DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC Vegas 56
DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 56
Reunited and it feels so good! We are back with UFC Vegas 56 this Saturday and while it felt amazing to have a week off, it feels even better to come back! From Jeff Molina x Zhalgas Zhumagulov to Alonzo Menifield against who even knows this guy at this point, there are some bangers to look forward to. Add to that the co-main event between Movsar Evloev and Dan Ige and that’s a card right there! Oh yeah, we get two heavyweights in the main event as Alexander Volkov goes up against the bang or bust Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Make that cheese dip tonight, because the 12 pm CST start time of UFC Vegas 56 waits for no one!
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Play #1 – Damon Jackson ($9500)
Damon Jackson will likely be my highest owned fighter this weekend, and for good reason. His scoring numbers are decent, averaging 3.31 raw DraftKings points per minute and 92.44 points per win, but Jackson has made the optimal lineup in both of his previous two UFC fights, scoring 106.71 and 112.52. Damon also has seemingly good luck as his opponent is a UFC newcomer with only eight professional fights.
As I said above, Daniel Argueta is making his UFC debut against Jackson on Saturday, and I have zero stats for this kid. He is a perfect 8-0 professionally, with six of those wins ending inside the distance.
The $9500 salary is statistically the best performing salary of all that DraftKings offers. A win rate of 81.82% is good enough, but this salary is optimal 66.67% of the time it wins. These are top numbers across the board. With all this information at our disposal, I will choose to be well over the field on Damon Jackson against Daniel Argueta on Saturday and I am expecting a relatively early finish.
Play #2 – Alonzo Menifield ($8700)
This play could be a bit riskier, but it could also pay off hugely. Alonzo Menifield, the seven-fight UFC vet, is going against Askar Mozharov (if that is his real name) on Saturday and I will be targeting almost 100% of this fight. Alonzo tends to be bang or bust, but I’m putting my chips on “bang” this week.
Askar Mozharov has had quite the week. His record on Tapology has been adjusted at least three times since Tuesday. We started at 25-7, dropped to 21-11, then 21-12, and I believe we are finally at 19-12. I mean, what are we supposed to do with this information? Add to that, most of his wins and losses have been first-round finishes, as this guy will seemingly tap to anything once this hits the ground.
If Alonzo watched any tape at all, he should instantly shoot the takedown, Jailton Almeida-style, and immediately ground and pound this fraud right out of the UFC. However, this is Alonzo Menifield we are talking about, so some exposure to Askar is suggested. Hoping Menifield wins this one and wins it early, and if that does not come to fruition, Alonzo will likely only be able to blame himself.
Play #3 – Zhalgas Zhumagulov ($7200)
The third and final play I’ll give you is going to be none other than The Double Z, Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Scoring only 2.44 raw DraftKings points per minute and 94.36 in his win, Zhalgas may be flying a bit under the radar against Jeff Molina.
This Zhalgas play is a play against the huge ownership of Jeff Molina. Molina currently sits around 34%, and I expect that number to go up a bit before lock. Zhalgas is tough as nails and has been finished only once in his UFC career.
I plan to be well over the field with Zhalgas. I simply cannot justify that huge line on Molina with having only two UFC fights against guys that are nowhere near the level of Zhumagulov. This play will also bring you a ton of salary relief so you can easily get to your Jacksons and Evloevs and whatnot.
Fade #1 – Erin Blanchfield ($9600)
My big fade this week for UFC Vegas 56 is Erin Blanchfield at $9600. That salary, while having a fantastic win rate, has only made the optimal lineup ONCE out of 11 uses, giving it the lowest optimal lineup rate in wins across every salary. Blanchfield scores very well, but if a few fighters even come close to her score, she is going right off the optimal.
JJ Aldrich is a tough UFC vet with 10 fights in this promotion under her belt. Aldrich is also coming into this fight $1560 less than her average salary, making her a great option for a punt play for salary relief. JJ has been finished only once in the UFC and could easily go all three rounds with Blanchfield. If that happens, I’d be listening very closely for a split decision.
Erin Blanchfield is a fantastic DraftKings scorer, averaging over six points per minute and 120.55 when she wins, but I fear she will not be able to hit those numbers against Aldrich here, rendering the $9600 a waste in GPP tournaments. I will be 20% under the field on Blanchfield and will instead look to roster her opponent for leverage and unique lineup construction.
There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.
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Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.
-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks