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MLB DFS Lineup Study 4/11/2022

Top 4 MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Targets 9-1

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings and the popular 150 max on Fanduel.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Welcome to what is technically day 4 of MLB Lineup Study.  Come join me, as well as some of the best minds in the business, in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-mlb channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

For the MLB lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the MLB Relay Throw 150 max and the MLB Four-Seamer 20 max tournaments on Draftkings and we are also looking at the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament on Fanduel.  As the season progresses, I am going to be breaking down this information by size of slate if we see fit, but for now I am only looking at the trends as a whole as we have only had 4 slates total.  Also note, I am only looking at Main slates for each site.    

With MLB starting up Team Rise or Fall wants you to have every advantage possible to improve your game. For today, that advantage is opening up our study hub for free to everyone!  Use it on today’s slate to see what everyone is talking about when they see the Golden Microphones take over those top spots.  You can find our MLB study hub by clicking here https://teamriseorfall.com/mlb-dfs-study-hub/ .

For today’s study, I do want to note, we are very early in the year.  Trends are only beginning to emerge.  As the season goes on, we will see more trends develop and this article will stay in a fluid state of change as I want to bring the trends that matter to you, the reader.  I am looking for feedback, so feel free to leave me comments in the TROF Discord and let me know what you think could be added or subtracted, or just to tell me you love the content!  I do have other stats I am tracking, but without a trend, I am leaving them off, for now.  My goal is to give anyone who reads this article an edge over the field, the only way to do that in DFS is to remain open minded and not set in the ways that only certain stats or trends can help get that edge. 

Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.

DRAFTKINGS LINEUP STUDY

Last night the 2 winning lineups used 12 batters and 4 pitchers combined.  Keep in mind when reading the numbers, we have already seen a day where the same person won both tournaments which I am studying so we are already seeing unexpected results.  Also, keep in mind, the numbers represent only players from the winning lineups. 

Hitter Projections – Last night 11 out of 12 hitters had a projection over 5.  Total over 4 slates is 93%.  Last night 10 out of 12 hitters had a projection over 7.  Total over 4 slates is 77%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 11 out of 12 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 4 slates is 84%. I am going to start looking at higher ratings coming soon! For now though, last night 8 out of 12 players had a Rating over 60.

Hitter 85% – Last night 11 out of 12 players had an 85% percentile rating of over 20. Total over 4 slates is 84%.

A or B – 11 out of 12 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 4 slates is 58%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 10 out of 12 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 70%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 7 out of 12 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 40%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 8 out of 12 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 53%.  7 out of 12 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 47%. 

Stack size – Last night we saw a 5/2 and a 3/2/2 from the winners.  So far this season we have seen stack sizes of all types winning tournaments with 5/2 being the only stack type to win twice.    

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night was tough to look at gap size because of the 3/2/2 stack, but I can tell you that the 5 stack used a 0 gap in the stack. 

Batting order of Main Stack – last night the 5 man stack used players batting 2-6 in their stack.  The other winner main stack was a 3 man which used batters 1,3,and 7.    

Total Lineup Salary – Last night total lineup salary was $49,700 and $49,400 by the winners.  Total over 4 slates is crazy as 6 different salaries have been used.  I can tell you that 57% of winners have been over $49,500 while 43% of winners were between $49,200 and $49,500.

Pitchers Salary – Pitchers combined salary used was $18,600 and $14,800 by the winners.  Total over 4 slates is 57% used combined pitcher salary between $15,000 and $17,000, 29% used between $17,000 and $19,000 on pitchers and 14% used below $15,000 on their pitchers. 

Individual Pitcher Salary – Last night the winners used salaries of $10,200, $8,400, $7,700, and $7,100 in their lineups.  Total over 4 slates for individual pitcher salary is 50% used between $7,000 and $8,000, 33% used between $8,000 and $10,000, and 17% used above $10,000.

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – 2 pitchers were between 50% and 60% Vegas projected win%, and 2 pitcher were over 60%.  Total over 4 slates is 42% above 60%, 42% between 50% and 60%, and 17% under 50%. 

Vegas Opp run total – All 4 pitcher used had below a 4.0 projected run total for their opponent.  Total over 4 slates is 42% under 4.0, 17% between 4.0 and 4.5, and 25% above 4.5.

Pitcher K% – 2 pitchers had a K% between 20% and 25%, 1 pitcher had a K% between 25% and 30%, and 1 pitcher had a K% over 30%.  Total over 4 slates is 42% between 20% and 25%, 25% between 25% and 30%, 17% under 20%, and 17% above 30%.

Pitcher Opponent K% – 2 pitchers had an opponent K% of between 20% and 25% while 2 pitchers had an opponent K% between 25% and 30%.  Total over 4 slates is 58% between 20% and 25%, 25% between 25% and 30%, and 17% under 20%.

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winners had 111.2 and 115.3 total ownership used respectively.  Total for 3 slates is 57% have used between 100 and 125, 43% have used between 125 and 150. 

Ownership – Last night the winners used 5 and 3 players under 10% owned respectively.  I am keeping my eyes open for any trend to develop here.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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FANDUEL LINEUP STUDY

For Fanduel lineup study we are only looking at the winner of the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament.  The winning lineup will always have 8 hitters and 1 pitcher.  Keep in mind, the numbers represent only players from the winning lineups. 

Hitter Projections – Last night 7 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 9.  Total over 4 slates is 97%.  Last night 6 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 10.  Total over 4 slates is 75%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 8 out of 8 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 4 slates is 84%.

A or B – 6 out of 8 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 4 slates is 50%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 6 out of 8 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 72%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 4 out of 8 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 41%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 5 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 56%.  4 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 4 slates is 47%.  BONUS – 31% of players have had a .300 ISO over their last 50 plate appearances. 

Stack size – Last night we saw a 4/3 stack used by the winner.  No stack size has been used more than once so far this year. 

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night the winner used a 0 Gap in their stack, Total over 4 slates is 75% used 0 Gap, 25% used 2 Gap.   

Batting order of Main Stack – last night the 5 man stack used players batting 2,3,4,5 in the main stack. 

Total Lineup Salary – Last night the total lineup salary was 34,700.  Total over 4 slates is 50% used $34,700, 25% used $34,900, and 25% used $34,000. 

Pitchers Salary – Pitchers salary used was $10,400 by the winner.  Total over 4 slates is 75% used pitcher salary between $8,000 and $10,000 and 25% used over $10,000 for their pitcher. 

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – The winning pitcher had a 51.2% Vegas Win projection.  Total over 4 slates is 75% between 50% and 60%, 25% above 60%. 

Vegas Opp run total – The winning pitcher had a 3.7 projected run total for their opponent.  Total over 4 slates is 50% under 4.0, 25% between 4.0 and 4.5, and 25% above 4.5.

Pitcher K% – The winning pitcher had a K% of 32.93.  Total over 4 slates is 25% over 305%, 25% between 20% and 25%, 25% between 25% and 30%, 25% under 20%.

Pitcher Opponent K% – The winning pitcher had an opponent K% of 24.58%.  Total over 4 slates is 50% between 25% and 30%, 25% under 20%, and 25% between 20% and 25%. 

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winner had a 93.7 total lineup ownership.  Total over 4 slates is 50% have used between 100 and 125, 25% used under 100, and 25% have used between 125 and 150. 

Ownership – Last night the winner used 4 players under 10% owned.  Total over 4 slates is 75% used 4 under 10%, 25% used 2 under 10%.

That is our look at last night and the season. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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