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MLB DFS Lineup Study 4/12/2022

MLB DFS

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings as well as the popular 150 max tournament on Fanduel.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Welcome to day 5 of MLB Lineup Study.  Come join me, as well as some of the best minds in the business, in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-mlb channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

For the MLB lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the MLB Relay Throw 150 max and the MLB Four-Seamer 20 max tournaments on Draftkings and we are also looking at the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament on Fanduel.  Please note, I am only looking at Main slates for each site.   

The fun part of this time of year is that the NHL is still playing that hockey!  Team Rise or Fall has their Study Hub free today on the website, just click here and it will take you right to it! https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs-study-hub/ .  Also, check out the rest of the Team Rise or Fall Hockey coverage including Detroit Beastie’s Hot Pucking Stacks article which he updates daily!

For today’s study, I do want to note, we are very early in the year.  Trends are only beginning to emerge, but some are starting to take shape.  As the season goes on, we will see more trends develop and this article will stay in a fluid state of change as I want to bring the trends that matter to you, the reader.  I am looking for feedback, so feel free to leave me comments in the TROF Discord and let me know what you think could be added or subtracted, or just to tell me you love the content! 

Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.

DRAFTKINGS LINEUP STUDY

Last night the 2 winning lineups used 14 batters and 3 pitchers combined.    

Hitter Projections – Last night 14 out of 14 hitters had a projection over 5.  Total over 5 slates is 95%.  Last night 6 out of 14 hitters had a projection over 7.  Total over 5 slates is 68%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 13 out of 14 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 5 slates is 86%. I am going to start looking at higher ratings coming soon! For now though, last night 6 out of 14 players had a Rating over 60.

Hitter 85% – Last night 7 out of 14 players had an 85% percentile rating of over 20. Total over 5 slates is 75%.

A or B – 8 out of 14 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 5 slates is 58%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 8 out of 14 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 67%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 2 out of 14 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 33%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 3 out of 14 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 46%.  2 out of 14 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 25%. 

Stack size – Last night we saw a 4/4 and a 5/2 stack from the winners.  So far this season we have seen stack sizes of all types winning tournaments with 7 different stack types winning in the first 5 days.  A 5/2 stack being the only stack type to win more than once and it has been in a winning lineup 3 times or 33% of the time.   

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night the winners all used 2 gaps in their stacks, this includes both 4 stacks and the 5 stack we saw the winner’s use. 

Batting order of Main Stack – I am going to revamp this section; I think I figured out a better way to look at which spots in the batting order the stacks are using on DK.  Stay tuned.    

Total Lineup Salary – Last night total lineup salary was $47,900 and $47,000 by the winners.  Total over 5 slates is crazy as 7 different salaries have been used.  I can tell you that 44% of winners have been over $49,500 while 33% of winners were between $49,200 and $49,500 and 22% of the winning lineups (both last night) used below $49,000.

Pitchers Salary – Pitchers combined salary used was $16,800 and $18,200 by the winners.  Total over 5 slates is 56% used combined pitcher salary between $15,000 and $17,000, 33% used between $17,000 and $19,000 on pitchers and 11% used below $15,000 on their pitchers. 

Individual Pitcher Salary – Last night the winners used salaries of $10,200, $8,000, and $6,700 in their lineups.  Total over 5 slates for individual pitcher salary is 38% used between $7,000 and $8,000, 31% used between $8,000 and $10,000, 25% used above $10,000, and 6% used under $7,000.

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – 2 pitchers were between 50% and 60% Vegas projected win%, and 1 pitcher was under 50%.  Total over 5 slates is 44% between 50% and 60%, 31% were above $60%, and 25% under 50%. 

Vegas Opp run total – 1 pitcher was above 4.5 and 2 pitchers were between 4.0 and 4.5.  Total over 5 slates is 44% under 4.0, 31% above 4.5, and 25% between 4.0 and 4.5.

Pitcher K% – 2 pitchers had a K% between 20% and 25% and 1 pitcher had a K% over 30%.  Total over 5 slates is 44% between 20% and 25%, 31% between 25% and 30%, 13% under 20%, and 13% above 30%.

Pitcher Opponent K% – All 3 pitchers had an opponent K% of between 20% and 25%.  Total over 5 slates is 69% between 20% and 25%, 19% between 25% and 30%, and 13% under 20%.

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winners had 87.2 and 120 total ownership used respectively.  Total for 5 slates is 56% have used between 100 and 125, 33% have used between 150 and 175, and 11% were under 100. 

Ownership – Last night the winners used 7 and 6 players under 10% owned respectively.  I am keeping my eyes open for any trend to develop here. 

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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FANDUEL LINEUP STUDY

For Fanduel lineup study we are only looking at the winner of the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament.  The winning lineup will always have 8 hitters and 1 pitcher.  Keep in mind, the numbers represent only players from the winning lineups. 

Hitter Projections – Last night 4 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 9.  Total over 5 slates is 88%.  Last night 2 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 10.  Total over 5 slates is 65%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 7 out of 8 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 5 slates is 85%.

A or B – 1 out of 8 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 5 slates is 43%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 4 out of 8 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 68%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 1 out of 8 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 35%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 2 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 50%.  2 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 5 slates is 43%.  BONUS – 30% of players have had a .300 ISO over their last 50 plate appearances. 

Utility Spot – Last night the winner used a C1B eligible player in the utility spot.  Total over 5 slates is 40% used a C1B, 40% used a 3B, and 20% used a SS elgible player. 

Stack size – Last night we saw a 4/4 stack used by the winner.  Total over 5 slates is 4/4 was used 40%, 4/3 was used 20%, 4/2 was used 20%, and “other” stacks were used 20%. 

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night the winner used a 1 and a 2 Gap in their 4 man stacks, Total over 5 slates is 50% used 0 Gap, 33% used 2 Gap and 17% used a 1 Gap.   

Batting order of Main Stack – last night the 4 man stacks used players batting 2,4,5,6 and 2,3,4,8 in the main stacks. 

Total Lineup Salary – Last night the total lineup salary was 32,500.  Total over 5 slates is 40% used $34,700, 20% used $34,900, and 20% used $34,000, and 20% used under $34,000. 

Pitchers Salary – Pitchers salary used was $9,900 by the winner.  Total over 5 slates is 80% used pitcher salary between $8,000 and $10,000 and 20% used over $10,000 for their pitcher. 

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – The winning pitcher had a 45.5% Vegas Win projection.  Total over 5 slates is 60% between 50% and 60%, 20% above 60%, and 20% below 50%. 

Vegas Opp run total – The winning pitcher had a 4.72 projected run total for their opponent.  Total over 5 slates is 40% under 4.0, 20% between 4.0 and 4.5, and 40% above 4.5.

Pitcher K% – The winning pitcher had a K% of 26.82.  Total over 5 slates is 40% between 25% and 30%, 20% between 20% and 25%, 20% above 30%, 25% under 20%.

Pitcher Opponent K% – The winning pitcher had an opponent K% of 23.99%.  Total over 5 slates is 40% between 25% and 30%, 40% between 20% and 25%, and 20% below 20%. 

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winner had a 46.7 total lineup ownership.  Total over 5 slates is 40% have used between 100 and 125, 40% used under 100, and 20% have used between 125 and 150. 

Ownership – Last night the winner used 7 players under 10% owned.  Total over 5 slates is 60% used 4 under 10%, 20% used 2 under 10%, 20% used 7 under 10%.

That is our look at last night and the season. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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