LOADING

Type to search

FREE CONTENT DFS MLB

MLB DFS Lineup Study 4/10/2022

Top 4 MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Targets 9-1

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings as well as the popular 150 max tournament on Fanduel.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Welcome to the first of many Lineup Study for the MLB season.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-mlb channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

For the MLB lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the MLB Relay Throw 150 max and the MLB Four-Seamer 20 max tournaments on Draftkings and we are also looking at the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament on Fanduel.  As the season progresses, I am going to be breaking down this information by size of slate if we see fit, but for now I am only looking at the trends as a whole as we have had 3 slates which have all been 5 or 6 game slates.  Also note, I am only looking at that Main slates which are usually the 7:05pm Eastern start times.  If there were 2 main slates on a day, looking at you Draftkings, I am using the later of the two unless otherwise stated.  For Fanduel, I am only focusing on the main slates and not the All Day slates. 

With MLB starting up and NBA winding down, there is still NHL happening and Team Rise or Fall has you covered there.  Check out our NHL main page here and enjoy Detroit Beastie’s Hot Pucking Stacks article, cores from Beastie and DVANation, the NHL Study Hub and all of the other tools Team Rise of Fall has to offer.  Click here for the NHL main page https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs/

For today’s study, I do want to note, we are very early in the year.  Trends have not been established in any way yet.  As the season goes on, we will see more trends develop and this article will stay in a fluid state of change as I want to bring the trends that matter to you, the reader.  I am looking for feedback, so feel free to leave me comments in the TROF Discord and let me know what you think could be added or subtracted, or just to tell me you love the content!  I do have other stats I am tracking, but without a trend, I am leaving them off, for now.  My goal is to give anyone who reads this article an edge over the field, the only way to do that in DFS is to remain open minded and not set in the ways that only certain stats or trends can help get that edge. 

Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.

DRAFTKINGS LINEUP STUDY

Last night the 2 winning lineups used 13 batters and 4 pitchers combined.  Keep in mind when reading the numbers, we have already seen a day where the same person won both tournaments which I am studying so we are already seeing unexpected results.  Also, keep in mind, the numbers represent only players from the winning lineups. 

Hitter Projections – So, some of this study seems easy until you start tracking.  Projections is one of these.  Last night 13 out of 13 hitters had a projection over 5.  Total over 3 slates is 94%.  Impressive until you realize most players are over 5.  So, let’s move to 7.  Last night 12 out of 13 hitters had a projection over 7.  Total over 3 slates is 74%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 13 out of 13 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 3 slates is 81%.

Hitter 85% – Last night 12 out of 13 players had an 85% percentile of over 20. Total over 3 slates is 81%.

A or B –   6 out of 13 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 3 slates is 45%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 10 out of 13 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 65%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 3 out of 13 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 32%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 7 out of 13 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 48%.  5 out of 13 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 42%.

Stack size – Last night we saw a 2/2/2 and a 3/3 from the winners.  So far this season we have seen a 5/2, 5/3, 2/2/2, 3/3, and a Naked 5 man stack win a tournament.  None of those stacks have been used more than once by the winners.  Expect this to stabilize throughout the season, but for now with smaller slates to start the year, it has been the wild west of stacks to start the year. 

Teams used in main stack – As the season progresses, I will be looking at which teams were used in stacks and what their Vegas run totals and maybe some other stats were for the teams used in stacks.  With the stack sizes we have seen so far, there have not been trends to be tracked yet.   

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night was tough to look at gap size because of the 2/2/2 stack, but I can tell you that the 3/3 stack used a 1 gap and a 2 gap for their gaps in the stacks.  Total over 3 slates is 60% used 1 Gap, 20% used 0 Gap, and 20% used 2 Gap. 

Batting order of Main Stack – last night the 2/2/2 stacks used players batting 1-4 only in those stacks while the 3/3 used players batting 3,4,7 and 1,3,4 in their stacks.  This is a trend that I will be tracking nightly only without totals for the season, but note, I have seen all positions in the batting order used in the main stacks of the winning lineups. 

Pitchers Salary – Pitchers combined salary used was $16,500 and $15,600 by the winners.  Total over 3 slates is 80% used combined pitcher salary between $15,000 and $17,000, 20% used between $17,000 and $19,000 on pitchers. 

Individual Pitcher Salary – Last night the winners used salaries of $9,400, $8,000, $7,100, and $7,600 in their lineups.  Total over 3 slates for individual pitcher salary is 50% used between $7,000 and $8,000, 38% used between $8,000 and $10,000, and 13% used above $10,000.

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – 1 pitcher was under 50% Vegas projected win%, 2 pitchers were between 50% and 60%, and 1 pitcher was over 60%.  Total over 3 slates is 38% above 60%, 38% between 50% and 60%, and 25% under 50%. 

Vegas Opp run total – 2 pitchers used had between 4.0 and 4.5 projected run total for their opponent, 2 pitchers used had above 4.5 projected run total for their opponent.  Total over 3 slates is 38% under 4.0, 25% between 4.0 and 4.5, and 38% above 4.5.

Pitcher K% – 1 pitcher had a K% under 20%, 3 pitchers had a K% between 20% and 25%.  Total over 3 slates is 38% between 20% and 25%, 25% between 25% and 30%, 25% under 20%, and 13% above 30%.

Pitcher Opponent K% – 1 pitcher had an opponent K% of under 20%, 3 had an opponent K% of between 20% and 25%.  Total over 3 slates is 63% between 20% and 25%, 25% under 20%, and 13% between 25% and 30%. 

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winner had 150.7 and 156.7 total ownership used respectively.  Total for 3 slates is 60% have used between 150 and 175, 40% have used between 100 and 125. 

Ownership – Last night the winners used 2 and 3 players under 10% owned respectively.  So far we have not been able to identify a trend here as we have seen 2,3,4, and 6 players used under 10% with no consistent number used. 

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

Do you want to have access to all of the tools Team Rise or Fall has to offer and get them in all sports? For new members, you can take $10 off of your first month when you use my promo code!  Click this link to subscribe and use promo code: Patkingpin to get $10 off your first month https://teamriseorfall.com/subscribe-now/

FANDUEL LINEUP STUDY

For Fanduel lineup study we are only looking at the winner of the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament.  The winning lineup will always have 8 hitters and 1 pitcher.  Keep in mind, the numbers represent only players from the winning lineups. 

Hitter Projections – Last night 8 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 9.  Total over 3 slates is 100%.  Last night 7 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 10.  Total over 3 slates is 75%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 7 out of 8 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 3 slates is 79%.

A or B –   3 out of 8 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 3 slates is 42%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 6 out of 8 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 71%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 1 out of 8 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 38%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 3 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 54%.  2 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 3 slates is 46%.  BONUS – 33% of players have had a .300 ISO over their last 50 plate appearances. 

Stack size – Last night we saw a 4/2 stack used by the winner.  So far this season we have seen a 4/2, 4/4, and a 2/2/2 stack win a tournament.  None of those stacks have been used more than once by the winners.  Expect this to stabilize throughout the season, but for now with smaller slates to start the year, it has been the wild west of stacks to start the year. 

Teams used in main stack – As the season progresses, I will be looking at which teams were used in stacks and what their Vegas run totals and maybe some other stats were for the teams used in stacks.  With the stack sizes we have seen so far, there have not been trends to be tracked yet.   

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night the winner used a 2 Gap in their stack, Total over 3 slates is 50% used 0 Gap, 50% used 2 Gap.   

Batting order of Main Stack – last night the 4/2 stacks used players batting 2,3,4,7 in the main stack.  This is a trend that I will be tracking nightly only without totals for the season. 

Pitchers Salary – Pitchers salary used was $9,700 by the winner.  Total over 3 slates is 100% used pitcher salary between $8,000 and $10,000. 

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – The winning pitcher had a 54.5% Vegas Win projection.  Total over 3 slates is 67% between 50% and 60%, 33% above 60%. 

Vegas Opp run total – The winning pitcher had a 4.52 projected run total for their opponent.  Total over 3 slates is 33% under 4.0, 33% between 4.0 and 4.5, and 33% above 4.5.

Pitcher K% – The winning pitcher had a K% of 23.22.  Total over 3 slates is 33% between 20% and 25%, 33% between 25% and 30%, 33% under 20%.

Pitcher Opponent K% – The winning pitcher had an opponent K% of 18.02.  Total over 3 slates is 33% between 20% and 25%, 33% under 20%, and 33% between 25% and 30%. 

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winner had a 101.1 total lineup ownership.  Total for 3 slates is 67% have used between 100 and 125, 33% have used between 125 and 150. 

Ownership – Last night the winner used 4 players under 10% owned.  Total over 3 slates is 67% used 4 under 10%, 33% used 2 under 10%.

That is our look at last night and the season. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

More Featured Articles

Fanduel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet
Draftkings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet