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DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC Vegas 52

DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 52

Monk here with a UFC DFS breakdown for TeamRiseorFall.com. We are back with UFC Vegas 52 and while there has been a good amount of shuffling this week, we have settled on 12 fights for Saturday evening. Amanda Lemos x Jessica Andrade is your Main Event, which should be a banger, especially since both women are fantastic DraftKings scorers. The Co-Main is fan favorite Clay Guida x Claudio Puelles, who is looking for his fifth straight win. We also get to watch Alexandr Romanov take the soul of Chase Sherman Saturday night, so get ready for a roaring good time!

I’m going to give you three value plays & a fade this week, so let’s get right into it.

Before we get started, be sure to check out some of the other amazing content that our experts at Team Rise or Fall have put together. Our very own Pat Kingpin has a fantastic MLB article for you today. MLB DFS Lineup Study for April 22 is LIVE on TeamRiseOrFall now and includes a wealth of MLB DFS morsels and information to help you get that money one night before UFC fights. I know you want to play in that 100k tourney, so build your bankroll a bit with the help of Pat Kingpin! Why not make money instead of wasting it? Click it…click it…click it! Find that and much, much more over on TeamRiseorFall.com and start dominating your tournaments TODAY!

DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 52

Play #1 – Marc-Andre Barriault ($8600)

The first play I’ll give you for UFC Vegas 52 is the hard-hitting Marc-Andre Barriault. At $8600, Barriault’s numbers have been paying off his salary in his wins. Scoring 3.13 DraftKings points per minute and 106.07 points per win, Marc-Andre has one of the highest-scoring upsides on the entire card. Pair that with the 10th highest Power Index, sprinkle in an opponent with a glass chin, and you have a recipe for an optimal fighter.

Jordan Wright is a fighter with huge power in his hands, but if he doesn’t clock and beat you within the first 60 seconds, his danger level diminishes significantly. Wright has shown that his brain can be shut off with one punch, and if Marc-Andre Barriault can keep head and foot movement, I think he has a great chance to finish Jordan relatively early for a big score.

The salary voodoo for this fight is also tremendous, not to mention the catchweight stipulation that is in place. $8600 has made the Optimal Lineup 19 times out of 51 uses since 1/1/2021, a 37.25% rate. It has a 70.59% win rate and makes the Optimal Lineup 52.78% of the time when it wins, all very high numbers compared to the other salaries. The catchweight designation has been used 12 times in the same period and someone from those fights has made the Optimal Lineup 58.33% of the time. Give me the Barriault upside all day with the great salary voodoo of $8600.

Play #2 – Montana de la Rosa ($7200)

The second play this week will be Montana de la Rosa against Maycee Barber. De La Rosa is one of my favorite underdog plays of UFC Vegas 52 and the salary is beautiful. Averaging 3.38 raw DraftKings points per minute and 95.58 points per win, Montana is one of the better scorers in the entire Strawweight division. De La Rosa’s ground game is a few notches above her opponent, scoring 1.52 points per minute in takedowns and control time alone. In 60% of Montana’s UFC wins she has scored over 90 points and she has finished four of her five UFC victories before the final bell.

Maycee Barber can be tough to root for, but let’s push that to the side and focus on numbers. Barber is allowing 2.83 raw DraftKings points per minute and only 83 per loss, but the angle that I’m eyeing this week is her lack of ground game. Maycee allows only 0.16 takedowns points per minute, but 0.54 points per minute in control time is her clear weak point. Maycee has yet to be finished in a UFC fight, but this could be the week that changes if Montana chooses to use her powerful ground game.

$7200 is a great underdog salary to play, making the Optimal Lineup in 12 of 48 uses since 1/1/2021. It wins only 33.33% of the time, but when it does, it makes the Optimal Lineup at a rate of 75%. If and when Montana de la Rosa submits Maycee Barber (giving Barber her very first UFC finish loss), I would imagine her score is optimal, especially at this extremely low price.

Play #3 – Jessica Andrade ($8900)

The third and final play of UFC Vegas 52 is going to be Jessica Andrade. Andrade is a scoring machine, tallying 4.65 raw DraftKings points per minute and a whopping 116.16 points per win, the highest number on the card. The kicker is that Andrade has bounced around weight classes in her UFC career, but if you focus on her Strawweight fights alone, her numbers go UP (120.02 DKP/W). Jessica can score points from everywhere, recording 3.14 points per minute on the feet and a huge 1.48 points per minute via grappling.

Amanda Lemos is a very serious opponent but did give up a ton of points in her lone UFC loss (115.64). Lemos will be the bigger, longer woman in the octagon on Saturday. However, I believe that the experience and overwhelming tenacity of Andrade will prove too much for Lemos and that Jessica will win this fight while scoring well over the 100-point mark. I will be rostering both sides of this fight, but with a primary focus on the Jessica Andrade side of things.

Fade #1 – Dwight Grant ($7900)

My big fade for UFC Vegas 52 is Dwight Grant. Grant has shown to be tremendously underwhelming thus far in his UFC career, averaging less than 1.79 raw DraftKings points per minute and only 69.97 points per win over three wins. Dwight is allowing more points in almost every category than he is scoring and has only put up 90 or more DraftKings points once in his three wins.

I do think that Dwight Grant can win this fight over Sergey Khandozhko, but I do not see him finishing and I do not see Grant scoring more than 80 points or so. I would much rather spend my salary on fighters such as Claudio Puelles ($8000), Evan Elder ($8100), and even down to Jordan Wright ($7600) for the finish upside rather than roster the proven low scorer Dwight Grant in my lineups.

 

There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.

I do a weekly show, Game Theory, over on YouTube where I prep you for UFC Columbus with everything you need for MMA DFS. Check it out!

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Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.

-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks