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DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC Vegas 48

Hello & welcome to the DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 48. Use these DraftKings DFS MMA Picks with the MMA Study Hub & be sure to check out the MMA DFS Picks & Pool, which contain breakdowns of each fighter competing at UFC Vegas 48.

Monk here. UFC Vegas 48, happening February 19, 2022, at The UFC Apex, is an interesting card, shall we say. The battle of the Rafaels has been moved, so the main event is now Jamahal Hill x Johnny Walker. Just because we have almost zero name recognition does not mean that we can’t make some money this week. I’m looking forward to a high-variance type of card, so we must be careful about dishing out big exposures.

I’m going to give you three value plays & a fade this week, with a bit of what I call salary voodoo thrown in.

Pick #1

For the first play of the card, I’m looking squarely at one of the headlining fighters, Jamahal Hill. Hill made the optimal lineup in one of his two fights in 2021. Coming in at $9,000 this week, I see a lot of value potential in Hill. Not only does he average 98.31 DraftKings points when he wins, but Jamahal also puts up the third-highest Raw DraftKings points rate at 3.82/min. Hill is coming in $660 over his average salary, but he is facing an opponent with some question marks in his game.

Once known for being a freakishly athletic, unpredictable fighter, Johnny Walker has put himself in check & changed his style. The Santos fight was more of a staring contest than a UFC fight, with neither side wanting to push the pace. I think if Walker stays less predictable it will allow Jamahal Hill to find openings, figure out timing, & land shots at a high rate. Hill lands 6.65 SS/m, one of the highest rates in the LHW division. It should also be noted that Walker has been knocked down by strikes three times in his seven-fight UFC career & has been finished by KO/TKO in the past.

Salary voodoo: The $9000 salary wins only 61.54% of the time since 1/1/2021, but it makes the optimal lineup 58.33% of those wins. The main event makes the optimal lineup 70.21% of the time, & we have been in a drought lately. I like the winners’ odds of making it this week.

I believe Hill has the volume & speed to not simply hang with Johnny Walker in this fight, but to win the striking battle & possibly get the finish.

Pick #2

Next, I will look to roster Parker pucking Porter. Low-level heavies usually result in fun & unpredictable fights, & I see this one being no different. There is an argument that Alan Baudot has no right to be in the UFC, & I tend to agree. Porter should run through this guy with a decent game plan. Parker scores 3.67 DK points/min just on strikes. He scores another 0.79 pts/min with his grappling & control time ability, of which Baudot has none.

Parker Porter averages 103.39 DK pts in his two UFC wins while Baudot is allowing just under 100 per loss. Porter also averages the second-highest Raw DK pts rate on the entire card at 4.46/min. Parker’s chin is the only part of this fight that I will be worried about. He has been knocked down in the past & even finished by KO to Chris Daukaus in his 2020 debut. Since then, Parker has won both fights by U-DEC & looked decent doing it.

Salary voodoo: The $8900 salary is ok, winning 64.10% of the time & making the optimal lineup in 40.00% of those wins. Stay with me…the HW weight class makes the optimal at a rate of 56.10% (highest out of all classes) & the winner of the 10th fight of the night makes the optimal at an astounding rate of 67.44% (also highest overall).

I love this spot for Parker Porter. Between the stats & all the salary voodoo, if Porter wins early, he should have a great score.

Pick #3

The last of my fighters to roster will be Jessica-Rose Clark, maybe not for GPPs, but in cash games. Averaging 93.36 DK pts per win, JRC scores relatively well, especially in the strawweight division. Her opponent, Stephanie Egger allowed only 80 DK points in her one loss, but I like Clark’s TD potential in this fight. Egger has allowed 0.67 points/min worth of TDs & 0.83 control time points/min so far in her young career, & I think Jessica-Rose will be able to take full advantage of that, as she scores almost 40% of her points in the grappling range.

Jessy Jess scores well in KO/TKO wins (104.94 pts) & well in decisions too (86.06 pts). Clark is only $100 over her average salary with the sixth-highest value on the entire card at 8.27. Clark also has the beginnings of a winning streak here with good-looking victories over Joselyne Edwards & Sarah Alpar, whom she finished in the third round.

Salary Voodoo: Readers of mine know that the $8600 is by far my favorite salary of them all. It boasts the highest win rate at 75.56% & it makes the optimal lineup in 55.88% of those wins. Strawweight fights make the optimal at exactly a 50% rate, so you cannot completely count out WMMA fights when playing DK.

In conclusion, I won’t have a ton of exposure to this fight in GPP, but I will be rostering Jessica-Rose Clark in a ton of my cash lineups.

Fade #1

We will finish off UFC Vegas 48 with The Monkmatician’s fighter to fade. After much deliberation & a bit of soul-searching, I’ve decided that I will be fading newcomer Nikolas Motta against Jim Miller. DK is not a thing for Dana White Contender Series, but if it was, Motta would’ve only scored 46.80 points in his decision win. 46.80. He would’ve also had an extremely low pace at 1.12 Raw DK pts/min. This is going to be a show-me-first type situation with Motta before I can justify $8500 to have him in my lineups.

Jim Miller is getting up there in age & people have been saying he’s done for a few years now. Pretty sure they say the same about Andrei Arlovski & look how that has been going. Could Motta run through Miller here? I guess so. But again, he is going to have to prove that he is worth rostering in any type of tournament because 1.12 DK pts/min isn’t going to cut the mustard.

Salary voodoo: $8500 is an ok salary, winning at a rate of 52.17%, but the $7700 salary is much more desirable. I would personally stay away from this one or just play Miller in cash. I think Motta has a tough time getting a finish, as he will have to KO Jim Miller rather early to make the optimal this week.

 

There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.

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Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.

-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks