DraftKings MMA DFS Picks | UFC Vegas 57
DraftKings MMA DFS Picks for UFC Vegas 57
We are already halfway through 2022, but the incredible summer of fights feels like it is just beginning. UFC Vegas 57 is the 21st UFC card of the year, and it has what promises to be one of the most intense main events we have seen thus far. Arman Tsarukyan x Mateusz Gamrot is going to be a banger of a fight, but we also get to see a few extremely hot prospects in action before that five-rounder kicks off. The professionally undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov is back in action, as well as the 15-0 Shavkat Rakhmonov. If these names aren’t enough to get you intrigued, I don’t know what to do for you. Head on over to TeamRiseOrFall.com, hop in the Discord, and maybe I can try to talk some sense into you that way.
And as usual, I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.
Before we get started, be sure to check out some of the other amazing content that our experts at Team Rise or Fall have put together. Our very own Bo McBrayer has a fantastic PGA DFS article for you, so don’t waste the chance! Get in some of the weekend showdowns and get those takedowns! Top DraftKings PGA Plays for the Travelers Championship 2022 is LIVE on TeamRiseOrFall now and includes a wealth of PGA knowledge and information to help you get those winning tickets. Help Bo help you build that bankroll so you can consistently play in those juicier tournaments! Why not make money instead of wasting it? Click it…click it…click it! Find that and much, much more over on TeamRiseorFall.com and start dominating your tournaments TODAY!
Play #1 – Umar Nurmagomedov ($9500)
Let’s start these picks off with a bang. There are numerous reasons you should roster Umar Nurmagomedov in most of your lineups on Saturday; here are a few. In just under 12 minutes of UFC cage time, Umar averages 4.80 raw DraftKings points per minute. 2.52 points of that per minute total can be attributed to takedowns and another 0.67 points for control time. And that’s not even the best part…
Umar has allowed only 0.32 raw DraftKings points per minute in those same 12 minutes. 0.32. Nurmagomedov’s opponent, Nate Maness, is allowing a few more than that at 4.16 points per minute. There may come a day when we fade Umar, but this does not seem to be that day.
Lastly, the $9500 salary is, simply put, the best salary to roster in DraftKings when attempting to play optimally in GPP tournaments. Here are a few stats for the $9.5K salary: been used 24 times since 1/1/21 and has made the optimal lineup 13 times (54.17%). On top of that, 9.5K has a win rate of 83.33% and it finds itself optimal in 65% of those wins. Long story short, play Umar Nurmagomedov.
Play #2 – Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9300)
Shavkat Rakhmonov is coming in hot as my second must-play of UFC Vegas 57. Shavkat is another high-salaried guy, but his finishing upside is immense, and he has scored extremely well thus far in his two-fight UFC career. 3.80 raw DraftKings points per minute and 103.61 is what Rakhmonov has accrued so far, and his opponent, Neil Magny, is not exactly known for his defensive prowess.
Rakhmonov burst onto the American scene, getting three relatively quick wins over Carlston Harris (Rd 1 KO), Michel Prazeres (Rd 2 SUB), and Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira (Rd 1 SUB). Oh, and if you didn’t know, Shavkat is undefeated professionally and has finished all 15 of his fights. Yes, all of them. Neil Magny has eight professional losses (seven in the UFC) and has been finished in six (five in the UFC) of them.
These are just a few reasons why I love Shavkat at this price, but I also have a gut feeling that he finishes Magny with a vicious KO/TKO, whether it be standing or from ground and pound. Maybe the Shavkat love is too strong, but until he shows me a reason to not roster him, I’d feel like a real horse’s ass if I left him out of my lineup as I watch him take Neil Magny’s soul like a real-life Mortal Kombat.
I rarely, if ever, write a fourth paragraph on a fighter, but this tidbit is worth mentioning. In an interview with Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin on Twitter), Shavkat was asked what his favorite animal is, to which he responded “Horse”. Shavkat was also asked what his favorite food was, to which he answered “Beshbarmak with horse meat”. If this guy can happily eat his favorite animal, what the hell is Neil Magny going to be able to do to him. I rest my case.
Play #3 – Rodolfo Vieira ($7600)
The third and final fighter I’ll give you is a Jiu-Jitsu phenom (legend? master?) Rodolfo Vieira. Rodolfo has shown that he belongs at this high level and his offensive pace reflects that sentiment. Scoring 3.95 raw DraftKings points per minute and 98.81 points per win, Rodolfo lands in the top five and seven on the card in those categories, respectively. Pair that with his 100% professional finish rate and Vieira is someone I cannot pass up at the underdog price of $7600.
Vieira’s opponent, Chris Curtis, is another fighter that has made quite the impression on UFC fans in his first two fights with the organization, securing KO/TKO victories against Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes. However, Rodolfo will be, by far (and I mean astronomically far) the fighter with the best ground game that Curtis has ever stood across. Vieira has landed 12 takedowns in just over 31 minutes of UFC cage time, and I can only assume Curtis’s sprawl will be put to the test at least once come Saturday evening.
I started this article with the two most expensive plays on the card, so it only makes sense to balance that high top-end out a bit with some high-risk, high-reward underdogs, and Rodolfo Vieira fits those criteria perfectly. On top of all the things I have mentioned, Vieira is a whopping $1500 cheaper than his average salary of $9100. If you are on the Rodolfo Vieira side of things, which I am against the less experienced and seemingly one-dimensional Chris Curtis, you go big and use this as an absolute smash spot. Bang or bust, baby.
Fade #1 – Jinh Yu Frey ($9200)
This fade may seem obvious, but I’m going to break it down a bit in hopes that you do not just fade Jinh Yu Frey in GPP tournaments, but that you play 0% of her at the completely ridiculous salary of $9200. The offensive stats, and yes, they are very offensive (see what I did there), are as follows: 1.93 raw DraftKings points per minute, 68.73 points per win, allows 2.15 raw DraftKings points per minute, and has yet to score even 90 points in a UFC fight.
I’m not here to tell you to play Frey’s opponent, but Vanessa Demopoulos can and should make this fight much, much closer than the betting line and salary gap would indicate. Vanessa should fight a fight that takes this one to the judges’ scorecards, but I also think she could be live for a sneaky submission on the extremely low-volume Frey.
Eight of Frey’s 11 professional fights have gone to a decision and with these subpar stats and low finishing percentages, I see no reason why you should waste $9200 on a fighter that does not average even 70 DraftKings points per win. Remember, we are paying up for the two most expensive fighters, so don’t think twice when skipping over Jinh Yu Frey, even if you think she wins.
There you have it, loyal readers. If you cannot get enough of me, please check me out over on Twitter.
I do a weekly show, Game Theory, over on YouTube where I prep you for UFC Vegas 57 with everything you need for MMA DFS. Check it out!
Lastly, be sure to subscribe to TeamRiseorFall so you stay at the tippy top of the leaderboards!
Thank you all for reading & let’s win some money & get those takedowns this weekend! I want all of you to enjoy the fights, so…enjoy.
-Monk AKA The Monkmatician AKA Monk Master Flecks
You must be logged in to post a comment.