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DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC Vegas 50

DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 50

Monk here with another UFC DFS breakdown for TeamRiseorFall.com. UFC Vegas 50, happening March 12, 2022, is lining up to be one of the better non-PPV cards so far this year. Headlined by Magomed Ankalaev x Thiago Santos & featuring a fantastic co-main event in Marlon Moraes x Yadong Song, this event has several exciting fights lined to finish inside the distance. We have 14 fights with which to construct our lineups this week, so don’t be scared to play some variance, especially with some live dogs on the slate. Another fight card where the highest DraftKings salary they offer is in play ($9600), so be careful where and when you decide to play that price tag. Best of luck this week and let’s get into the stats!

I’m going to give you three value plays & a fade this week, with a bit of what I call salary voodoo thrown in.

Play #1

The first fighter on UFC Vegas 50 that I will be looking to roster is Yadong Song ($9200) going against Marlon Moraes ($7000). Song is a decent scorer, tallying 3.09 points per minute and 93.16 DKP/W. Song will have to endure a very tough round one, but I think his chin can handle whatever Moraes throws his way (see the head kick he ate from Phillips). Yadong has put up over 90 DKP in five of his seven UFC wins & over 100 DKP in 4 of those seven wins, making him a very consistent scorer.

Marlon Moraes is a fighter that has fallen far from his UFC heyday, going 1-4 in his last five with all four losses coming by way of KO/TKO finish. Moraes gets outscored on the feet by almost a point per minute and gives up 103.53 DKP per UFC loss.

I do think Yadong Song will finish Marlon Moraes inside the distance in this one, so I must have a decent portion of Song in my lineups, & I think I like him the most out of all top tier salaried fighters for GPP plays.

Play #2

My next fighter to roster is going to be Damon Jackson ($7800) against Kamuela Kirk ($8400). Damon has a great pace, 3.23 points per minute, but only averages 85.30 DKP per win. I think Jackson will of course have a wrestle heavy game plan going into this fight & Kirk is seemingly the perfect opponent to work that game plan to a T. Damon scores 0.83 TD pts per minute (2nd highest on the card) & 0.76 control time points per minute (2nd highest on the card) while Kamuela Kirk gives up 2.49 points per minute in grappling alone.

Kamuela Kirk showed a very low volume & a propensity to be taken down & controlled in his first UFC fight against Makwan Amirkhani. I do see this fight going to decision, with Jackson landing a few takedowns and possibly several minutes of control time. Damon does score 112.52 DK points when he wins by U-DEC, which is what I will be looking at in this fight.

I think Jackson has the potential to pay off his underdog salary, winning against Kirk in a three-round decision.

Play #3

My third and final fighter I am talking up is Gillian Robertson ($8500) going against JJ Aldrich ($7700). Gillian is a fantastic DraftKings scorer, racking up 3.18 points per minute and scoring 102.03 on average when she wins. Robertson is a grapple-heavy fighter, which as you know, DraftKings tends to favor when it comes to the final score. Gillian tallies more points than anyone else on the card in takedowns and control time and averages triple digits when she wins by finish.

JJ Aldrich has 9 UFC fights under her belt but is generally a low-scoring fighter. Recording only 2.44 points per minute and less than 71 points per win, Aldrich is a fighter I would lean towards fading no matter her opponent. 10 of Aldrich’s 16 professional fights have gone the distance and she hasn’t had a finish in the last 3 years.

I think Gillian is going to be the more skilled fighter in her area of expertise and has the chance to get Aldrich down while securing good positions, possibly putting herself in a place where she can also secure a finish. I like her to pay off that $8500 salary, which makes the optimal lineup 62.50% of the time it wins.

Fade #1

The fighter I will be picking to fade this week is going to be Magomed Ankalaev at $9600. Don’t get me wrong, I think Ankalaev wins and wins soundly inside the distance, but statistically, the $9600 salary is simply too expensive to roster. That salary has only made the optimal lineup one time, and that was Marvin Vettori against Kevin Holland and Vettori scored over 150 DraftKings points. If any underdogs at all win their fight and score around 100 points or more, there goes Magomed right off the optimal and there goes $9600 in salary in the garbage can (rubbish bin for all overseas readers).

I think this salary is impossible to make the optimal short of scoring in the 130 to 140 point range, which seems unlikely in this case with Ankalaev scoring only 96 points per win. Again, I love Ankalaev to win the fight relatively easily against the 38-year-old Thiago Santos, but he is simply too expensive to roster in a good number of lineups, in my opinion.

 

There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.

I do a weekly show, Game Theory, over on YouTube where I prep you for UFC Vegas 50 with everything you need for MMA DFS. Check it out!

Lastly, be sure to subscribe to TeamRiseorFall so you stay at the tippy top of the leaderboards!

Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.

-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks