder than anyone at 155 pounds.
Most notably, the $7700 salary is the second-best salary to play, not just as a dog salary, but as a salary overall. With a win percentage of 52.73 and a win-and-make-optimal rate of 68.97%, $7700 is an easy salary to get to and one of my favorites to play.
Play #3 – Carla Esparza ($7300)
The third and final play for me is Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza at $7300. Carla puts on a tremendous pace, scoring 3.75 raw DraftKings points per minute and 96.77 when she wins. Esparza also averages 1.18 points per minute in takedowns alone and 0.59 points per minute in control time. I see Esparza being able to rinse and repeat takedowns on Namajunas, but she may be able to rack up some control time as well.
Rose Namajunas has a top ten defensive pace, allowing just 2.59 raw DraftKings points per minute, but her opponents average 95.25 DraftKings points per loss. Rose has a takedown defense in the UFC of just 51.72% and I think Carla won’t be shy in shooting for those takedowns or catching kicks followed by a trip attempt.
Carla Esparza has scored over 90 DraftKings points in six of nine wins and in 5 of those wins, she has put up over 100 points. At that pace and at those numbers, a win for Esparza here all but guarantees her spot on the optimal lineup, and it would be nice to hear “AND NEW” a week before her wedding. What a story that would be.
Fade #1 – Michael Chandler ($9600)
If you have been following me or watching my videos or reading my articles for the past three months, you probably know what I am going to say here, but I’m going to say it anyway. The $9600 salary is simply too expensive to have any meaningful value in GPP tournaments. We do not have the biggest sample size, but this salary has been used ten times since 1/1/2021 and has made the optimal lineup only one of those times (Marvin Vettori x Kevin Holland, Vettori scored over 156).
Salary Voodoo aside, Michael Chandler generally puts on a fantastic pace, scoring 3.78 raw DraftKings points per minute in his three UFC fights, and he did score 107.07 in his lone UFC win against Dan Hooker. However, Chandler has also allowed 4.61 raw DraftKings points per minute and 100.99 is what his opponents have averaged when he loses, subpar numbers there.
Tony Ferguson was one of the most durable fighters we have ever witnessed in the octagon and has and deserves our respect. That said, I think the guy that steps into the cage on Saturday is a completely different fighter than he was four or five years ago. El Cucuy has not looked great in a few fights now, and I don’t see how he magically improved over the past year since he last fought. That said, I do not think Chandler will be able to finish Tony in the first round and I do not think he pays off that $9600 salary in GPP tournaments. I love Chandler in cash games but walking on by when it comes to GPP tournaments.
There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.
I do a weekly show, Game Theory, over on YouTube where I prep you for UFC 274 with everything you need for MMA DFS. Check it out!
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Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.
-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks
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